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NFL DFS Picks

NFL Daily Plug: Thanksgiving Edition - Classic & Showdown DFS Picks & Advice for FanDuel & DraftKings

The Thursday Daily Plug is an abbreviated version of the Sunday Daily Plug, intended to give you some tips, picks, and lineup advice for Thursday’s single game NFL matchup for DFS and sports betting purposes. The highlights:

    • Player rankings and NFL DFS picks for various contest types
    • Overall slate thoughts from Occupy staff member bismo
    • Specific lineup constructions for different contest sizes
    • Bankroll and contest recommendations

BEFORE READING:

Note: Plug will be updated by 5pm EST for each Thursday primetime slate.

UPDATES WILL BE IN BLUE AFTER THE PLUG IS PUBLISHED.

Betting Odds:

Biggest Favorites:
Dallas Cowboys, -10
Buffalo Bills, -9

Highest Totals:
BUF@DET, 55
NYG@DAL, 45

Highest Team Totals:
Buffalo Bills, 32
Dallas Cowboys, 27.5
Detroit Lions, 23
Minnesota Vikings, 22.25

Lowest Team Totals:
New York Giants, 17.5
New England Patriots, 19.75

Spread Bet Percentages

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Injuries To Watch:

DET WR Josh Reynolds: Questionable (back), upgraded to LPs Tues & Wed. Monitor.
NYG WR Richie James: Questionable (knee) after two LPs Tues & Wed. Expected to play slot in place of Wan’Dale Robinson (out, ACL).
NE WR DeVante Parker: Questionable (knee) after LPs all week. Monitor.
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DET D/ST: Missing two DEs (Harris & Paschal) and one CB (Okudah).
DET OL: Missing two guards (Brown and Jackson).
NYG OL: Missing 4 players (Ezeudu, Feliciano, Neal and Lemieux). 2 additional are questionable (Phillips and Thomas).
NE OL: Missing Isaiah Wynn at tackle, while C David Andrews is questionable.
MIN CBs: Down 2 players in Andrew Booth and Akayleb Evans
Mitch Morse: Bills C, DNPs in practice all week. Monitor.

NFL Classic & Showdown DFS Picks & Player Rankings:

Below are our preferred plays for different contest types and roster spots. Plays are listed in order of preference. 

Definitions:
Low-Risk: Contests where roughly half the field doubles their entry fee (e.g. H2Hs, Double Ups, etc.)
Small-Field High-Risk: Contests with exponential payouts and/or where a smaller portion of the field gets paid with less than 500 entrants (e.g. Multipliers, Leagues, smaller GPPs)
Large-Field High-Risk: Contests with exponential payouts and/or where a smaller portion of the field gets paid with more than 500 entrants (e.g. Multipliers, Leagues, smaller GPPs)

NFL Classic

Quarterbacks:

Low-Risk: BUF Josh Allen, DAL Dak Prescott

High-Risk: DET Jared Goff, MIN Kirk Cousins

In low-risk contests, we’re always going to favor dual threat QBs, particularly when they are in high total games or when they’re large favorites (This week, Josh Allen).

Our favorite game stack for Thursday is DET@BUF. On short slates, it's much more acceptable to super stack a game. We see 3+ players from one team in winning lineups frequently on short slates. The Bills have the most appeal at a slate-high 32 point team total on this slate.

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