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How To Bet UFC Fight Night 9/5: Odds and Predictions for UFC Vegas 9

by Moose Jester

Are you one of the lucky ones in a legal jurisdiction where you can place on the tonight's UFC Vegas 9? Well, congrats! Here are a few notes and predictions to help you make better bets. Be sure to read all the way to the end for my top UFC Vegas 9 bets. 

Note: If you live in and are able to wager in New Jersey, Indiana or Colorado, we recommend signing up to SugarHouse New JerseyBetRivers Indiana, or BetRivers Colorado, respectively, and use promo code 250MATCH to get up 100% on your first deposit up to $250.

What type of bets are there?

Moneyline

Probably the most popular type of bets because it’s the simplest. Pick which fighter will win.

Total Rounds

Total round wagers are just that -- the total number of rounds a fight will go and is mostly in half-points (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5). A half a round is considered to be the midpoint in the round (2 minutes 30 seconds). I have never seen a sportsbook use any other definition, but always make sure to read the house rules to make sure this is correct.

In the market below, under is the winner if the fight ends before 2:30 in the second round. If the fight continues past the 2:30 mark in the second round, then the over is the winner.

To Go The Distance

This type of wager is a Yes/No type prop where Yes is the winner if the fight finishes all rounds and goes to the judges (‘the distance’). If the fight does not, then No will be the winner.

Other bet types

While the three listed above are the most popular, they are not the only bet types, including Winning Method (e.g. fighter to win by submission), Winning Round (e.g. Fighter to win in Round 1), and many more. Go check them out!

Betting strategies

Tell a story

Just like we always say in DFS, make sure your bets tell a story. Don’t bet a fighter to win by decision as well as the fight won’t go to decision. The only time something like this makes sense is if both bets are large underdogs.

Don’t double down on the same outcome

Just like telling a story and just like we say in our annual Super Bowl Props Guide, if you’re making small wagers don’t double down on what is essentially the same outcome. 

An example of this would be betting over 4.5 rounds and betting the fight to go to a decision. Another example would be a fighter to win by decision and over 2.5 rounds. Pick the one you’re most confident in and stick with that.

Line shopping

I will continue to talk about line shopping until the day I die. Different books -- for many reasons -- have different betting lines for the same event. I looked at a few sportsbooks acorss the US and their odds are listed below. You can click either the logo or the individual odd to be taken to that sportsbook page.

 

Fight #
Time (ET)
NSS Fighters (OF Index)











