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How To Bet UFC 254 10/23: Odds and Predictions for UFC 254

by Moose Jester

Are you one of the lucky ones in a legal jurisdiction where you can place on the tonight's UFC 254? Well, congrats! Here are a few notes and predictions to help you make better bets. Be sure to read all the way to the end for my top UFC 254 bets. 

Note: If you live in and are able to wager in New Jersey, Indiana or Colorado, we recommend signing up to SugarHouse New JerseyBetRivers Indiana, or BetRivers Colorado, respectively, and use promo code 250MATCH to get up 100% on your first deposit up to $250.

What type of bets are there?

Moneyline

Probably the most popular type of bets because it’s the simplest. Pick which fighter will win.

Total Rounds

Total round wagers are just that -- the total number of rounds a fight will go and is mostly in half-points (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5). A half a round is considered to be the midpoint in the round (2 minutes 30 seconds). I have never seen a sportsbook use any other definition, but always make sure to read the house rules to make sure this is correct.

In the market below, under is the winner if the fight ends before 2:30 in the second round. If the fight continues past the 2:30 mark in the second round, then the over is the winner.

To Go The Distance

This type of wager is a Yes/No type prop where Yes is the winner if the fight finishes all rounds and goes to the judges (‘the distance’). If the fight does not, then No will be the winner.

Other bet types

While the three listed above are the most popular, they are not the only bet types, including Winning Method (e.g. fighter to win by submission), Winning Round (e.g. Fighter to win in Round 1), and many more. Go check them out!

Betting strategies

Tell a story

Just like we always say in DFS, make sure your bets tell a story. Don’t bet a fighter to win by decision as well as the fight won’t go to decision. The only time something like this makes sense is if both bets are large underdogs.

Don’t double down on the same outcome

Just like telling a story and just like we say in our annual Super Bowl Props Guide, if you’re making small wagers don’t double down on what is essentially the same outcome. 

An example of this would be betting over 4.5 rounds and betting the fight to go to a decision. Another example would be a fighter to win by decision and over 2.5 rounds. Pick the one you’re most confident in and stick with that.

Line shopping

I will continue to talk about line shopping until the day I die. Different books -- for many reasons -- have different betting lines for the same event. I looked at a few sportsbooks acorss the US and their odds are listed below. You can click either the logo or the individual odd to be taken to that sportsbook page.

 

Fight #
Time (ET)
NSS Fighters (OF Index)















