NBA DFS Lineups Advice: May 14
The Daily Plug is our daily NBA DFS lineups advice write-up that highlights the top overall plays for the slate. The Plug then provides actionable information for the main slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly which types of contests to play -- all depending on the type of player you are. Consider the Plug an in-depth roadmap for the main slate. Let’s get to it! - @gstroms99 and @tboyle24_DFS
Note that the Plug is only written for slates with 6+ games and is posted at least 2 hours before lock on game days. Want analysis for every player in tonight's games for your NBA DFS lineups? Check out the Occupy Model.
***NOTE: MAY 14 IS THE FINAL DAY OF THE 2021 NBA DFS DAILY PLUG! The Occupy Model will still be live for every slate.***
We know value is important in NBA DFS, so we have three columns in our Occupy Model -- DK Value, FD Value, and Y! Value -- to show how much value that player is on each site, as well as a dedicated injury report page. More nuanced advice for your NBA DFS lineups -- check it out:
Join our Discord channel to chat with staff and other members about your NBA DFS lineups.
Betting Odds & Line Movements:
Highest Scoring Games:
NO @ GS (-2), 228 o/u
CLE @ WAS (-8.5), 227 o/u
SAC @ MEM (-5.5), 226.5 o/u
WSH: Bradley Beal (OUT)
HOU: DaQuan Jeffries, Kevin Porter Jr., Christian Wood, Danuel House, Avery Bradley, D.J. Wilson (OUT)
UTA: Donovan Mitchell (OUT), Mike Conley (Probable)
CLE: Isaiah Hartenstein (OUT), Darius Garland, Cedi Osman (Questionable)
DET: Wayne Ellington, Rodney McGruder, Cory Joseph, Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee, Isaiah Stewart, Frank Jackson (OUT), Hamidou Diallo (Questionable)
LAC: Paul George, Kawhi Leonard (OUT), Serge Ibaka (Questionable), Patrick Beverly, Terrance Mann, Reggie Jackson (OUT)
DEN: P.J. Dozier (OUT), Will Barton, Monte Morris (Questionable)
ORL: Mo Bamba (Questionable)
PHI: Dwight Howard (Doubtful), Matisse Thybulle (Questionable)
OKC: Luguentz Dort (OUT), Ty Jerome (Questionable)
TOR: Paul Watson, Rodney Hood (OUT), Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, O.G. Anunoby, Pascal Siakam (Doubtful), Yuta Watanabe (Questionable)
SAC: De’Aaron Fox, Harrison Barnes, Marvin Bagley (Doubtful), Richaun Holmes (Questionable)
MEM: Grayson Allen (OUT), Kyle Anderson, Brandon Clarke, Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson, Jonas Valanciunas (OUT)
NOP: Zion Williamson, Lonzo Ball (OUT), Wes Iwundu, Brandon Ingram, Steven Adams (Questionable)
GSW: Kelly Oubre, Damion Lee (OUT), Mychal Mulder (Questionable), Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, Stephen Curry (OUT)
NEW: There will be a new, condensed format for the NBA Daily Plug for the second half of the 2021 season. Each top play will be identified using the various badges below to provide context.
Boost from Teammate(s) Absence
Top Point Guards
Russell Westbrook ($12800 DK, $12500 FD)
Luka Doncic ($10800 DK, $10100 FD)
Malachi Flynn ($6000 DK, $5600 FD)
Killian Hayes ($5800 DK, $5200 FD)
Ja Morant ($8400 DK, $7600 FD)
Jalen Harris ($4100 DK, $4300 FD)
Cole Anthony (FD ONLY) ($6800 DK, $4800 FD)
Top Shooting Guards
Collin Sexton ($8300 DK, $7800 FD)
Gary Trent (IF STARTING, FD ONLY) ($6300 DK, $4900 FD)
Khyri Thomas ($5800 DK, $5800 FD)
Josh Jackson ($6000 DK, $4400 FD)
Eric Bledsoe ($6500 DK, $5600 FD)
Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($6400 DK, $6200 FD)
DeAndre’ Bembry ($3800 DK, $3900 FD)
Top Small Forwards
Saddiq Bey ($6800 DK, $5900 FD)
Maurice Harkless ($4700 DK, $5100 FD)
Naji Marshall ($5200 DK, $4900 FD)
Anthony Lamb ($3700 DK, $3900 FD)
Top Power Forwards
KJ Martin ($7000 DK, $7500 FD)
Freddie Gillespie ($3600 DK, $3700 FD)
Aaron Gordon (DK PREFERRED) ($5400 DK, $3900 FD)
Tyler Cook ($3300 DK, $3500 FD)
Joel Embiid ($10400 DK, $9600 FD)
Moses Brown ($4800 DK, $5200 FD)
Chimezie Metu ($4300 DK, $4200 FD)
Jahil Okafor ($3200 DK, $3600 FD)
Updates posted in BLUE after Plug is published.
