MLB DFS Picks & Lineup Advice: June 25th
The Daily Plug is our daily MLB DFS Picks & Strategy write-up that highlights the top plays from our Occupy Model.
We’ll start by looking at betting odds and weather situations, then the Plug will provide actionable information for the main slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly which types of contests to play -- all depending on the type of player you are.
Consider the Daily Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!
Want analysis for every player for your MLB DFS picks in tonight's games? Check out the Occupy Model.
Notable Betting Odds:
Houston Astros -280 (Gerrit Cole)
Boston Red Sox -260 (David Price)
Cleveland Indians -245 (Shane Bieber)
Washington Nationals -235 (Max Scherzer)
San Diego Padres -181 (Logan Allen)
Milwaukee Brewers -176 (Zach Davies)
Biggest Moneyline Moves:
Kansas City Royals, 37 cents move
Miami Marlins, 32 cents move
Pittsburgh Pirates, 30 cents move
Chicago White Sox, 25 cents move
Los Angeles Dodgers, 24 cents move
Highest Implied Run Totals:
Boston Red Sox: 7.11
San Diego Padres: 6.68
Cleveland Indians: 6.63
Milwaukee Brewers: 6.61
Houston Astros: 6.51
Philadelphia Phillies: 6.21
Atlanta Braves: 6.00
Chicago Cubs: 6.00
Texas Rangers: 5.78
Los Angeles Angels: 5.20
Team Total Movement:
Arizona Diamondbacks: +0.70 (REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT)
Texas Rangers: +0.48
Milwaukee Brewers: +0.40 (REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT)
Cleveland Indians: +0.36
Washington Nationals: +0.26
Atlanta Braves: +0.25
Chicago Cubs: +0.25
Chicago White Sox: -0.38
Kansas City Royals: -0.36
Miami Marlins: -0.26
Weather Situations to Target:
There are heavy thunderstorms anticipated across Massachusetts, putting CWS@BOS at risk according to RotoGrinders’ Kevin Roth. Bats are still viable in high-risk, but be careful beyond that. This could be a late start, and if Fenway gets absolutely drenched they might just call it.
As a reminder, these are our top hitters by OF Index who are not a part of our top stacks below:
Nolan Arenado, COL
FanDuel: 3B, $4,300, 1.87%
DraftKings: 3B, $4,700, 2.41%
OF Index: 11.2
Shohei Ohtani, LAA
FanDuel: OF, $3,500, 11.51%
DraftKings: OF, $4,700, 5.64%
OF Index: 9.6
Justin Turner, LAD
FanDuel: 3B, $3,200, 5.40%
DraftKings: 3B, $3,900, 13.71%
OF Index: 9.4
Kris Bryant, CHC
FanDuel: 3B, $3,800, 12.17%
DraftKings: 3B/OF, $4,900, 5.45%
OF Index: 9.2
What do the badges mean?
Nolen Arenado always grades out well against lefties. Today his projected ISO is an insane .466 to go along with a .508 wOBA. The gaudy projections make the decision on Arenado tough because the Rockies will battle Madison Bumgarner on the road with an implied run total of just 3.21. For that reason the slugging first basemen is best reserved for high-risk contests.
Tyler Mahle struggles mightily against lefties and he will be seeing Shohei Ohtani for the first (and maybe last) time tonight. Lack of familiarity is a small concern but this thing called a scouting report will help with that and allow Shohei to capitalize on his .411 projected ISO and 5.24 team total. La Stella, Calhoun, and (always) Trout surround Ohtani in the lineup and make sense as mini-stacks.
Justin Turner is known to terrorize left-handed pitching and he gets another chance against Robbie Ray tonight. The Statcast data is impressive as Turner ranks 26th in exit velocity and 50th in distance recently. The Dodgers are our value stack of the night so Turner makes sense paired with the likes of Garlick and Hernandez.
