NFL Daily Plug: Monday Night Edition
The Monday Daily Plug is an abbreviated version of the Sunday Daily Plug, intended to give you a quick rundown on Monday's NFL matchup for DFS and sports betting purposes. The highlights:
- Players to target/avoid in the Monday game
- Recommended bankroll allocation for the Monday Showdown slate
- Optimal contest selection
For analysis on every player for this slate, check out the Occupy Model.
NOTE: The Monday NFL Daily Plug will be posted by 2:30pm EST on game days.
MIN -5 (-0.5), 47
Team Totals (move)
Packers 21 (+0.25)
Vikings 26 (+0.75)
Spread Bet Percentages
Green Bay 57%
Injuries to Watch
Dalvin Cook has already been ruled out, while backup RB Alexander Mattison is more doubtful than questionable. If he cannot go, Mike Boone will be the lead back.
UPDATE: MATTISON OFFICIALLY INACTIVE
Since returning from his toe injury, Davante Adams has absolutely dominated opportunity in the Packers passing game. Over the last three weeks specifically, he has doubled the air yards and tripled the targets of any other pass-catcher on the roster. In a borderline high total game (47) where we lean towards using WRs and TEs in our CPT/MVP spot in high-risk contests, Adams is a top choice as the number one overall play in our Occupy Model tonight.
Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen
What better way to celebrate Christmas week with an underperforming WR on a Showdown slate? Travis Kelce was the top underperforming TE this week, and he finished as the optimal captain in the Sunday night DK single game slate. Stefon Diggs was just one of four WRs on “the list” this week, as he’s drawn 336 air yards on 24 targets over the last three games. Even with Thielen back last week, he led the team in both categories. He’s a top two play in the model, and a top CPT/MVP option in high-risk contests.
Speaking of Thielen, he was eased back into action playing just 51 percent of the snaps in his return last week. He should be back to a full time role tonight after no setback, and he’s a sneaky high-risk option that should see significantly less ownership than Diggs.
Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins
Not much to say here, as we have a typical QB night for a single game slate. Both Rodgers and Cousins rank in the top four on DraftKings but are the top two options on FanDuel. Play both guys in low-risk lineups on both sites -- try to fit them in your CPT spot on DK, while you have to have one as your MVP on FD. For high-risk contests, exclude them from your DK CPT pool while having 50-70 percent exposure in the FLEX spots. On FD, they should be your top two MVP options -- just be sure to leave $2,000 or more in salary left over if you’re playing leagues, GPPs, or super satellites.
During the first two years of his career, Aaron Jones scored a touchdown once every 22 opportunities (carries plus targets). This season, the positive variance has hit, as he’s scoring once every 14.5 opportunities. Jones has boom-bust potential based on his touchdown scoring -- he has as many games this season (5) scoring less than 10 DraftKings points as he does scoring more than 25 DK points. If you have to fade one of the QBs/RBs in your low-risk lineup, Jones is the best bet. In high-risk contests, the best strategy is to either CPT/MVP him or fade him.
With Cook out and Mattison doubtful to play, it should be the Mike Boone show tonight. Despite not playing entire games, Boone has averaged 11 carries for 49 yards and a touchdown -- plus 1.7 receptions for 18 yards -- per game over eight career preseason games. In limited time in the regular season, he’s averaged 4.5 yards per carry with two touchdowns. The dude is a home run hitter and a perfect fit for this offense; dynasty players and NFL preseason degenerates have been waiting for Boone to get an opportunity for two years now. The best way to think about Boone tonight is imagine Dalvin Cook being this price. How much would you play him? The answer is a lot, and he’s a top play -- both in FLEX and MVP -- in all contest types if Mattison sits as expected.
UPDATE: MATTISON OFFICIALLY INACTIVE
While Aaron Jones has been getting all the fantasy love (and rightfully so), the workload split hasn’t been that drastic between Jones and Jamaal Williams. Over the last three weeks, it’s been roughly a 60/40 split in both snaps and touches for the two Packers RBs, so its not completely out of the question that Williams outscores Jones in a single game. Williams is worth a high-risk dart throw in lineups that don’t include Jones.
