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How To Bet UFC 253: Betting Odds and Predictions

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How To Bet UFC 253: Betting Odds and Predictions

How To Bet UFC 253 9/26: Odds and Predictions for UFC 253

by Moose Jester

Are you one of the lucky ones in a legal jurisdiction where you can place on the tonight's UFC 253? Well, congrats! Here are a few notes and predictions to help you make better bets. Be sure to read all the way to the end for my top UFC 253 bets. 

Note: If you live in and are able to wager in New Jersey, Indiana or Colorado, we recommend signing up to SugarHouse New Jersey, BetRivers Indiana, or BetRivers Colorado, respectively, and use promo code 250MATCH to get up 100% on your first deposit up to $250.

What type of bets are there?

Moneyline

Probably the most popular type of bets because it’s the simplest. Pick which fighter will win.

Total Rounds

Total round wagers are just that -- the total number of rounds a fight will go and is mostly in half-points (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5). A half a round is considered to be the midpoint in the round (2 minutes 30 seconds). I have never seen a sportsbook use any other definition, but always make sure to read the house rules to make sure this is correct.

In the market below, under is the winner if the fight ends before 2:30 in the second round. If the fight continues past the 2:30 mark in the second round, then the over is the winner.

To Go The Distance

This type of wager is a Yes/No type prop where Yes is the winner if the fight finishes all rounds and goes to the judges (‘the distance’). If the fight does not, then No will be the winner.

Other bet types

While the three listed above are the most popular, they are not the only bet types, including Winning Method (e.g. fighter to win by submission), Winning Round (e.g. Fighter to win in Round 1), and many more. Go check them out!

Betting strategies

Tell a story

Just like we always say in DFS, make sure your bets tell a story. Don’t bet a fighter to win by decision as well as the fight won’t go to decision. The only time something like this makes sense is if both bets are large underdogs.

Don’t double down on the same outcome

Just like telling a story and just like we say in our annual Super Bowl Props Guide, if you’re making small wagers don’t double down on what is essentially the same outcome. 

An example of this would be betting over 4.5 rounds and betting the fight to go to a decision. Another example would be a fighter to win by decision and over 2.5 rounds. Pick the one you’re most confident in and stick with that.

Line shopping

I will continue to talk about line shopping until the day I die. Different books -- for many reasons -- have different betting lines for the same event. I looked at a few sportsbooks acorss the US and their odds are listed below. You can click either the logo or the individual odd to be taken to that sportsbook page.

 

Fight #
Time (ET)		 NSS Fighters (OF Index)













