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NFL Daily Plug: Saturday Edition


This is the Week 16 Saturday Edition of the NFL Daily Plug! The team has written up a guide to the slate using the Occupy Model, betting line movements, and news updates. Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Saturday if anything changes.

For analysis on every player for this slate, check out the Occupy Model.

NOTE: THE SATURDAY NFL DFS TWITCH STREAM WILL START AT 11AM EST, COVERING BOTH THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SLATES. 

Betting Odds:

Biggest Favorites:
Patriots -7
49ers -7

Highest Game Totals:
HOU@TB, 50
LAR@SF, 44.5

Highest Implied Team Totals:
Texans, 26.5
49ers, 25.75
Buccaneers, 23.5

Lowest Implied Team Totals:
Bills, 15.25
Rams, 18.75
Patriots, 22.25

TEXANS @ BUCCANEERS

Injuries:

  • Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller are out for Tampa. Breshad Perriman and Justin Watson will be the primary WRs for the Bucs with Ishmael Hyman the likely No. 3 WR.
  • Will Fuller V and Carlos Hyde are listed as questionable, but both are expected to play. 

Texans Notes:

  • Expect Deshaun Watson to be the highest owned quarterback on the three game slate, and for good reason -- he leads the Occupy Model in OF Index and the Texans have the highest team total on the slate (26.5). 
  • Carlos Hyde inexplicably played his most snaps of the season last week (67 percent), but now he’s slightly banged up with an ankle injury and facing a defense that has allowed just one RB to rush for more than 75 yards this season. 
  • Duke Johnson Jr is a great high-risk play in the hopes that he plays more than 50 percent of the snaps on a slate where there are no true “lock and load” RBs. 
  • DeAndre Hopkins is the highest priced player on the slate, and he will be wildly popular as a result (think 70 percent-plus). He’s a lock in low-risk contests with a slate-leading 9.4 projected targets. 
  • Will Fuller is cheaper than Hopkins, and he will also be uber-popular because of the higher game total and friendly matchup. Note that he ranks higher on FanDuel than DraftKings in our model. 
  • Kenny Stills plays roughly 60 percent of the snaps when Will Fuller is active, but he’s drawn just nine targets over the last three Fuller games (Weeks 12, 13, and 15). He’ll be over-owned after his two-touchdown performance a week ago. 
  • Both Jordan Akins and Darren Fells should play 50 percent or more of the snaps in this contest. Every non-George Kittle TE on the slate is clumped together in the model, but Akins is the highest of the group on DK (Fells ranks higher than Akins on FD). 
  • Akins has run a route on ~80% of Watson’s dropbacks in the last two weeks, while Fells has run a route on ~45% (Pro Football Focus). 

Bucs Notes:

  • Jameis Winston is right behind Deshaun Watson in salary and projected ownership after throwing for 900-plus yards and eight touchdowns over his last two games. But now down three of his top four WRs -- and with the Bucs’ team total dropping a full three points since lines opened -- he’ll probably be over-owned relative to his floor/ceiling combination in all contest types. 
  • Head coach Bruce Arians revealed this week that will all of the injuries to the wide receivers, they may be forced to throw short passes, especially to the RBs. This game plan would also lower Winston’s ceiling, as he’s thrown for 1,000 more air yards than any other QB this season (wtf). Maybe Arians looked at the film/numbers, too, as Houston allows the most RB receptions per game this season. 
  • Ronald Jones II is still considered the starting RB, and at his cheap price tag, is an incredible high-risk play that could finish the slate with the most fantasy points if Arians holds true to his word -- he ranks fourth in the model on both FD and DK. 
  • With both Evans and Godwin out, Breshad Perriman is the WR1 after playing 89 percent of the snaps a week ago and scoring three touchdowns on six targets. He should get volume in a high total game, making him a top low-risk option, but the model is hesitant to award Perriman with a high ceiling in this game. We recommend fading him unless you’re stacking that game in your leagues, satellites, and GPPs. 
  • Justin Watson is the clear WR after Perriman, running 56 percent of the snaps last week but drawing just two targets. In an increased role, the model projects Watson as a middling option who should see 5-6 targets.
  • The Bucs should play more 2TE sets in this game, leaving WR3 Ishmael Hyman to play 50 percent of the snaps or less -- he’s a high-risk, min-priced dart throw. 
  • With all of the WR injuries, Winston told his tight ends O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate this week that “they’re going to get the rock.” Our model agrees, projecting them for the third- and fourth-most targets at the position respectively on Saturday. 

Showdown low-risk plays:
Deshaun Watson, Winston, Hopkins, Jones, Hyde, Johnson, Barber, DSTs, PKs

3- game low-risk plays:
Deshaun Watson, Hopkins, Fuller, Winston, Jones, Perriman, Howard

High-risk plays:
Johnson, Hyman, Akins, Brate, Justin Watson

Single game strategy:
On DK, it’s possible to fit in 2 QB (1 at CPT) + 2 RB, so most of your allocation should be in low-risk contests there. On FD, it’s much tougher to do that, so play just high-risk contests there. On both sites, with a 50-point game total, you should be looking to the WRs/TEs at CPTs/MVPs in your leagues/satellites/GPPs: Hopkins, Fuller, Perriman, Watson, Howard. 

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