How To Bet UFC 254 10/23: Odds and Predictions for UFC 254
by Moose Jester
Are you one of the lucky ones in a legal jurisdiction where you can place on the tonight's UFC 254? Well, congrats! Here are a few notes and predictions to help you make better bets. Be sure to read all the way to the end for my top UFC 254 bets.
Note: If you live in and are able to wager in New Jersey, Indiana or Colorado, we recommend signing up to SugarHouse New Jersey, BetRivers Indiana, or BetRivers Colorado, respectively, and use promo code 250MATCH to get up 100% on your first deposit up to $250.
What type of bets are there?
Moneyline
Probably the most popular type of bets because it’s the simplest. Pick which fighter will win.
Total Rounds
Total round wagers are just that -- the total number of rounds a fight will go and is mostly in half-points (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5). A half a round is considered to be the midpoint in the round (2 minutes 30 seconds). I have never seen a sportsbook use any other definition, but always make sure to read the house rules to make sure this is correct.
In the market below, under is the winner if the fight ends before 2:30 in the second round. If the fight continues past the 2:30 mark in the second round, then the over is the winner.
To Go The Distance
This type of wager is a Yes/No type prop where Yes is the winner if the fight finishes all rounds and goes to the judges (‘the distance’). If the fight does not, then No will be the winner.
Other bet types
While the three listed above are the most popular, they are not the only bet types, including Winning Method (e.g. fighter to win by submission), Winning Round (e.g. Fighter to win in Round 1), and many more. Go check them out!
Betting strategies
Tell a story
Just like we always say in DFS, make sure your bets tell a story. Don’t bet a fighter to win by decision as well as the fight won’t go to decision. The only time something like this makes sense is if both bets are large underdogs.
Don’t double down on the same outcome
Just like telling a story and just like we say in our annual Super Bowl Props Guide, if you’re making small wagers don’t double down on what is essentially the same outcome.
An example of this would be betting over 4.5 rounds and betting the fight to go to a decision. Another example would be a fighter to win by decision and over 2.5 rounds. Pick the one you’re most confident in and stick with that.
Line shopping
I will continue to talk about line shopping until the day I die. Different books -- for many reasons -- have different betting lines for the same event. I looked at a few sportsbooks acorss the US and their odds are listed below. You can click either the logo or the individual odd to be taken to that sportsbook page.
Justin Gaethje (83)
Khabib Nurmagomedov (145)
Robert Whittaker (60)
Ion Cutelaba (48)
Stefan Struve (56)
Da-Un Jung (83)
Liliya Shakirova (63)
Shavkat Rakhmonov (83)
Alex Oliveira (91)
Nathaniel Wood (87)
Joel Alvarez (62)
Below are a list of booster bets from our partnered sportsbooks. If you're a new user, you really should take part in these, as they are great bankroll builders:
BOOSTERS
PlaySugarhouse (New Jersey Only)
BetRivers Indiana
- Any Main Card fight to end within 60 seconds (UFC 254, 10/24) +300
- Over 1.5 Main Card Fights to End in Round 1 (UFC 254, 10/24) -130
- Tai Tuivasa and Alex Oliveira Both to Win (UFC 254, 10/24) +260
- Magomed Ankalev, Lauren Murphy, and Alexander Volkov all to Win (UFC 254, 10/24) +195
- Robert Whittaker to win by KO/TKO/DQ (UFC 254, 10/24) +300
- Justin Gaethje to win Inside the Distance (UFC 254, 10/24) +350
- Khabib Nurmagomedov to win in Rounds 1-3 (UFC, 10/24) +130
BetRivers Colorado
- Any Main Card fight to end within 60 seconds (UFC 254, 10/24) +300
- Over 1.5 Main Card Fights to End in Round 1 (UFC 254, 10/24) -130
- Tai Tuivasa and Alex Oliveira Both to Win (UFC 254, 10/24) +260
- Magomed Ankalev, Lauren Murphy, and Alexander Volkov all to Win (UFC 254, 10/24) +195
- Robert Whittaker to win by KO/TKO/DQ (UFC 254, 10/24) +300
- Justin Gaethje to win Inside the Distance (UFC 254, 10/24) +350
- Khabib Nurmagomedov to win in Rounds 1-3 (UFC, 10/24) +130
BetRivers Illinois
- Any Main Card fight to end within 60 seconds (UFC 254, 10/24) +300
- Over 1.5 Main Card Fights to End in Round 1 (UFC 254, 10/24) -130
- Tai Tuivasa and Alex Oliveira Both to Win (UFC 254, 10/24) +260
- Magomed Ankalev, Lauren Murphy, and Alexander Volkov all to Win (UFC 254, 10/24) +195
- Robert Whittaker to win by KO/TKO/DQ (UFC 254, 10/24) +300
- Justin Gaethje to win Inside the Distance (UFC 254, 10/24) +350
- Khabib Nurmagomedov to win in Rounds 1-3 (UFC, 10/24) +130
BetMGM
PointsBet
Favorite Bets
- Lauren Murphy ML -195
LIVE IN NEW JERSEY OR COLORADO? BET THIS NOW AT WILLIAM HILL - Lauren Murphy to win by finish +450
LIVE IN NEW JERSEY? BET THIS NOW AT SUGARHOUSE - Sam Alvey to win by KO/TKO/DQ +500
LIVE IN NEW JERSEY? BET THIS NOW AT SUGARHOUSE - Casey Kenny / Nathaniel Wood NOT go the distance +150
LIVE IN NEW JERSEY? BET THIS NOW AT SUGARHOUSE - Jacob Malkoun ML +200
LIVE IN COLORADO? BET THIS NOW AT SPORTSBETTING - Khabib Nurmagomedov win in rounds 1-2 +325
LIVE IN NEW JERSEY? BET THIS NOW AT SUGARHOUSE
Note: If you are able to wager in New Jersey, Indiana or Colorado, we recommend signing up to SugarHouse New Jersey, BetRivers Indiana, or BetRivers Colorado, respectively, and use promo code 250MATCH to get up 100% on your first deposit up to $250
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