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KBO DFS Picks & Lineup Advice: June 14

The KBO DFS Plug will end on June 15th. Prize pools for KBO contests have fully evaporated. We will be turning our attention to the LPL/LCK League of Legends slates. The KBO Model will continue to update for each KBO slate, and we are available on social media if you have questions. Be sure to follow our baseball writers, Chris Rooney, Lucas Jensen and Tyler Crook if you need assistance!

The Daily Plug is our daily KBO DFS Picks & Strategy write-up that highlights the top plays from our Occupy Model. New to fantasy baseball, in general? Check out our Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy Guide - the same basic principles from MLB apply, here.

We’ll start by looking at betting odds and weather situations, then the Plug will provide actionable information for the main slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly which types of contests to play -- all depending on the type of player you are.

Consider the Daily Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!

Want analysis for every player for your KBO DFS picks in tonight's game? Check out the KBO Occupy Model.

Notable Betting Odds:

Biggest Favorites:

Biggest Moneyline Moves:
LGT, 23 cents move
KIA, 15 cents move

Highest Implied Run Totals:
NC Dinos: 6.96
Samsung Lions: 5.71
KIA Tigers: 5.39
LG Twins: 5.16
Kiwoom Heroes: 5.04
KT Wiz Suwon: 4.79

Team Total Movement:
Lotte Giants: +0.26 (REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT)
LG Twins: -0.26
Kiwoom Heroes: -0.17

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  • Will be posted in BLUE after lineups are released.

Weather Situations to Target:

We don’t pretend to be experts on the weather in South Korea - but the data providers we use do 🙂

Modest precipitation chances on this slate - not much in the way of PPD concern as far as we can tell. KTW@SAM and KIW@NCD both have +5% adjustments for hitters on this slate.

Make sure to check the Occupy Weather Model for adjustments before lock. Keep up to date with the latest news as it will be updated here on the Daily Plug & via Twitter by following @OccupyFantasy

Slate Notes: KBO DFS Lineup Advice, Contest Recommendations, Bankroll Allocation

  • Bankroll allocation: Use 1-2% of your bankroll, if you play at all. 
  • Low-risk lineup strategy: In low-risk contests, look to roster starting pitchers on favorites. Ideally, we’ll roster starting pitchers in low-risk who are favorites, have high K/IP upside, favorable weather, and favorable park factor adjustments. Every slate is different - each night, turn to pitchers with as many of these metrics working in their favor as the anchors of your low-risk lineups. Use the top batters in our Occupy Model where you can, and try to stack hitters on the same team who hit near each other in the lineup. Make sure you use the low-risk batters filter on the Model, and try to mini-stack (use 2 to 3 hitters at the top of the order for the top teams that night), particularly those on teams with high team totals.
  • Low-risk contest selection: Start with single entry 50/50s, H2H and double-ups (multipliers). As always, look for no badge users to target in the H2H lobby. If your bankroll tier is larger, mix in larger field multipliers.
  • High-risk lineup strategy: Fantasy baseball is all about event-based scoring. Home runs, stolen bases, strikeouts - these are king. In high-risk contests, focus on stacking offenses with the highest upside. On any given slate, batters have a much higher ceiling than pitchers.
    • TONIGHT: Stack hitters from SAM, NCD and KIW. The Lions have the 2nd highest implied team total (5.71 runs) in their matchup with KT Wiz Suwon. Their top OF Index ranking is due in large part to facing the worst SP in our Model on the slate. #OurDinos are back as a top stack against the Kiwoom Heroes - their slate high implied team total (6.96 runs) is a big reason why. Finally, we also like Kiwoom thanks to their slate high wOBA projection as a team, making for an NCD/KIW game stack tonight.
      NCD’s Sung bum Na ($6,100 DK, $17 FD) is the highest ranked hitter in the Occupy Model, so he is our favorite hitter to build around tonight.
    • For individual batters, look for those with high ISO (isolated slugging), which measures power, in our Model. Higher number = better, if you need a sense for scale. wOBA = weighted on-base average, this is a measure that indicates floor, as it shows how reliable a player is at getting on-base. 
  • For pitchers in high-risk, look at the options with the highest K/IP upside - especially if they are underdogs -  those are strong plays. 
    • TONIGHT: As always, make sure to check the model when you are checking starting lineups, about an hour before lock. We often see overnight line movement, unexpected starting lineups and other factors that can change the model’s opinion on certain players. Tonight, Casey Kelly (LG Starting P) is the highest ranked pitcher in our Model. Geon wook Lee (SK Starting P) has the highest K/IP upside, so he’s a strong high-risk play. For more, read below.
  • Low-risk vs. High-risk allocation: Unless you feel like you have a really good handle on Korean baseball… stick to high-risk only tonight. The exception would be if you find overlay in some of the large guaranteed prize pool multipliers before lock - if they happen, those are great contests to enter. We only have anticipated starting lineups in our Model - actual lineups will post 1-2 hours before lock. If you can't be awake/online before lock and real lineups post, limit your allocation.  
  • High-risk contest selection: Those of you who have been with us for a while know - we always prefer to start satellite ticket hunting in high-risk. On DraftKings, the future contests you can still earn tickets for? A future Fantasy Golf Millionaire - there is another one next week. There are also tickets available for the 7-11 MMA $25 251 Special - we have an MMA Model up and running for all MMA slates. The Occupy Fantasy Discord Chat will also be active if you are interested in chasing potential 6-17  $200K EPL is Back and  6-21 NAS $20 Big One tickets.
    On FanDuel, you can earn tickets to the NAS SUPER Intimidator on 6/21.

