How To Bet UFC Fight Night 9/5: Odds and Predictions for UFC Vegas 9
by Moose Jester
Are you one of the lucky ones in a legal jurisdiction where you can place on the tonight's UFC Vegas 9? Well, congrats! Here are a few notes and predictions to help you make better bets. Be sure to read all the way to the end for my top UFC Vegas 9 bets.
Note: If you live in and are able to wager in New Jersey, Indiana or Colorado, we recommend signing up to SugarHouse New Jersey, BetRivers Indiana, or BetRivers Colorado, respectively, and use promo code 250MATCH to get up 100% on your first deposit up to $250.
What type of bets are there?
Moneyline
Probably the most popular type of bets because it’s the simplest. Pick which fighter will win.
Total Rounds
Total round wagers are just that -- the total number of rounds a fight will go and is mostly in half-points (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5). A half a round is considered to be the midpoint in the round (2 minutes 30 seconds). I have never seen a sportsbook use any other definition, but always make sure to read the house rules to make sure this is correct.
In the market below, under is the winner if the fight ends before 2:30 in the second round. If the fight continues past the 2:30 mark in the second round, then the over is the winner.
To Go The Distance
This type of wager is a Yes/No type prop where Yes is the winner if the fight finishes all rounds and goes to the judges (‘the distance’). If the fight does not, then No will be the winner.
Other bet types
While the three listed above are the most popular, they are not the only bet types, including Winning Method (e.g. fighter to win by submission), Winning Round (e.g. Fighter to win in Round 1), and many more. Go check them out!
Betting strategies
Tell a story
Just like we always say in DFS, make sure your bets tell a story. Don’t bet a fighter to win by decision as well as the fight won’t go to decision. The only time something like this makes sense is if both bets are large underdogs.
Don’t double down on the same outcome
Just like telling a story and just like we say in our annual Super Bowl Props Guide, if you’re making small wagers don’t double down on what is essentially the same outcome.
An example of this would be betting over 4.5 rounds and betting the fight to go to a decision. Another example would be a fighter to win by decision and over 2.5 rounds. Pick the one you’re most confident in and stick with that.
Line shopping
I will continue to talk about line shopping until the day I die. Different books -- for many reasons -- have different betting lines for the same event. I looked at a few sportsbooks acorss the US and their odds are listed below. You can click either the logo or the individual odd to be taken to that sportsbook page.
| Fight # Time (ET) |
NSS | Fighters (OF Index) |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ | CO/IL/IN | NJ | CO/IN/NJ | IA/IN/NJ | NJ | |||
| 9 9:50 PM |
24101 |  Alistair Overeem (95) |
-159 | -159 | -173 | -173 | -170 | -165 |
| 24102 | Augusto Sakai (86) |
+130 | +130 | +140 | +140 | +135 | +140 | |
| 24103 | Total Rounds OVER | 4.5 +205 | 4.5 +205 | 4.5 +180 | 4.5 +180 | 2.5 -125 | 4.5 +150 | |
| 24104 | Total Rounds UNDER | 4.5 -285 | 4.5 -285 | 4.5 -233 | 4.5 -233 | 2.5 -112 | 4.5 +150 | |
| 8 9:25 PM |
24105 | Alonzo Menifield (60) |
-134 | -134 | -139 | -139 | -140 | -130 |
| 24106 |  Ovince Saint Preux (53) |
+110 | +110 | +115 | +115 | +113 | +110 | |
| 24107 | Total Rounds OVER | 1.5 -134 | 1.5 -134 | 2.5 +140 | 2.5 +140 | 1.5 -141 | 1.5 -138 | |
| 24108 | Total Rounds UNDER | 1.5 +110 | 1.5 +110 | 2.5 -176 | 2.5 -176 | 1.5 +111 | 1.5 -138 | |
| 7 9:00 PM |
24117 |  Michel Pereira (68) |
-112 | -112 | -125 | -125 | -120 | -125 |
| 24118 |  Zelim Imadaev (53) |
-112 | -112 | +105 | +105 | -105 | +105 | |
| 24119 | Total Rounds OVER | 1.5 -167 | 1.5 -167 | 2.5 +105 | 2.5 +105 | 1.5 -162 | 1.5 -175 | |
| 24120 | Total Rounds UNDER | 1.5 +125 | 1.5 +125 | 2.5 -134 | 2.5 -134 | 1.5 +126 | 1.5 -175 | |
| 3 7:00 PM |
24121 | Bartosz Fabinski (136) |
-165 | -165 | -167 | -167 | -170 | -165 |
| 24122 | Andre Muniz (65) |
+132 | +132 | +140 | +140 | +135 | +140 | |
| 24123 | Total Rounds OVER | 2.5 -182 | 2.5 -182 | 2.5 -179 | 2.5 -179 | 2.5 -179 | 2.5 -188 | |
