MLB DFS Picks & Lineup Advice: June 15th
The Daily Plug is our daily MLB DFS Picks & Strategy write-up that highlights the top plays from our Occupy Model.
We’ll start by looking at betting odds and weather situations, then the Plug will provide actionable information for the main slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly which types of contests to play -- all depending on the type of player you are.
Consider the Daily Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!
Want analysis for every player for your MLB DFS picks in tonight's games? Check out the Occupy Model.
Notable Betting Odds:
Minnesota Twins -250 (Jake Odorizzi)
Oakland Athletics -210 (Frankie Montas)
Los Angeles Dodgers -182 (Walker Buehler)
Colorado Rockies -171 (German Marquez)
New York Yankees -164 (Chad Green)
Biggest Moneyline Moves:
Oakland Athletics, 25 cents move
Chicago White Sox, 19 cents move
Los Angeles Dodgers, 18 cents move
Highest Implied Run Totals:
Colorado Rockies: 6.84
Minnesota Twins: 6.32
Oakland Athletics: 5.96
New York Yankees: 5.81
Los Angeles Dodgers: 5.10
Philadelphia Phillies: 4.54
Cincinnati Reds: 4.54
Team Total Movement:
New York Yankees: +0.29
Texas Rangers: -0.37
Chicago White Sox: -0.29
Minnesota Twins: -0.27
Betting odds source: 5Dimes
Weather Situations to Target:
There are a handful of landmines on this slate according to RotoGrinders’ Kevin Roth. The most dire appear to be KC@MIN and TEX@CIN, we recommend fading both in low-risk contests entirely, and looking at bats only in high-risk closer to lock if they play.
In our Model, we like the SD@COL game, per usual, as there is a +17% bump to hitters at Coors Field (with a 19% chance of rain, though). 56% chance of rain for NYY@CWS as well, but we think it plays.
As a reminder, these are our top hitters by OF Index who are not a part of our top stacks below:
Khris Davis, OAK
FanDuel: OF, $3,700, 15.78%
DraftKings: OF, $4,000, 27.01%
OF Index: 7.0
Mark Canha, OAK
FanDuel: 1B, $2,800, 14.35%
DraftKings: 1B/OF, $4,200, 11.59%
OF Index: 6.7
Pete Alonso, NYM
FanDuel: 1B, $4,000, 5.74%
DraftKings: 1B, $5,000, 3.54%
OF Index: 6.6
Freddie Freeman, ATL
FanDuel: 1B, $4,400, 5.03%
DraftKings: 1B, $5,200, 3.10%
OF Index: 6.5
What do the badges mean?
As a disclaimer, we have four top stacks with hitters that stand out on each of those teams. There’s no real need to divert from those four teams, but we do have a few other hitters worth looking at.
Our first two hitters are at value prices and benefit from facing the combination of Gerson Bautista and Wade LeBlanc. The Oakland A’s have an implied run total of 6.20 and will be led by lefty mashers Khris Davis and Mark Canha. Both guys are hitting the ball well and have projected ISOs of .304 and .275. This mini-stack of the expected 2nd and 4th hitters makes a ton of sense to save money for top stacks while getting part of a huge team total.
We close out top hitters with two first basemen. The decision to be made is between NL East sluggers Pete Alonso and Freddie Freeman. Both are in excellent form according to Statcast data while hitting in prime spots of the order. Freeman struggles in the ISO department but sneaks just ahead of Alonso in wOBA. Alonso has the benefit of facing a considerably worse pitcher, but either one is a solid high-risk leverage play.
Want to read the rest?
The full MLB Daily Plug is available for members only. Get our top plays to give you actionable MLB daily fantasy advice.
Six reasons why you should become a member of Occupy Fantasy.
Members get access to ALL SPORTS, so SIGN UP NOW.