NFL Daily Plug: Thursday Edition
The Thursday Daily Plug is an abbreviated version of the Sunday Daily Plug, intended to give you a quick rundown on Thursday’s NFL matchup for DFS and sports betting purposes. The highlights:
- Players to target/avoid in the Thursday game
- Recommended bankroll allocation for the Thursday Showdown slate
- Optimal contest selection for the single game slate
For analysis on every player for this slate, check out the Occupy Model.
Let’s get to the game!
KC -3, 48.5
Team Totals (move)
Chiefs 25.75 (0)
Broncos 22.75 (0)
Spread Bet Percentages
Kansas City 62%
Betting odds and percentage information from SportsInteraction. Use our link to get a 100% bonus up to $200!
Injuries To Watch:
None to watch, but Sammy Watkins is officially out.
Patrick Mahomes II
It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone, but Mahomes is in his own tier in the Occupy Model tonight on both FanDuel and DraftKings. While he continues to reaggravate the high ankle sprain he suffered early in the season -- and playing on a short week certainly won’t help his ceiling tonight -- he’s still managed to combine for 594 passing yards and four touchdowns in his last two games. He’s as safe of a play as you can find in low-risk single game DFS lineups (so use him as your low-risk CPT/MVP) but we know he’ll be insanely high-owned. The last time Kansas City played on a primetime single game slate, Mahomes was rostered in 92 percent of lineups and his CPT/MVP ownership approached 30 percent in GPPs. If you plan on winning some leagues/GPPs/satellites tonight, using Mahomes in your CPT spot is undeniably the wrong move.
Tyreek returned from his shoulder injury last week and was eased into action, playing just 29 of the team’s 58 snaps (50 percent). The good news, however, is that he managed a ridiculous 29 percent target share (10 targets) and was used in his usual role (17.1 average depth of target). Expect his snap count to increase this week, and again expect him to have one of the higher ceilings on the slate. On DK, especially with his target volume, Hill is decently safe and ranks as a top-three play. On FD, however, he’s ranked outside the top seven due to his price tag and the fact that he probably won’t score two touchdowns on 10 targets again this week. He’ll likely be the second most popular MVP/CPT, and while we can’t fault that for being the case, we’re going to zig while the masses zag and dig deeper tonight for that 1.5X multiplier bonus in high-risk lineups.
Kansas City will be without CB Kendall Fuller and potentially CB Bashaud Breeland tonight, and they’ll once again be missing stud defensive tackle Chris Jones. There should be little resistance from the Chiefs’ defense tonight, especially after being on the field for a whopping 83 plays four days ago versus Houston. Flacco is a top five play in the model, an easy play in low-risk contests, and perhaps even a MVP/CPT in high-risk lineups. We generally shy away from QBs in that spot given the likely high ownership, but Mahomes/Hill will take all the attention away from other players in this matchup. We prefer positional players, but if you’re using dfs Magic to make 20+ lineups, Flacco can certainly be in your MVP/CPT pool.
Last year, Kelce scored a touchdown once every 10.3 targets. This year, he’s scored just a single touchdown on 32 targets. Touchdown regression is coming, especially considering the fact that he’s unbelievably scored zero times on his eight red zone targets. He’s a bit lower in the model today, and that’s likely some bias on the model’s part due to Denver’s defense versus tight ends this season (allowing just 10 DK points per game to the position). However, they’ve faced zero elite tight ends (and like one decent tight end), so we can ignore this “matchup.” Bank on TD regression instead and use Kelce liberally in your high-risk lineups.
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