| 24124 | Total Rounds UNDER | 2.5 +130 | 2.5 +130 | 2.5 +140 | 2.5 +140 | 2.5 +140 | 2.5 -188 | |
| 6 8:35 PM |
24129 |  Jalin Turner (70) |
+138 | +138 | +130 | +130 | +130 | +130 |
| 24130 | Thiago Moises (74) |
-175 | -175 | -159 | -159 | -165 | -155 | |
| 24131 | Total Rounds OVER | 2.5 +120 | 2.5 +120 | 2.5 +125 | 2.5 +125 | 2.5 +126 | 2.5 +110 | |
| 24132 | Total Rounds UNDER | 2.5 -165 | 2.5 -165 | 2.5 -154 | 2.5 -154 | 2.5 -162 | 2.5 +110 | |
| 1 6:10 PM |
24133 | Cole Smith (41) |
+185 | +185 | +200 | +200 | +185 | +200 |
| 24134 |  Hunter Azure (86) |
-235 | -235 | -250 | -250 | -240 | -240 | |
| 24135 | Total Rounds OVER | 2.5 -240 | 2.5 -240 | 2.5 -264 | 2.5 -264 | 2.5 -251 | 2.5 -275 | |
| 24136 | Total Rounds UNDER | 2.5 +174 | 2.5 +174 | 2.5 +200 | 2.5 +200 | 2.5 +190 | 2.5 -275 | |
| 4 7:30 PM |
24137 |  Montana De La Rosa (55) |
+145 | +145 | +150 | +150 | +146 | +155 |
| 24138 |  Viviane Araujo (112) |
-182 | -182 | -182 | -182 | -185 | -180 | |
| 24139 | Total Rounds OVER | 2.5 -240 | 2.5 -240 | 2.5 -228 | 2.5 -228 | 2.5 -278 | 2.5 -250 | |
| 24140 | Total Rounds UNDER | 2.5 +174 | 2.5 +174 | 2.5 +175 | 2.5 +175 | 2.5 +205 | 2.5 -250 | |
| 2 6:35 PM |
24145 | Alexandr Romanov (137) |
-155 | -155 | -162 | -162 | -150 | -150 |
| 24146 | Marcos Rogerio De Lima (62) |
+124 | +124 | +135 | +135 | +121 | +125 | |
| 24147 | Total Rounds OVER | 1.5 +140 | 1.5 +140 | 2.5 +250 | 2.5 +250 | 1.5 +135 | 1.5 +120 | |
| 24148 | Total Rounds UNDER | 1.5 -190 | 1.5 -190 | 2.5 -334 | 2.5 -334 | 1.5 -173 | 1.5 +120 | |
| 5 8:10 PM |
24153 | Brian Kelleher (108) |
-225 | -225 | -228 | -228 | -230 | -220 |
| 24154 | Kevin Natividad (68) |
+175 | +175 | +185 | +185 | +180 | +180 | |
| 24155 | Total Rounds OVER | 2.5 -115 | 2.5 -115 | 2.5 -110 | 2.5 -110 | 2.5 -118 | 2.5 -110 | |
| 24156 | Total Rounds UNDER | 2.5 -115 | 2.5 -115 | 2.5 -110 | 2.5 -110 | 2.5 -109 | 2.5 -110 |
Below are a list of booster bets from our partnered sportsbooks. If you're a new user, you really should take part in these, as they are great bankroll builders.I know it is only a difference in a few cents, but over time the cents add up. You should be line shopping at all the sportsbooks you have for every wager you make.
BOOSTERS
PlaySugarhouse (New Jersey Only)
- Alistair Overeem to Win by Submission in Rounds 1 or 2 20/1
- All Main Card Fights to end by KO/TKO/DQ (UFC 9/5) 50/1
BetRivers Indiana
- Alistair Overeem to Win by Submission in Rounds 1 or 2 20/1 (Indiana only)
- All Main Card Fights to end by KO/TKO/DQ (UFC 9/5) 50/1 (Indiana only)
BetRivers Colorado
- Alistair Overeem to Win by Submission in Rounds 1 or 2 20/1 (Colorado only)
- All Main Card Fights to end by KO/TKO/DQ (UFC 9/5) 50/1 (Colorado only)
BetRivers Illinois
- Alistair Overeem to Win by Submission in Rounds 1 or 2 20/1 (Illinois only)
- All Main Card Fights to end by KO/TKO/DQ (UFC 9/5) 50/1 (Illinois only)
BetMGM
- None this week (New Jersey)
PointsBet
Favorite Bets
After going +3.91 units last week, we're up +5.61 units since posting our original article. Let's keep it going!
- Andre Muniz to win by submission +315
LIVE IN NEW JERSEY? BET THIS NOW AT SUGARHOUSE - Bartosz Fabinski to win by decision +130
LIVE IN NEW JERSEY, COLORADO, OR INDIANA? BET THIS NOW AT BETMGM - Akexandr Romanov to win in round 1 +250
LIVE IN NEW JERSEY? BET THIS NOW AT WILLIAM HILL - Jalin Turner to win by decision +500
LIVE IN NEW JERSEY? BET THIS NOW AT WILLIAM HILL - Michel Pereira to win by KO/TKO/DQ +200
LIVE IN NEW JERSEY? BET THIS NOW AT WILLIAM HILL - Ovince St. Preux win win LIVE AFTER ROUND 1 +130 or better
Note: If you are able to wager in New Jersey, Indiana or Colorado, we recommend signing up to SugarHouse New Jersey, BetRivers Indiana, or BetRivers Colorado, respectively, and use promo code 250MATCH to get up 100% on your first deposit up to $250
Sports Betting Disclaimers
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER, or visit 800Gambler.org.
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-9-WITH-IT. Playable only in Indiana. Must be 21+.
MUST BE 21+ • PLAY IN COLORADO ONLY • GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-522-4700
MUST BE 21+ • PLAY IN ILLINOIS ONLY • GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER