MLB DFS Picks & Lineup Advice: July 31st
Reminder: the 2023 MLB Daily Plug ended on July 31st. The MLB Model will still update every day through the end of the World Series.
The Daily Plug is our daily MLB DFS Picks & Strategy write-up that highlights the top plays from our Occupy Model.
We’ll start by looking at betting odds and weather situations, then the Plug will provide actionable information for the main slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly which types of contests to play -- all depending on the type of player you are. Note: Plug only written for main slates with 5+ games; not usually fully updated until 6:00pm EST for evening slates.
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Consider the Daily Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!
Midday updates are posted in BLUE.
As always, these are the top picks from our Occupy Model for MLB. All premium subscribers have access to the full model. Need to upgrade from a standard to a premium subscription? Let us know and we’ll take care of you!
On to the slate:
Notable Betting Odds:
Biggest Favorites:
ATL -225 (Charlie Morton)
MIL -210 (Corbin Burnes)
SD -200 (Seth Lugo)
Biggest Moneyline Moves:
LAA, -25 cents move
TB, -34 cents move
Highest Implied Team Run Totals:
SD: 7.39
ATL: 6.64
HOU: 5.51
MIL: 5.53
Team Total Movement:
TB: +0.77
LAA: +0.25
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SEA: -0.33
MIL: -0.33
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Weather Situations to Target:
There are +14% adjustments for hitters in LAA@ATL and a +13% adjustment to hitters in SD@COL, as well. We also need to monitor the rain for SD@COL.
Make sure to check the Occupy Weather Model for adjustments before lock. Keep up to date with the latest news as it will be updated here on the Daily Plug & via Twitter by following @OccupyFantasy.
Top Batters
As a reminder, these are our top MLB DFS picks by OF Index who are not a part of our top stacks below:
Shohei Ohtani, LAA
FanDuel: OF, $4,600, 4.67%
DraftKings: 1B/OF, $6,500, 3.95%
OF Index: 10.5
Badges: ⭐📈☁️🎲💪💤
Gunnar Henderson, BAL
FanDuel: 3B/SS, $3,400, 8.07%
DraftKings: 3B/SS, $4,900, 5.32%
OF Index: 8.3
Badges: 📈💪💤
Aaron Judge, NYY
FanDuel: OF, $4,200, 5.62%
DraftKings: OF, $6,200, 5.54%
OF Index: 8.3
Badges: ⭐📈💪💤
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Sports Betting disclaimers
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All cited splits and statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.com Splits Leaderboard tool or splits on a player’s profile page.