C.J. Ham, Ameer Abdullah
If Mattison is out, fullback C.J. Ham should get a couple change of pace carries and the occasional look in the passing game (he did have three targets last week) in relief of Boone. Ham is an excellent high-risk dart throw for those “leave a lot salary leftover” lineups (especially with popular CPT/MVP choices).
Ameer Abdullah is another #chaos play, as he should get some targets and potentially work in two minute drill and come-from-behind scenarios. Like Ham, he’s another salary saving dart throw, and he’s best used in non-Boone lineups.
Green Bay’s other WRs
None of Green Bay’s non-Adams receivers rank higher than 13th in the model. Over the last three weeks, only one had a game with five or more targets (Jimmy Graham, 5). Only one other had a game with four targets (Allen Lazard, last week). All are low ceiling plays only worth using if you’re making more than 20 lineups.
One guy worth noting, though, is Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He has an OF Index of 0 in the model because he’s not expected to see three or more targets, but at his price, he needs just one bomb to pay off in high-risk contests with his 29.3 aDOT over the last three weeks. Treat him similarly to Ham and Abdullah.
None of the kickers nor defenses rank that highly in the model. If playing low-risk contests, your best bet to fill in the rest of your roster is with Dan Bailey or Mason Crosby. In high-risk contests, have limited exposure to both defenses and kickers, as we prefer the cheaper RBs and WRs with higher upside.
Low Risk Strategy
On both sites, it’s really difficult, if not impossible, to fit in Rodgers, Cousins, Jones, and Boone in a low-risk lineup. You can certainly still play low-risk contests if you can find contests with inexperienced players, and in those cases, it’s recommended you exclude Jones from the above four to make your lineup work.
High Risk Strategy
Stick to Adams, Diggs, Jones, and Boone for your high-risk CPT pool (add Rodgers and Cousins, and use them heavily, if playing on FD). Tonight, leave at least $1,500 left over in each of your high-risk lineups, and because of the upside in some of the cheaper plays (Ham, Abdullah, MVS), you can leave as much as $4,000 to $5,000 on the table to help create a unique lineup in super high-risk contests.
Use just 1-2% of your bankroll on this slate, adding another 1% if you can find soft low-risk contests.
It’s another great night for satellites -- create as many lineups as possible within your bankroll so that you can enter each into 100-player leagues, multipliers, and satellites. For example, if you have $12 in allocation tonight, create six lineups, entering $1 for each lineup into a 100-player league (or Quintuple Up) and $1 in satellites. Your goal tonight should be coming away with a couple of tickets with an added bonus of an outside shot at 25-50x cash return in your leagues.
Satellites to target:
Small bankrolls -- NFL Big Game Bowl, NBA Santa Slam, NBA Legendary Layup, NBA Spectacular Slam, and PGA MEGA Eagle on FanDuel; NFL Millionaire Maker and NBA Holiday Million on DraftKings.
Larger bankrolls -- all of the above plus the NBA Alley Oop, NBA MEGA Monster and NBA Hang Time on FanDuel; NFL Wildcat and NFL MEGA Millionaire on DraftKings.
Satellite notes: FanDuel is now offering PGA satellites for the 2020 Masters, for which our PGA Model will be live for members. Start racking up tickets! As for NBA on FanDuel, there is a $1,500 entry Alley Oop on February 25 (two months out). While that’ll be a tough ticket to win in a regular satellite, FD is also running MEGA satellites, similar to what they did for the Fan Championship. Try to earn MEGA qualifier tickets in hopes of securing a massive NBA entry.
DFS Magic, the lineup builder we’ve partnered with for the NFL regular season, now has single game functionality to help you create those cheap, high risk lineups! You can even directly import the Occupy Model OF Index for each player, PLUS receive recommended player pool recommendations from our single-game million dollar winner Brian Jester. If you do not have access to DFS Magic, send us an e-mail.
You can read more about risk tolerance and contest selection in our Ultimate Guide to Becoming a Profitable DFS Player.