NBA DFS Lineups Advice: October 20
The Daily Plug is our daily NBA DFS lineups advice write-up that highlights the top overall plays for the slate. The Plug then provides actionable information for the main slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly which types of contests to play -- all depending on the type of player you are. Consider the Plug an in-depth roadmap for the main slate. Let’s get to it! - @bruskiry_dfs @tgriff_07 and @tboyle24_DFS
Note that the Plug is only written for slates with 6+ games and is posted at least 2 hours before lock on game days. Want analysis for every player in tonight's games for your NBA DFS lineups? Check out the Occupy Model.
We know value is important in NBA DFS, so we have three columns in our Occupy Model -- DK Value, FD Value, and Y! Value -- to show how much value that player is on each site, as well as a dedicated injury report page. More nuanced advice for your NBA DFS lineups -- check it out:
Join our Discord channel to chat with staff and other members about your NBA DFS lineups.
Betting Odds & Line Movements:
Highest Scoring Games:
SAC @ POR (-6.5), 235 o/u
HOU @ MIN (-6.5), 231.5 o/u
PHI (-4) @ NO, 224 o/u
CHI: Troy Brown Jr. is Questionable, Coby White is OUT
DET: Cade Cunningham is OUT
IND: Caris Levert is OUT, TJ Warren is OUT, Jeremy Lamb is Questionable, Justin Holiday is Questionable, Brogdon is Probable
CHA: Rozier is Questionable and Bridges is Probable ROZIER OUT
BOS: Jaylen Brown is Questionable, Al Horford is OUT BROWN IN
NYK: Nerlens Noel is DOUBTFUL NOEL AND TAJ GIBSON OUT
WAS: Rui Hachimura is OUT, Thomas Bryant is OUT
TOR: Chris Boucher is Questionable, Pascal Siakam is OUT, Watanabe is OUT
PHI: Ben Simmons is OUT, Shake Milton is OUT
NO: Zion Williamson is OUT, Tomas Satoransky is Questionable
HOU: Daniel House is Questionable , John Wall is OUT
MIN: Patrick Beverly is OUT, Jaylen Nowell and Jordan McLaughlin are Questionable
CLE: Dylan Windler is OUT
MEM: Dillon Brooks is OUT
ORL: Markelle Fultz is OUT, Chuma Okeke is OUT, M. Carter Williams is OUT
SAS: Zach Collins is OUT
UTA: Rudy Gay is OUT, Eric Pachall is Probable
DEN: Jamal Murray is OUT
PHO: Dario Saric is OUT
POR: Tony Snell is OUT
Boost from Teammate(s) Absence
Top Point Guards
Damian Lillard ($10100 DK, $10000 FD)
De’Aaron Fox ($9300 DK, $8500 FD) (Preferred on FD)
Ja Morant ($9100 DK, $8200 FD)
D’Angelo Russell ($8500 DK, $7500 FD) (Preferred on FD)
Malcolm Brogdon ($7500 DK, $7300 FD)
Spencer Dinwiddie ($4900 DK, $6500 FD) (Preferred on DK)
Tyrese Maxey ($4000 DK, $4600 FD)
Monte Morris ($5000 DK, $4700 FD)
Top Shooting Guards
Fred VanVleet ($7500 DK, $8800 FD) (Preferred on DK) (PG eligible on both sites)
Zach Lavine ($8700 DK, $8200 FD)
Devin Booker ($8200 DK, $8100 FD)
Josh Jackson ($5500 DK, $5200 FD)
Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($6600 DK, $5100 FD)
Chris Duarte ($3300 DK, $4500 on FD, Preferred on DK)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($3400 DK, $4200 FD) (Preferred on DK)
Top Small Forwards
Jayson Tatum ($9400 DK, $10200 FD)
Brandon Ingram ($77000 DK, $8400 FD)
OG Anunoby ($6100 DK, $7400 FD) (Preferred on DK)
Kevin Porter (FD ONLY) ($7800 DK, $6100 FD)
Desmond Bane ($3200 DK, $4600 FD) (Preferred on DK)
Scottie Barnes ($3400 DK, $5200 FD) (Preferred on DK) (PF Eligible on both sites)
Top Power Forwards
Damontis Sabonis PF/C on both sites ($9800 DK, $9700 FD)
Christian Wood is PF/C on FD, only C on DK.($8000 DK, 8200 FD)
Tobias Harris is SF/PF on FD ($7800 DK, $7200 on FD) Preferred on FD
Keldon Johnson ($5100 DK, $6300 FD) (Preferred on DK)
Robert Covington ($5200 DK, $5800 FD) (Preferred on DK)
Jaren Jackson Jr. ($5900 DK, $7000 FD) (Preferred on DK)
Evan Mobley ($4500 DK, $4800 FD)
Precious Achiuwa ($3100 DK, $5000 FD) (Preferred on DK)
Joel Embiid ($10600 DK, $11000 FD)
Karl Anthony Towns ($9700 DK, $10800 FD)
Christian Wood ($8000 DK, $8200 FD)
Chris Boucher ($6500 DK, $6300 FD)
Mo Bamba ($5700 DK, $5300 DK)
Montrezl Harrell ($3100 DK, $5000 FD)
Updates posted in BLUE after Plug is published.
