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NFL Daily Plug: Thursday Edition

NFL DFS Picks Thursday

The Thursday Daily Plug is an abbreviated version of the Sunday Daily Plug, intended to give you some tips, picks, and lineup advice for Thursday’s single game NFL matchup for DFS and sports betting purposes. The highlights:

  • Players to target/avoid in the Thursday game
  • Recommended bankroll allocation for the Thursday Showdown slate
  • Optimal contest selection for the single game slate

The Thursday NFL Daily Plug will be posted by 4pm EST on game days. 

For analysis on every player for this slate, check out the Occupy Model.

For in-depth single game NFL DFS strategy, download our NFL Showdown DFS Strategy Guide to get a huge edge on the field.

Let's get to the game!

Betting Odds:

Spread, Total
TB -3.5, 45

Team Totals (move)
Bucs 24.25 (-1.0)
Bears 20.75 (+1.0)

Spread Bet Percentages
Tampa Bay 53%
Chicago 47%

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Injuries To Watch:

TB WR Mike Evans is officially questionable with a high ankle sprain and will be a game time decision. National reports say there is optimism he plays. If he cannot suit up or is limited, Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson get even bigger bumps while Cyril Grayson and Jaydon Mickens will see more playing time.

UPDATE 1: Mike Evans is active. We expect him to be limited and/or used in only high leverage situations. He's a better FanDuel play than DraftKings play. Analysis still holds true below.

UPDATE 2: Leonard Fournette is randomly active, but it's likely an emergency situation as he hasn't practiced in 10 days. Nothing changes with the TB backfield. 

Expensive Plays:

Tom Brady
After a 369-yard five-touchdown performance versus the Chargers last week, expect Tom Brady to be the most popular player on tonight’s slate. He has a high floor and a high ceiling, so when paired with his popularity, he’s the easy choice in low-risk contests, especially at CPT/MVP.

But, he’s going to be missing a ton of weapons tonight -- Chris Godwin, Justin Watson, OJ Howard, with Mike Evans likely limited in some capacity if he suits up. The betting markets, despite more bets coming in on Tampa Bay, are favoring Chicago, as the spread has moved two points in their favor. 

On DraftKings, our model believes he will be over-owned relative to his likely performance -- we prefer excluding him from our high-risk CPT player pool.

He’s a tougher fade on FanDuel, but he’s going to be massively popular at MVP. Either fade him at MVP (and play him heavily in FLEX) or go 100% Brady at MVP to get leverage.

Want to read the rest?

The full NFL Thursday Plug is available for members only. Get the rest of the popular plays, our top low-owned players, our Contest Selection section that gives you the most profitable contest types for this game, AND our premium podcast with Showdown extraordinaire Colin Drew of Daily Roto.

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