How to Bet UFC 251: Usman vs Masvidal Predictions
by Moose Jester
Are you one of the lucky ones in a legal jurisdiction where you can place on the tonight's UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Volkov? Well, congrats! Here are a few notes and predictions to help you make better bets. Be sure to read all the way to the end for my top UFC Fight Night bets.
Note: If you live in and are able to wager in New Jersey, Indiana or Colorado, we recommend signing up to SugarHouse New Jersey, BetRivers Indiana, or BetRivers Colorado, respectively, and use promo code 250MATCH to get up 100% on your first deposit up to $250.
What type of bets are there?
Moneyline
Probably the most popular type of bets because it’s the simplest. Pick which fighter will win.
Total Rounds
Total round wagers are just that -- the total number of rounds a fight will go and is mostly in half-points (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5). A half a round is considered to be the midpoint in the round (2 minutes 30 seconds). I have never seen a sportsbook use any other definition, but always make sure to read the house rules to make sure this is correct.
In the market below, under is the winner if the fight ends before 2:30 in the second round. If the fight continues past the 2:30 mark in the second round, then the over is the winner.
To Go The Distance
This type of wager is a Yes/No type prop where Yes is the winner if the fight finishes all rounds and goes to the judges (‘the distance’). If the fight does not, then No will be the winner.
Other bet types
While the three listed above are the most popular, they are not the only bet types, including Winning Method (e.g. fighter to win by submission), Winning Round (e.g. Fighter to win in Round 1), and many more. Go check them out!
Betting strategies
Tell a story
Just like we always say in DFS, make sure your bets tell a story. Don’t bet a fighter to win by decision as well as the fight won’t go to decision. The only time something like this makes sense is if both bets are large underdogs.
Don’t double down on the same outcome
Just like telling a story and just like we say in our annual Super Bowl Props Guide, if you’re making small wagers don’t double down on what is essentially the same outcome.
An example of this would be betting over 4.5 rounds and betting the fight to go to a decision. Another example would be a fighter to win by decision and over 2.5 rounds. Pick the one you’re most confident in and stick with that.
Line shopping
I will continue to talk about line shopping until the day I die. Different books -- for many reasons -- have different betting lines for the same event. I looked at a few sportsbooks in New Jersey at the main event of the night (Usman/Masvidal), the first fight of the night (Day/Grant) and compared the odds. The best is in green; the worst is in red.
| Sportsbook | Moneyline Usman / Masivdal |
Over/under 4.5 Rounds |
| BetMGM (CO/IN/NJ) | -239 / +195 | +115 / -143 |
| PointsBet (NJ/IN) | -250 / +195 | +106 / -136 |
| SugarHouse (NJ) | -240 / +190 | +104 / -139 |
| Sportsbook | Moneyline Day / Grant |
Over/under 2.5 Rounds |
| BetMGM (CO/IN/NJ) | -164 / +135 | -200 / +160 |
| PointsBet (NJ/IN) | -170 / +135 | -228 / +175 |
| SugarHouse (NJ) | -162 / +130 | -220 / +165 |
I know it is only a difference in a few cents, but over time the cents add up. You should be line shopping at all the sportsbooks you have for every wager you make.
BOOSTERS
Below are a list of booster bets from our partnered sportsbooks. If you're a new user, you really should take part in these, as they are great bankroll builders.
PlaySugarhouse
- Usman to win by KO/TKO +250 (boosted from +200) (New Jersey only)
BetRivers Indiana
- Usman to win by KO/TKO +250 (booted from +200) (Indiana only)
BetRivers Colorado
- Usman to win by KO/TKO +250 (booted from +200) (Colorado only)
BetMGM
- Bet $1 Win $100 if Usman Wins! Paid in free bets (Colorado and Indiana only)
- Sign up using our link, deposit at least $10, and make your first a $1 moneyline wager on Usman.
- Within 24 hours you will receive $100 in free bets, will be broken down into two (2) $50 free bets.
PointsBet
- Usman to win -180 (boosted from -300)* (Iowa, Indiana and New Jersey)
- This is a ($50 max) bet on Usman to win vs Masvidal at UFC 251. The price will increase after 100 bets on the market. ALL bets will be settled at the final price of the market. Spread the word to increase the Final Price!
- Volkanov to win by submission or on points +100 (boosted from -120) (Iowa and Indiana only)
- Amanda Ribas and Rose Namajunas both to win -145 (boosted from -155) (Iowa and Indiana only)
- Petr Yan / Jose Aldo fight to end in a KO/TKO -110 (boosted from -135) (Iowa and Indiana only)
Favorite Bets
We're up +4.43 units since posting our original article. Let's keep it going!
- Kamaru Usman -240 (two unit play if you can get -200 or better) LIVE IN COLORADO? BET THIS NOW AT BETRIVERS
- Martin Day by submission +500
LIVE IN NEW JERSEY, INDIANA, OR COLORADO? BET THIS NOW AT BETMGM - Holloway +180
LIVE IN NEW JERSEY, INDIANA, OR COLORADO? BET THIS NOW AT BETMGM - Rose Namajunas to win in round 1 +500
LIVE IN NEW JERSEY? BET THIS NOW AT SUGARHOUSE - Elizeu dos Santos to win by KO +1200 LIVE IN NEW JERSEY, INDIANA, OR IOWA? BET THIS NOW AT POINTSBET
Note: If you are able to wager in New Jersey, Indiana or Colorado, we recommend signing up to SugarHouse New Jersey, BetRivers Indiana, or BetRivers Colorado, respectively, and use promo code 250MATCH to get up 100% on your first deposit up to $250
Sports Betting Disclaimers
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER, or visit 800Gambler.org.
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-9-WITH-IT. Playable only in Indiana. Must be 21+.
MUST BE 21+ • PLAY IN COLORADO ONLY • GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-522-4700