NJ CO/IL/IN CO NJ CO/IN/NJ IA/IN/NJ NJ
11
11:59 PM		 24805 Paulo Costa (102) +151 +151 +158 +150 +150 +146 +155
24806 Israel Adesanya (82) -186 -186 -164 -182 -182 -185 -180
24807 Total Rounds OVER 4.5 +200 4.5 +200 2.5 -152 4.5 +145 4.5 +145 2.5 -152 2.5 -150
24808 Total Rounds UNDER 4.5 -280 4.5 -280 2.5 +120 4.5 -176 4.5 -176 2.5 +119 2.5 110
10
11:40 PM		 24809 Jan Blachowicz (78) +215 +215 +230 +225 +225 +215 +220
24810 Dominick Reyes (107) -265 -265 -233 -278 -278 -280 -270
24811 Total Rounds OVER 4.5 +165 4.5 +165 2.5 -145 4.5 +165 4.5 +165 2.5 -136 2.5 -138
24812 Total Rounds UNDER 4.5 -215 4.5 -215 2.5 +114 4.5 -200 4.5 -200 2.5 +106 2.5 +100
9
11:10 PM		 24819 Brandon Royval (45) +188 +188 +200 +200 +200 +180 +190
24820 Kai Kara-France (73) -240 -240 -213 -250 -250 -230 -230
24821 Total Rounds OVER 2.5 -190 2.5 -190 2.5 -182 2.5 -200 2.5 -200 2.5 -186 2.5 -200
24822 Total Rounds UNDER 2.5 +140 2.5 +140 2.5 +142 2.5 +165 2.5 +165 2.5 +144 2.5 +150
7
10:10 PM		 24827 Hakeem Dawodu (50) +115 +115 +116 +120 +120 +113 +120
24828 Zubaira Tukhugov (62) -143 -143 -122 -143 -143 -140 -140
24829 Total Rounds OVER 2.5 -215 2.5 -215 2.5 -204 2.5 -223 2.5 -223 2.5 -209 2.5 -225
24830 Total Rounds UNDER 2.5 +160 2.5 +160 2.5 +156 2.5 +180 2.5 +180 2.5 +160 2.5 +163
5
9:05 PM		 24831 Diego Sanchez (41) +470 +470 +460 +500 +500 +500 +500
24832 Jake Matthews (106) -715 -715 -667 -715 -715 -800 -700
24833 Total Rounds OVER 2.5 -152 2.5 -152 2.5 -130 2.5 -167 2.5 -167 2.5 -170 2.5 -188
24834 Total Rounds UNDER 2.5 +116 2.5 +116 2.5 +102 2.5 +140 2.5 +140 2.5 +132 2.5 +138
6
9:35 PM		 24839 Alex Da Silva (62) +253 +253 +290 +250 +250 +240 +260
24840 Brad Riddell (101) -335 -335 -303 -313 -313 -325 -330
24841 Total Rounds OVER 2.5 -106 2.5 -106 2.5 +106 2.5 -110 2.5 -110 2.5 +106 2.5 -120
24842 Total Rounds UNDER 2.5 -124 2.5 -124 2.5 -135 2.5 -110 2.5 -110 2.5 -136 2.5 -120
3
8:05 PM		 24847 William Knight (83) +134 +134 +142 +135 +135 +135 +135
24848 Aleksa Camur (88) -167 -167 -147 -162 -162 -170 -160
24849 Total Rounds OVER 1.5 -134 1.5 -134 1.5 -139 2.5 +155 2.5 +155 1.5 -124 1.5 -125
24850 Total Rounds UNDER 1.5 +101 1.5 +101 1.5 +108 2.5 -189 2.5 -189 1.5 -104 1.5 -110
2
7:35 PM		 24851 Jeff Hughes (54) +233 +233 +235 +245 +245 +210 +240
24852 Juan Espino (116) -305 -305 -256 -313 -313 -300 -300
24853 Total Rounds OVER 1.5 -155 1.5 -155 1.5 -164 2.5 +125 2.5 +125 1.5 -170 1.5 -150
24854 Total Rounds UNDER 1.5 +117 1.5 +117 1.5 +128 2.5 -152 2.5 -152 1.5 +132 1.5 +110
1
7:10 PM		 24855 Danilo Marques (69) +150 +150 +158 +150 +150 +146 +155
24856 Khadis Ibragimov (96) -186 -186 -169 -182 -182 -185 -180
24857 Total Rounds OVER 2.5 +116 2.5 +116 2.5 +114 2.5 +100 2.5 +100 2.5 +111 2.5 -120
24858 Total Rounds UNDER 2.5 -152 2.5 -152 2.5 -145 2.5 -121 2.5 -121 2.5 -141 2.5 -120
4
8:35 PM		 24859 Ludovit Klein (58) -129 -129 -118 -125 -125 -130 -130
24860 Shane Young (76) +108 +108 +108 +105 +105 +105 +110
24861 Total Rounds OVER 2.5 -105 2.5 -105 2.5 -114 2.5 -110 2.5 -110 2.5 -108 2.5 -110
24862 Total Rounds UNDER 2.5 -124 2.5 -124 2.5 -111 2.5 -110 2.5 -110 2.5 -118 2.5 -125
8
10:40 PM		 24863 Sijara Eubanks (57) +150 +150 +164 +165 +165 +150 +160
24864 Ketlen Vieira (75) -190 -190 -172 -200 -200 -190 -190
24865 Total Rounds OVER 2.5 -345 2.5 -345 2.5 -333 2.5 -313 2.5 -313 2.5 -358 2.5 -333
24866 Total Rounds UNDER 2.5 +240 2.5 +240 2.5 +245 2.5 +245 2.5 +245 2.5 +260 2.5 +240


Below are a list of booster bets from our partnered sportsbooks. If you're a new user, you really should take part in these, as they are great bankroll builders:

BOOSTERS

PlaySugarhouse (New Jersey Only)

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BetRivers Colorado

BetRivers Illinois

BetMGM

PointsBet

Favorite Bets

After going +1.15 units last week, we're up +6.76 units since posting our original article. Let's keep it going!

  • Espino to win by submission +150
    LIVE IN NEW JERSEY? BET THIS NOW AT WILLIAM HILL
  • Riddell to win by KO/TKO +170
    LIVE IN INDIANA OR NEW JERSEY? BET THIS NOW AT POINTSBET
  • Kara-France to win by decision -109
    LIVE IN INDIANA OR NEW JERSEY? BET THIS NOW AT POINTSBET
  • Ibragmiov / Marques to NOT go the distance -165
    LIVE IN NEW JERSEY? BET THIS NOW AT SUGARHOUSE
  • Knight / Camur to NOT go the distance -223
    LIVE IN COLORADO, INDIANA, OR NEW JERSEY? BET THIS NOW AT BETMGM
  • Reyes / Blachowicz over 2.5 rounds -121
    LIVE IN COLORADO, INDIANA, OR NEW JERSEY? BET THIS NOW AT BETMGM

Note: If you are able to wager in New Jersey, Indiana or Colorado, we recommend signing up to SugarHouse New Jersey, BetRivers Indiana, or BetRivers Colorado, respectively, and use promo code 250MATCH to get up 100% on your first deposit up to $250

Sports Betting Disclaimers
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