NJ CO/IL/IN CO CO NJ CO/IN/NJ IA/IN/NJ NJ
12
4:15 PM
24801 Justin Gaethje (83) +265 +265 +260 +240 +275 +275 +270 +270
24802 Khabib Nurmagomedov (145) -335 -335 -294 -304 -358 -358 -371 -340
24803 Total Rounds OVER 4.5 +150 4.5 +150 4.5 +152 4.5 +162 4.5 +160 4.5 +160 4.5 +155 4.5 +138
24804 Total Rounds UNDER 4.5 -200 4.5 -200 4.5 -196 4.5 -228 4.5 -193 4.5 -193 4.5 -200 4.5 -188
11
3:50 PM
24805 Jared Cannonier (60) -110 -110 -103 -112 -121 -121 -115 -115
24806 Robert Whittaker (60) -110 -110 +102 -112 +100 +100 -110 -105
24807 Total Rounds OVER 2.5 -115 2.5 -115 2.5 -111 XX 2.5 -105 2.5 -105 2.5 -114 2.5 -110
24808 Total Rounds UNDER 2.5 -120 2.5 -120 2.5 -116 XX 2.5 -117 2.5 -117 2.5 -113 2.5 -125
10
3:25 PM
24809 Walt Harris (56) +150 +150 +156 +150 +155 +155 +150 +155
24810 Alexander Volkov (75) -190 -190 -164 -182 -189 -189 -190 -180
24811 Total Rounds OVER 2.5 +100 2.5 +100 2.5 +110 XX 2.5 +115 2.5 +115 2.5 +111 2.5 +110
24812 Total Rounds UNDER 2.5 -134 2.5 -134 2.5 -135 XX 2.5 -139 2.5 -139 2.5 -141 2.5 -150
7
2:10 PM
24827 Ion Cutelaba (48) +250 +250 +275 +240 +250 +250 +240 +260
24828 Magomed Ankalaev (73) -335 -335 -303 -304 -313 -313 -325 -330
24829 Total Rounds OVER 1.5 -134 1.5 -134 1.5 -118 XX 2.5 +180 2.5 +180 1.5 -129 1.5 -125
24830 Total Rounds UNDER 1.5 +100 1.5 +100 1.5 +102 XX 2.5 -223 2.5 -223 1.5 +102 1.5 -110
9
3:00 PM
24831 Jacob Malkoun (63) +195 +195 +200 +200 +200 +200 +200 +210
24832 Phillip Hawes (78) -250 -250 -222 -251 -250 -250 -260 -260
24833 Total Rounds OVER 1.5 -137 1.5 -137 1.5 -123 XX 2.5 +155 2.5 +155 1.5 -136 1.5 -138
24834 Total Rounds UNDER 1.5 +100 1.5 +100 1.5 +110 XX 2.5 -189 2.5 -189 1.5 +106 1.5 +100
6
1:30 PM
24835 Tai Tuivasa (59) -124 -124 -116 XX -115 -115 -120 -120
24836 Stefan Struve (56) +100 +100 +112 XX -106 -106 -105 +100
24837 Total Rounds OVER 1.5 -141 1.5 -141 1.5 -133 XX 2.5 +145 2.5 +145 1.5 -136 1.5 -150
24838 Total Rounds UNDER 1.5 +105 1.5 +105 1.5 +104 XX 2.5 -176 2.5 -176 1.5 +105 1.5 +110
3
12:10 PM
24843 Sam Alvey (36) +260 +260 +310 XX +275 +275 +260 +280
24844 Da-Un Jung (83) -345 -345 -323 XX -358 -358 -350 -360
24845 Total Rounds OVER 1.5 -152 1.5 -152 1.5 -154 XX 2.5 +160 2.5 +160 1.5 -162 1.5 -120
24846 Total Rounds UNDER 1.5 +115 1.5 +115 1.5 +124 XX 2.5 -193 2.5 -193 1.5 +126 1.5 -120
2
11:35 AM
24847 Liana Jojua (63) +310 +310 +310 XX +325 +325 +310 +340
24848 Miranda Maverick (129) -420 -420 -333 XX -417 -417 -425 -440
24849 Total Rounds OVER 2.5 -115 2.5 -115 2.5 -104 XX 2.5 -110 2.5 -110 2.5 -104 2.5 -120
24850 Total Rounds UNDER 2.5 -115 2.5 -115 2.5 -119 XX 2.5 -110 2.5 -110 2.5 -124 2.5 -120
8
2:35 PM
24859 Liliya Shakirova (63) +170 +170 +182 +180 +190 +190 +190 +165
24860 Lauren Murphy (73) -215 -215 -192 -223 -239 -239 -271 -195
24861 Total Rounds OVER 2.5 -455 2.5 -455 2.5 -435 XX 2.5 -400 2.5 -400 2.5 -455 2.5 -450
24862 Total Rounds UNDER 2.5 +300 2.5 +300 2.5 +300 XX 2.5 +310 2.5 +310 2.5 +310 2.5 +320
4
12:35 PM
24863 Shavkat Rakhmonov (83) -124 -124 -109 XX -121 -121 -120 -120
24864 Alex Oliveira (91) +100 +100 +104 XX +100 +100 -105 +100
24865 Total Rounds OVER 2.5 -134 2.5 -134 2.5 -135 XX 2.5 -159 2.5 -159 2.5 -129 2.5 -175
24866 Total Rounds UNDER 2.5 +100 2.5 +100 2.5 +106 XX 2.5 +130 2.5 +130 2.5 +102 2.5 +125
5
1:00 PM
24867 Casey Kenney (70) -177 -177 -156 XX -182 -182 -185 -170
24868 Nathaniel Wood (87) +140 +140 +152 XX +150 +150 +146 +145
24869 Total Rounds OVER 2.5 -240 2.5 -240 2.5 -233 XX 2.5 -209 2.5 -209 2.5 -228 2.5 -225
24870 Total Rounds UNDER 2.5 +175 2.5 +175 2.5 +174 XX 2.5 +170 2.5 +170 2.5 +175 2.5 +163
1
11:10 AM
24871 Joel Alvarez (62) -175 -175 -152 XX -176 -176 -175 -170
24872 Alexander Yakovlev (59) +138 +138 +146 XX +145 +145 +140 +145
24873 Total Rounds OVER 2.5 +110 2.5 +110 2.5 +112 XX 2.5 +125 2.5 +125 2.5 +111 2.5 +120
24874 Total Rounds UNDER 2.5 -148 2.5 -148 2.5 -139 XX 2.5 -152 2.5 -152 2.5 -141 2.5 -163


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BOOSTERS

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Favorite Bets

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  • Lauren Murphy to win by finish +450
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  • Sam Alvey to win by KO/TKO/DQ +500
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  • Casey Kenny / Nathaniel Wood NOT go the distance +150
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  • Jacob Malkoun ML +200
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  • Khabib Nurmagomedov win in rounds 1-2 +325
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