The wind is blowing out in Wrigley again tonight so that means runs runs runs. Kris Bryant will spearhead the Chicago attack against Max Fried and his unfortunate 6.00 opposing team total. Bryant is projected right at .500 wOBA and gets a boost to his power numbers with the wind so feel free to full stack the Cubs in all contests types with guys like Baez, Contreras, and Almora in tow.
Christian Walker, ARI
FanDuel: 1B, $2,900, 0.97%
DraftKings: 1B, $4,200, 0.73%
OF Index: 8.4
Enrique Hernandez, LAD
FanDuel: 2B, $2,900, 10.91%
DraftKings: 2B/OF, $3,700, 8.87%
OF Index: 8.3
Kyle Garlick, LAD
FanDuel: OF, $2,400, 7.02%
DraftKings: OF, $2,200, 7.58%
OF Index: 8.1
Chris Taylor, LAD
FanDuel: SS, $2,600, 9.12%
DraftKings: SS/OF, $4,000
OF Index: 7.9
Top Stacks (Players ranked by OF Index):
While these are the top stacks by OF index in our model, you should look for yourself for other ideas.
We use the following format: OF Index-.ISO-wOBA-Implied Team Total. You will see these ranks next to each listed team.
New York Yankees - 1-1-1-1
If I have to write about the Yankees every main slate for the rest of the season, I just might have to ask you all for regular wellness checks. The Yankees have a 75.38 OF Index in the Stacks Dashboard, so this is almost identical to the Brewers situation from a couple weeks ago. Every hitter has a .238 ISO or higher, and a .398 wOBA or higher. Stanton and Sanchez lead with 12.6 and 10.1 OF Index scores respectively in their matchup with Toronto’s Clayton Richard.
San Diego Padres - 2-2-3-3
The Padres visit Camden Yards, marking the occasion of Manny Machado’s return to his old stomping grounds. #NarrativeStreet would be an appropriate play here, given that his ownership is projected to be <2% on DK, and his Statcast performance is elite over the last two weeks (32nd EV, 36th DST). Renfroe edges him out as the top hitter for this stack, thanks to his 12.4 OF Index. The Padres have the second highest implied team total with 6.68 runs.
Texas Rangers - 3-3-6-10
All Star vote finalist Joey Gallo returns to the lineup tonight after missing several weeks with an oblique strain. His 10.6 OF Index leads the Rangers as they face the Tigers at Comerica Park in Detroit. The Rangers 5.78 run implied team total has risen by +0.48 runs since lines opened.
Philadelphia Phillies - 4-5-4-7
The Phillies implied team total of 6.25 runs has risen by a modest +0.05 since lines opened, but they’re still firmly amongst the best options with slate-worst Walker Lockett toeing the rubber for the Mets tonight. Harper leads with an 11.2 OF Index, thanks to his .384 ISO and .528 wOBA expectations.
Boston Red Sox - 5-4-2-2
Should the rain hold off, Boston is in a great spot tonight against Carson Fulmer. Martinez’s 9.3 OF Index once again cements his status as the top option, and he should lead the way for Boston as they hope to meet their 7.17 run implied team total. Every hitter listed here has a .187 ISO or higher, while also having <5% projected ownership on DraftKings.
Max Scherzer, WSH
FanDuel: $12,200, 23.64%
DraftKings: $12,400, 46.72%
OF Index: 19.1
Jack Flaherty, STL
FanDuel: $7,900, 10.34%
DraftKings: $7,900, 26.01%
OF Index: 17.7
What do the badges mean?
Max Scherzer will visit pitcher-friendly Marlins park tonight with thoughts of putting together a special performance. Vegas likes his chances as Miami is currently listed at 2.18 implied and +215 underdogs while Scherzer has a 1.48 K/IP projection. There are multiple solid options tonight but Mad Max sits atop the list, especially in low-risk contests. Due to the sky high price tag Scherzer carries, punts will be needed. Kyle Garlick and Jeff Mathis profile well on DraftKings along with a plethora of guys on FanDuel.
