MLB DFS Picks & Lineup Advice: July 31st
The Daily Plug is our daily MLB DFS Picks & Strategy write-up that highlights the top plays from our Occupy Model.
We’ll start by looking at betting odds and weather situations, then the Plug will provide actionable information for the main slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly which types of contests to play -- all depending on the type of player you are. Note: Plug not usually fully updated until 3:00pm EST on weeknights.
Consider the Daily Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!
Want analysis for every player for your MLB DFS picks in tonight's games? Check out the Occupy Model.
We will be ending the 2019 MLB Daily Plug on July 31st. Starting on August 1st, the entire Occupy Fantasy team will be focused on NFL Preseason content.
Our MLB writers will still be posting MLB content on Twitter, so make sure you give them a follow!
Tyler Crook: @TylerC_2
Chris Rooney: @cdr02989
We've found that the edge in MLB DFS tends to drop off dramatically in August, while our edge based on researching NFL preseason is massive - this is why we'll be shifting resources into those contests TOMORROW! We hope you'll join us for some preseason NFL DFS. Now, on to the MLB slate:
Notable Betting Odds:
Los Angeles Angels -186 (Jose Suarez)
Minnesota Twins -175 (Jose Berrios)
New York Mets -160 (Jacob deGrom)
Biggest Moneyline Moves:
Oakland Athletics, 17 cents move
Highest Implied Run Totals:
Los Angeles Angels: 6.42
Boston Red Sox: 6.20
Philadelphia Phillies: 5.50
Houston Astros: 5.25
Kansas City Royals: 5.19
Team Total Movement:
Oakland Athletics: -0.57
Houston Astros: -0.32
Betting odds source: 5Dimes
Weather Situations to Target:
SF@PHI looks real dicey tonight according to Kevin Roth at RotoGrinders. We also have rain for TB@BOS to work around.
SEA@TEX has a +13% bump for hitters, while MIL@OAK has a -5%.
As a reminder, these are our top hitters by OF Index who are not a part of our top stacks below:
Bryce Harper, PHI
FanDuel: OF, $4,200, 11.35%
DraftKings: OF, $4,300, 21.72%
OF Index: 10.3
Danny Santana, TEX
FanDuel: C/1B, $3,600, 9.86%
DraftKings: 2B/OF, $5,300, 12.33%
OF Index: 7.9
Ji-Man Choi, TB
FanDuel: C/1B, $2,600, 13.76%
DraftKings: 1B, $4,000, 19.70%
OF Index: 7.7
Michael Conforto, NYM
FanDuel: OF, $3,600, 7.59%
DraftKings: OF, $4,000, 15.73%
OF Index: 7.7
What do the badges mean? Be a Badge Hunter!
Bryce Harper is in a solid under-the-radar play tonight as their 5.50 implied team total ranks third on the slate. Harper has a solid chance to square up Jeff Samardzija, and if he does you can expect his .394 projected ISO to go to work. Samardzija is in solid form as of late, so you probably shouldn’t go full on stack, but Harper and a surrounding bat or two should return dividends.
Like Samardzija, Wade LeBlanc has also been decent lately, but he doesn’t scare us. Texas may break the slate at 6.11 implied and Danny Santana leads the way with impeccable Statcast data. We are going to focus on top stacks more heavily than usual tonight, but Santana is one that should find his way into lineups at an oftentimes hard to fill second-base spot.
Rick Porcello, also known as Ricky Torchlights, is a shell of his former self. The Rays intend to prove that tonight in an important game that could clinch the series over Boston. The projections are modest, but Ji-Man Choi is attackable on FanDuel in particular at just $2600. His teammates Meadows, D’Arnaud, and Kiermier are viable options to join.
We round out the top hitters section with a high-risk option. Michael Conforto ranks inside the top 100 in recent distance and exit velocity with a projected wOBA over .400 and has the best chance to do damage against upper-tier pitcher Lucas Giolito. Surprisingly, Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil grade out favorably as well and could be an extremely sneaky stack.
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