DraftKings Core: Chimezie Metu, Russell Westbrook, Xavier Tillman, Tyus Jones, Luke Kennard, Jordan Poole
FanDuel Core: Chimezie Metu,
Aaron Gordon, Killian Hayes, Russell Westbrook, Xavier Tillman, Marcus Morris, De'Anthony Melton
Tonight we see that the Clippers have listed PG13 and Leonard as uncertain. Going up against the tanking Houston Rockets, it is very likely that we see one or both of them out. If this is the case, Batum and possibly one of the bench guards (Jackson or Rondo) should step into the starting lineup. Our main targets here would be Marcus Morris and Batum as both are underpriced for the minutes they would see against a weak defense.
The Clips decided to rest three of their rotation guards along with PG13 and Leonard. It is likely that we see Kennard and Rondo as the two starting guards, both of which would become low risk options. Morris would jump up to a core option and Batum would be a bit higher risk.
It is really hard to narrow down the Warriors situation, as Green/Curry/Wiggins have all been listed as questionable. The Warriors need to win the next couple games to lock into the 7/8 matchup so we expect them to play, however who knows what Kerr decides to do. Here is the breakdown of which players to use in your lineups:
Curry OUT: Jordan Poole/Nico Mannion
Wiggins OUT: Juan Toscano-Anderson
Green OUT: Eric Paschall
This situation could lead to the most value on the slate, so be sure to check back here and/or Twitter/Discord for updates.
ALL THREE OUT
With Memphis resting half of their team, the other half all become value options. You cannot really go wrong in high risk with any of the available players, but here are our favorites for low risk (in order):
Xavier Tillman, De'Anthony Melton, Tyus Jones, Desmond Bane, Justise Winslow (high risk only)
Bankroll Allocation, Contest Selection, and Lineup Construction:
For the last Daily Plug of the season, we can now officially move onto the ultimate high-risk portion of the NBA season after last night. Teams with nothing to play for will start resting players without announcing and basically throw out the young guys. This makes it very hard to feel confident in any lineup with stars and high rotation players on teams that have solidified a specific seed in the playoffs or a lottery spot. Low-risk is basically out the window here, which means all lineup construction methods will be high-risk for here on out. Play a minimal portion of your bankroll and allocate just 20-30% of that towards low-risk contests such as double-up’s, 50-50’s, and head to head’s.
To start the day, your lineups should be built using a mid-priced approach since many of the elite options dealing with questionable or OUT tags. Use the mid-priced options in the Daily Plug to build the start of your lineups and only use elite options that are healthy and in the Daily Plug. This will most likely all go out the window throughout the day as we get more words on injuries and resting situations. Get ready for chaos, because if you are playing NBA tonight, it is what you are going to get.
For high-risk contests, reminder that you should have between 20 to 27 percent average ownership per player. For clarity, this doesn't mean that every player is between 20 and 27 percent ownership. It just means that the average ownership of your lineup is 20-27 percent. You can use the Occupy Model's projected ownership to help you accomplish this goal.
Also, continue to utilize the single-game model for all contest types. It has been extremely successful and for those of you who have not tried it yet, we highly recommend it!
For more general NBA DFS lineups advice and other contest & bankroll tips, check out our exclusive 19-chapter DFS e-book: The Ultimate Guide to Becoming a Profitable DFS Player.