Our undoubted value pitcher is Jack Flaherty of the Cardinals. We have been riding the Flaherty wave for over a month as he continues to be underpriced still just under $8000. Occupy Fantasy members will have an edge on this play because the 3.71 opposing team total doesn’t bring a ton of attention to him, but our insane 1.66 K/IP projection does. The Statcast data is slightly concerning so we may be looking more at the 20-25 DK points than a dominant 30-35, but either way Flaherty is a top play that deserves strong consideration across the board.
The best of the rest is led by David Price of the Red Sox. Price profiles as a low-risk pivot off Flaherty on FanDuel due to the 3.08 opposing team total and -255 moneyline. The 1.16 K/IP projection is trumped by Flaherty but still rock solid, so the two can easily be paired together on two-pitcher sites. Next it makes sense to look at Jesse Chavez against Detroit, but he figures to be on a pitch count around 70. That doesn’t eliminate Chavez from consideration but does firmly insert Nestor Cortes Jr. on DraftKings paired with Scherzer. Cortes Jr. is expected to pitch in long relief and brings rare strikeout upside at just $4000.
Lot of high K upside SPs are options on this slate. Pay attention to the ownership percentages, because it's key to focus on the overlooked arms to get true upside in high-risk here.
Look for the better high risk and low risk building opportunities in the Occupy Model. By paying attention to the team total moves and line movements, we can really target the lineups that have the most optimism with bettors for DFS contests.
2x, 50/50, H2H, 3x, Triple Ups, 3-Mans, 5x, 10x, Leagues, GPPs, Satellites
For low-risk, Scherzer, Cole and Flaherty stand out as the clear top SPs. Our top stud and value hitters as well as the NYY/SD stacks above fit for these types of builds today.
For high-risk, look for the high ISO teams in the Stacks Dashboard like LAA/SF/CIN in addition to the top plays and stacks. Richards and Bassitt appear to be the highest K/IP upside underdog SPs on the slate. Snell and Fried are slight favorites projected for low ownership with upside.
Beginner & Smaller Bankrolls:
Consider the 118-player $1 contests on DraftKings (3-max) and the 237-player $1 contests on DK (7-max). As well as the $0.25 versions above. On FanDuel, the single entry “Bunt” GPP contests are the best ones for you to consider.
FanDuel is running a promotion that is a Single-Entry GPP series for the next few weeks, which should take us right up to NFL Preseason.
Your top 4 scores in the weekly series contest count towards an overall leaderboard, and if you finish 1st, you’ll win a seat to the final contest on 8/6 for $10,000! This week, the $3 Web Gem contest is the single entry GPP that counts for this series.
For satellites on DraftKings, we have the 7/18 PGA Millionaire in the lobby available now for the British Open, likely our last Milly Maker before NFL comes back.
There is also the 6/28 $1M June Jamboree, as well as satellites for tickets into the $4M FBWC $11 Qualifier and $44 Qualifier contests. The FBWC has a $500,000 top prize and is a live final in Chicago, IL.
FanDuel is still running satellites for the 7/16 Deuces Wild, the 7/23 ENORMOUS Monster, the 7/30 Ridiculous Rally, and the 8/6 Supreme Squeeze contests.
There are also qualifiers for the WFBC that run up through August 9th, a contest with a $500,000 prize to 1st place you can read more about here. The WFBC is a live final in San Diego, CA.
The DraftKings FBWC and FanDuel WFBC qualifiers (that’s confusing) are each best reserved for the highest of risk builds, as the qualifiers are amongst the hardest to win (and most expensive to play), but we’d be fools not to point them out. We still recommend avoiding these if you’re just trying to grow your bankroll.
Beat the Streak
Beat the Streak (BTS) is a free app that allows you to build a streak by correctly choosing one or two players a day to get a hit. Be the first to 57 straight picks and win $5.6 million, while collecting free prizes for milestones along the way (like free merchandise, tickets, & MLB.tv).
Throughout the season, we will give out our favorite picks for each day, in hopes someone can win that $5.6 million! Use our Occupy Model, & filter wOBA (highest to lowest) to see some of our top plays on BTS for yourself.
Today we are looking at Hunter Renfroe, Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton to continue our streaks.