NJ CO/IL/IN NJ CO/IN/NJ IA/IN/NJ NJ
9
9:50 PM
24101 Alistair Overeem (95) -159 -159 -173 -173 -170 -165
24102 Augusto Sakai (86) +130 +130 +140 +140 +135 +140
24103 Total Rounds OVER 4.5 +205 4.5 +205 4.5 +180 4.5 +180 2.5 -125 4.5 +150
24104 Total Rounds UNDER 4.5 -285 4.5 -285 4.5 -233 4.5 -233 2.5 -112 4.5 +150
8
9:25 PM
24105 Alonzo Menifield (60) -134 -134 -139 -139 -140 -130
24106 Ovince Saint Preux (53) +110 +110 +115 +115 +113 +110
24107 Total Rounds OVER 1.5 -134 1.5 -134 2.5 +140 2.5 +140 1.5 -141 1.5 -138
24108 Total Rounds UNDER 1.5 +110 1.5 +110 2.5 -176 2.5 -176 1.5 +111 1.5 -138
7
9:00 PM
24117 Michel Pereira (68) -112 -112 -125 -125 -120 -125
24118 Zelim Imadaev (53) -112 -112 +105 +105 -105 +105
24119 Total Rounds OVER 1.5 -167 1.5 -167 2.5 +105 2.5 +105 1.5 -162 1.5 -175
24120 Total Rounds UNDER 1.5 +125 1.5 +125 2.5 -134 2.5 -134 1.5 +126 1.5 -175
3
7:00 PM
24121 Bartosz Fabinski (136) -165 -165 -167 -167 -170 -165
24122 Andre Muniz (65) +132 +132 +140 +140 +135 +140
24123 Total Rounds OVER 2.5 -182 2.5 -182 2.5 -179 2.5 -179 2.5 -179 2.5 -188
24124 Total Rounds UNDER 2.5 +130 2.5 +130 2.5 +140 2.5 +140 2.5 +140 2.5 -188
6
8:35 PM
24129 Jalin Turner (70) +138 +138 +130 +130 +130 +130
24130 Thiago Moises (74) -175 -175 -159 -159 -165 -155
24131 Total Rounds OVER 2.5 +120 2.5 +120 2.5 +125 2.5 +125 2.5 +126 2.5 +110
24132 Total Rounds UNDER 2.5 -165 2.5 -165 2.5 -154 2.5 -154 2.5 -162 2.5 +110
1
6:10 PM
24133 Cole Smith (41) +185 +185 +200 +200 +185 +200
24134 Hunter Azure (86) -235 -235 -250 -250 -240 -240
24135 Total Rounds OVER 2.5 -240 2.5 -240 2.5 -264 2.5 -264 2.5 -251 2.5 -275
24136 Total Rounds UNDER 2.5 +174 2.5 +174 2.5 +200 2.5 +200 2.5 +190 2.5 -275
4
7:30 PM
24137 Montana De La Rosa (55) +145 +145 +150 +150 +146 +155
24138 Viviane Araujo (112) -182 -182 -182 -182 -185 -180
24139 Total Rounds OVER 2.5 -240 2.5 -240 2.5 -228 2.5 -228 2.5 -278 2.5 -250
24140 Total Rounds UNDER 2.5 +174 2.5 +174 2.5 +175 2.5 +175 2.5 +205 2.5 -250
2
6:35 PM
24145 Alexandr Romanov (137) -155 -155 -162 -162 -150 -150
24146 Marcos Rogerio De Lima (62) +124 +124 +135 +135 +121 +125
24147 Total Rounds OVER 1.5 +140 1.5 +140 2.5 +250 2.5 +250 1.5 +135 1.5 +120
24148 Total Rounds UNDER 1.5 -190 1.5 -190 2.5 -334 2.5 -334 1.5 -173 1.5 +120
5
8:10 PM
24153 Brian Kelleher (108) -225 -225 -228 -228 -230 -220
24154 Kevin Natividad (68) +175 +175 +185 +185 +180 +180
24155 Total Rounds OVER 2.5 -115 2.5 -115 2.5 -110 2.5 -110 2.5 -118 2.5 -110
24156 Total Rounds UNDER 2.5 -115 2.5 -115 2.5 -110 2.5 -110 2.5 -109 2.5 -110


Below are a list of booster bets from our partnered sportsbooks. If you're a new user, you really should take part in these, as they are great bankroll builders.
I know it is only a difference in a few cents, but over time the cents add up. You should be line shopping at all the sportsbooks you have for every wager you make.

BOOSTERS

PlaySugarhouse (New Jersey Only)

BetRivers Indiana

BetRivers Colorado

BetRivers Illinois

BetMGM

PointsBet

Favorite Bets

After going +3.91 units last week, we're up +5.61 units since posting our original article. Let's keep it going!

  • Andre Muniz to win by submission +315
    LIVE IN NEW JERSEY? BET THIS NOW AT SUGARHOUSE
  • Bartosz Fabinski to win by decision +130
    LIVE IN NEW JERSEY, COLORADO, OR INDIANA? BET THIS NOW AT BETMGM
  • Akexandr Romanov to win in round 1 +250
    LIVE IN NEW JERSEY? BET THIS NOW AT WILLIAM HILL
  • Jalin Turner to win by decision +500
    LIVE IN NEW JERSEY? BET THIS NOW AT WILLIAM HILL
  • Michel Pereira to win by KO/TKO/DQ +200
    LIVE IN NEW JERSEY? BET THIS NOW AT WILLIAM HILL
  • Ovince St. Preux win win LIVE AFTER ROUND 1 +130 or better

Note: If you are able to wager in New Jersey, Indiana or Colorado, we recommend signing up to SugarHouse New JerseyBetRivers Indiana, or BetRivers Colorado, respectively, and use promo code 250MATCH to get up 100% on your first deposit up to $250

Sports Betting Disclaimers
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