MLB DFS Picks & Lineup Advice: August 12th
The Daily Plug is our daily MLB DFS Picks & Strategy write-up that highlights the top plays from our Occupy Model.
We’ll start by looking at betting odds and weather situations, then the Plug will provide actionable information for the main slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly which types of contests to play -- all depending on the type of player you are. Note: Plug not usually fully updated until 5:00pm EST on weeknights.
Consider the Daily Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!
Notable Betting Odds:
Houston Astros -215 (Zack Greinke)
New York Yankees -205 (Masahiro Tanaka)
Philadelphia Phillies -195 (Zach Eflin)
Tampa Bay Rays -167 (Blake Snell)
Biggest Moneyline Moves:
Philadelphia Phillies, -18 cents move
Oakland Athletics, -19 cents move
Highest Implied Run Totals:
PHI Phillies: 6.37
NY Yankees: 6.16
HOU Astros: 5.91
TB Rays: 5.43
LA Dodgers: 5.33
Team Total Movement:
PHI Phillies: +0.83
SD Padres: +0.38 (REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT)
OAK Athletics: +0.34
TB Rays: +0.33
CHI White Sox: +0.25
Weather Situations to Target:
It looks a little risky for pitchers with BAL@PHI with rain in the area, so keep an eye on it. No Coors Field on the main slate, so a +13% adjustment for hitters at Globe Life Field for SEA@TEX leads our Model in terms of positive hitter adjustment tonight.
As a reminder, these are our top hitters by OF Index who are not a part of our top stacks below:
Joey Gallo, TEX
FanDuel: OF, $3,800,
DraftKings: OF, $4,700
OF Index: 9.1
Nelson Cruz, MIN
FanDuel: OF, $3,800,
DraftKings: OF, $5,400
OF Index: 8.9
Max Muncy, LAD
FanDuel: C/1B, $3,600,
DraftKings: 1B/2B, $5,200
OF Index: 8.0
Seattle starter Taijuan Walker has shown flashes of brilliance through three 2020 starts with one superb statline to show for it. You guys know the deal with the always dangerous Joey Gallo, and nothing changes tonight with a 5.02 implied team total that has risen 0.14. 114th in exit velocity and 34th in distance is an impressive combination that proves the home run threat is never far away for Gallo. Similar to the other day, Gallo actually appears in top hitters due to his elite wOBA projection of .426. There are a plethora of outfielders we like again tonight with 10 of the first 11 in the Occupy Model playing the position, so personal preference will come into play here.
Next up on the outfield carousel is Nelson Cruz, who absolutely smashes left-handed pitchers like tonight’s starter for Milwaukee in Eric Lauer. It’s worth mentioning that Lauer actually has reverse splits, but nonetheless Cruz should have no issues. His .351 ISO projection matched with a .440 wOBA is a combination bested by only Juan Soto tonight. The 4.98 implied team total that has risen 0.21 does nothing to scare us off Cruz, so all systems go for the powerful veteran in Milwaukee.
We leave you with Max Muncy of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Muncy has been mired in a lengthy cold streak that has unfortunately done nothing to drop his DraftKings price, but is showing signs of life with a hit in three straight. We want a piece of the Dodgers at 5.36 implied and Muncy is the best chance to do that unless maybe Corey Seager returns to the lineup tonight. The cold streak and relatively low wOBA projection limits Muncy to GPP but his .311 ISO projection is what we want, at 2B especially.
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All cited splits and statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.com Splits Leaderboard tool or splits on a player’s profile page.