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MLB DFS Picks & Lineup Advice: May 23rd

The Daily Plug is our daily MLB DFS Picks & Strategy write-up that highlights the top plays from our Occupy Model.

We’ll start by looking at betting odds and weather situations, then the Plug will provide actionable information for the main slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly which types of contests to play -- all depending on the type of player you are.

Consider the Daily Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!

Want analysis for every player for your MLB DFS picks in tonight's games? Check out the Occupy Model.

Notable Betting Odds:

Biggest Favorites:
New York Yankees -220 (Masahiro Tanaka)

Biggest Moneyline Moves:
New York Mets, 27 cents move
Baltimore Orioles, 15 cents move

Highest Implied Run Totals:
New York Yankees: 6.40
Detroit Tigers: 5.31
Chicago Cubs: 5.07
Pittsburgh Pirates: 5.01

Team Total Movement:
Pittsburgh Pirates: +0.62
New York Yankees: +0.50
Detroit Tigers: +0.44
Colorado Rockies: +0.38
Washington Nationals: +0.37
New York Mets: -0.37

Betting odds source: 5Dimes

Weather Situations to Target:

We are expecting every game to go off without a hitch, including fields actually draining water (smh, MIN/LAA). There is rain in the area of the WAS@NYM game this morning, but it should clear out by gametime according to RotoGrinders’ Kevin Roth.

Make sure to check the Occupy Weather Model for adjustments before lock. Keep up to date with the latest news as it will be updated here on the Daily Plug & via Twitter by following @OccupyFantasy.     

Top Batters:

As a reminder, these are our top hitters by OF Index who are not a part of our top stacks below:

Mookie Betts, BOS
FanDuel: OF, $4,400
DraftKings: OF, $5,100
OF Index: 8.8
Badges: ⭐🍰💪

Michael Chavis, BOS
FanDuel: 2B, $3,800
DraftKings: 2B/3B, $5,400
OF Index: 8.8
Badges: ⭐🍰📈💪

Andrew McCutchen, PHI
FanDuel: OF, $3,500
DraftKings: OF, $4,200
OF Index: 7.4

Aaron Hicks, NYY
FanDuel: OF, $3,700
DraftKings: OF, $4,500
OF Index: 7.4
Badges: 💪

What do the badges mean?

Clayton Richard will make his season debut as either a long reliever or starter today, and Mookie Betts lines up well. He too ranks near the top in the bigs in EV and DST recently and should take advantage of a depleted Toronto pitching staff that threw 13 innings last night. When you add that Betts is expected to be in the prime 2 hole on the road, we expect him to get 5 ABs and be one of the top scorers of the day with a slate high .469 wOBA projection.  

The Ice Horse Michael Chavis provided the spark manager Alex Cora was looking for when placing him in the leadoff spot on Sunday, and that could happen again today against another lefty. Even if he doesn’t, anywhere top 4 in the order is prime and will make Chavis a worthwhile mini-stack with Betts. Steve Pearce is a cheap option to keep an eye on while help rounding out Boston bats who we expect to have a high team total.

Andrew McCutchen is an interesting island play batting leadoff on the road against Jon Lester. His stolen base projection is a modest .21, but at his relatively cheap price tag his .406 wOBA makes him worthy of consideration regardless. Jean Segura makes for an interesting mini-stack as both carry decent chances for a stolen base against one of MLB’s worst at stopping baserunners.

We had written up Gary Sanchez, but he’s not playing today so he probably won’t be worth what they’re asking us to pay for him. Instead, his teammate Aaron Hicks will fill the void and be looked upon to carry the offensive load. With a team total around 6..00, Hicks and Luke Voit make for a strong mini-stack as they rank very closely in the Occupy Model and 7.4 and 7.3 OF Index.

Value Batters

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