    This is a rough night to find “good” tournaments outside of the higher bankroll tiers. We will always recommend sticking to contest sizes you can max - single-entry, 3 entry max, 20 entry max, etc - when it makes sense to do so. Once again, this is a good night to get “back to the basics” of bankroll management - look to maximize your exposure to 100 player leagues/contests on FanDuel and DraftKings before turning to GPPs. Our strategies for this are detailed in our Ultimate Guide to Bankroll Management, written by single-game million dollar DFS winner, “courtjesters” on DraftKings - our own Brian Jester. Updated with new content for 2020!
    On DraftKings, for small and medium bankrolls, the $4.5K mini-MAX ($1, 150 max) is up your alley. Normally we don't advocate for playing in 150 max contests if you can't max the tournament - but strong KBO GPPs are drying up at lower stakes. Of course, for you large/big baller bankroll players, the $30K Check Swing ($12, 88 max) is the best DK contest of the night.
    On FanDuel, the $10K Sun KBO Squeeze is a 64 max, $5.55 entry fee tournament worth playing. It awards $2K to 1st. For you larger bankroll players, consider the $4.5K Sun KBO Monster - this $333 entry fee contest is a single entry contest with $2.5K to 1st.

Top Stacks 

Updates will be posted in BLUE.

While these are the top stacks by OF index in our Model, you should look for yourself for other ideas.

We use the following format: OF Index-.ISO-wOBA-Implied Team Total. You will see these ranks next to each listed team (1 = best, highest number = worst). We are using projected starting lineups at the time of publication of our KBO Plugs - check back before lock for any updates, and try and catch our pre-slate chats on Twitch every night (subscribers only). 

Samsung Lions - 1-2-4-2

Wouldn’t be the KBO Plug if we didn’t go out with one more write up of our favorite Lions - Tyler Saladino ($4,600 DK, $8 FD) and Sung Gyu Lee ($3,300 DK, $9 FD) lead the Model with 8.7 and 8.3 OF Indices respectively for the Lions. Each of our top 4 Lions hitters has an ISO of .214 or higher, so expect power to be a big part of how the Lions are able to realize their 5.71 run implied team total on this slate. Once again, FanDuel especially is daring you to roster these hitters with every single player being <$10 on the slate. Take advantage in high-risk contests.

NC Dinos - 2-1-2-1

Getting near impossible to stack the top Dinos on DraftKings with these salaries, but this is still the most well rounded offense to stack in the KBO. Sung bum Na ($6,100 DK, $17 FD) finishes the week as our top overall hitter, thanks to a slate high 9.9 OF Index for a hitter. Jin Sung Kang ($4,400 DK, $14 FD) and Eui ji Yang ($6,300 DK, $14 FD) are the next best options. You’ll need to get creative to jam these three into your lineups as a stack, but it could very well be worth the effort to figure it out. The Dinos slate high 6.96 run implied team total has risen bt +0.17 runs since lines opened.

Kiwoom Heroes - 3-3-1-5

The Heroes will look to repeat their performance from last evening, where they absolutely embarrassed #OurDinos in an 18-5 drubbing. Ha seong Kim ($5,900 DK, $15 FD) and ByungHo Park ($4,600 DK, $13 FD) lead the Heroes thanks to 8.5 and 8.2 OF Indices. Dong won Park ($4,700 DK, $10 FD) is a far cheaper C option than NCD’s Yang on DraftKings if you’re interested in game stacking and making the salary work, here. Each of the top 7 Heroes hitters in our Model has more than an elite .437 wOBA projection, so there’s plenty of production expected here.

Top Pitchers

Updates will be posted in BLUE.

Casey Kelly, LG
DraftKings: $8,900
FanDuel: $27
OF Index: 11.7

Geon wook Lee, SK
DraftKings: $6,100
FanDuel: $23
OF Index: 10.4

Adrian Sampson, LOT
DraftKings: $8,500
FanDuel: $22
OF Index: 9.4   

Casey Kelly projects to have a 57% chance to win this start, thanks to being a -157 moneyline favorite for the LG Twins. His 0.83 K/IP projection is modest, 4th highest on  the entire slate. His opponent, Adrian Sampson, might prove to be the better high risk option however, as he has seen a -15 point moneyline move in his favor so far in betting markets. Sampson is projected for a modest 0.74 K/IP on the other side of this game.

We love NCD and KIW hitters tonight, and part of the formula for being able to afford them? Rostering Geon wook Lee on DraftKings at his cheap price. His slate high 1.04 K/IP projection for the Wyverns makes him an extremely attractive option on a slate that doesn’t have much in the way of clear cut pitching options available.

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