DraftKings Core: Tyrese Maxey, Fred VanVleet, Embiid/Towns
FanDuel Core: Tyrese Maxey, Kevin Porter Jr, Patrick Williams/Chris Duarte for value
Celtics Situation: BROWN IN
Although we are expecting Jaylen Brown to start tonight’s game for the Celtics, he is still listed as questionable vs the Knicks. Anyone starting would receive a small boost if Brown is out. There are a few players that stand out to us that would make the most sense on tonight’s slate: Jayson Tatum and Dennis Schroeder. This is assuming that Schroeder would receive the start in Browns place, or at a minimum receive 25+ minutes due to his absence. If Brown is active, he makes for an intriguing pivot play at the SG/SF position. Some players aware of the injury may opt to stay away from Brown, giving him a lower ownership %.
IF Brown Plays: Brown makes for a good low risk play.
If Brown OUT: Tatum & Schroeder.
Hornets Situation: ROZIER OUT
Terry Rozier is being listed as questionable for tonight’s game vs the Indiana Pacers. If Rozier were to sit this one out, that would give LaMelo Ball an immediate bump in his scoring., as he averages 18.1 without Rozier and 15.7 with Rozier. Not a massive bump, but when we also consider everything else LaMelo Ball does, the additional scoring opportunities can certainly be huge from a fantasy perspective. Side note: this game is also the 4th highest point total, as well as a close Vegas total.
If Rozier sits: LaMelo is upgraded on our model.
If Rozier plays: Rozier and LaMelo are both interesting high risk plays.
Bankroll Allocation, Contest Selection, and Lineup Construction:
For the first night of the NBA season, we need to be careful with our bankroll and need to stick to the basics. Even though everyone is excited for the season, we have to make sure we don’t go too far deep into our bankroll. Because it is the first night, and we have a bunch of teams on the slate, we should only play around 1-2% of our bankroll. We should focus on double ups, head to heads, and other low-risk contests (with the value that we have especially on DK). You can also play single entry tournaments if possible, and you can use any value play mentioned above to help fit your lineup and differentiate it from the field. Please refer to our model for ownership projections and tournament rankings.
Note that tonight's slate is unique as DraftKings' pricing algorithm is essentially broken -- tons of players are underpriced for the likely output. We tried to list most of those mispricings above.
Since today is the first NBA slate, going stars and scrubs is best approach for lineup building as there is value at almost every position -- use this for your low-risk contests. For high-risk contests, either pivot to less popular studs/values or switch to a balanced lineup construction.
Looking at historical NBA DFS lineups, top 1% lineups in tournaments generally see 20-30 percent average ownership per player. That is, if you add up all of the ownership in your lineup and divide it by the number of players in your lineup, it should fall between 20 and 30 percent. For full NBA high risk lineup construction tips, read our NBA Strategy Guide.
Also, continue to utilize the single-game model for all contest types. It has been extremely successful and for those of you who have not tried it yet, we highly recommend it!
For more general NBA DFS lineups advice and other contest & bankroll tips, check out our exclusive 19-chapter DFS e-book: The Ultimate Guide to Becoming a Profitable DFS Player.