Betting On The NFL Draft
Are you one of the lucky ones in a legal jurisdiction where you can place on the NFL Draft? Well, congrats! Here are a few notes to help you make better bets.
(Note: If you are able to wager in New Jersey or Indiana, we recommend signing up to SugarHouse NJ or BetRivers IN, respectively, and use promo code MATCH250 to get up 100% on your first deposit up to $250)
What type of bets are there?
Total bets are just that -- you bet “over” or “under” a number. For example, you can bet the total number of quarterbacks drafted in the first round. If there are five or more QBs drafted in the first round the “over” wins. Likewise, if there are four or less, the “under” wins.
Draft position bets are similar to total bets in that you pick over or under, but it is for a specific player’s draft position. For example, over/under 5.5 Tua Tagovailoa’s draft position. If Tua is drafted sixth or later, the “over” will win. Otherwise, if Tua is drafted fifth or earlier, the “under” will win.
Draft matchups is where you pick which player will be drafted first. For example, Jake Fromm versus Jalen Hurts. If Jake Fromm is drafted before Jalen Hurts, Jake Fromm is declared the winner.
First at a position to be drafted
For example, first running back to be drafted.
NFL Draft Betting Tips
Different books -- for many reasons -- have different betting lines for the same event. At the time of this writing, at PointsBet NJ, Jerry Jeudy is -115 to be the first WR drafted (risk $115 to win $100). However at SugarHouse NJ, that same wager is +120 (risk $100 to win $125). That is a difference in probability of 8%. You should be line shopping at all the sportsbooks you have for every wager you make.
Avoid heavy favorites
With everything going on, there haven’t been any team visits/pro days/etc. As a result, this draft is likely going to drift pretty far from consensus mock drafts. Try and avoid large favorites (-500 and above). If something crazy happens and you lose one of them, your entire night’s profit can be erased.
Look for middles / arbitrages
Betting a middle, you hope to hit in between two numbers on the same bet to win both. An example would be the following:
- $110 on Jake Fromm draft position over 60.5 -110
- $110 on Jake Fromm draft position under 69.5 -110
In this scenario, if Jake Fromm’s draft position is between 61 and 68, you will with both bets (+$200). If it is not, you will only lose the vig from one wager (-$10).
With arbitrages, you will win -- albeit a little bit -- no matter what happens. While at this time of writing there are no arbitrage opportunities, an example would betting the following:
- $100 on Cole Kmet draft position over 44.5 +115
- $110 on Cole Kmet draft position under 44.5 -110
In this scenario, if Kmet’s draft position is over 44.5 you will profit $5 (+$115 - $110) while losing nothing if it’s under 44.5.
Be careful. Some sportsbooks do not like players who do middles or arbitrages. Please make sure to read any terms and conditions to see what is allowed at various sportsbooks.
(Reminder: If you are able to wager in New Jersey or Indiana, we recommend signing up to SugarHouse NJ or BetRivers IN, respectively, and use promo code MATCH250 to get up 100% on your first deposit up to $250)
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