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NFL Daily Plug: Thursday Edition

NFL DFS Picks Thursday

The Thursday Daily Plug is an abbreviated version of the Sunday Daily Plug, intended to give you some tips, picks, and lineup advice for Thursday’s single game NFL matchup for DFS and sports betting purposes. The highlights:

  • Players to target/avoid in the Thursday game
  • Recommended bankroll allocation for the Thursday Showdown slate
  • Optimal contest selection for the single game slate

The Thursday NFL Daily Plug will be posted by 4pm EST on game days. 

For analysis on every player for this slate, check out the Occupy Model.

For in-depth single game NFL DFS strategy, download our NFL Showdown DFS Strategy Guide to get a huge edge on the field.

Let's get to the game!

Betting Odds:

Spread, Total
PHI -4.5, 44.5

Team Totals (move)
Giants 20.00 (+0.25)
Eagles 24.50 (-0.75)

Spread Bet Percentages
New York 36%
Philadelphia 64%

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Injuries To Watch:

NYG WR Sterling Shepard was designated to return from the IR, participating in practice this week for the first time in nearly a month. He’ll have to be activated before Thursday afternoon in order to be eligible to play. If he can’t play -- which is what we’re projecting -- it will be Darius Slayton, Golden Tate, and Austin Mack as the top 3 WRs for NYG. UPDATE: SHEPARD ACTIVE. ANALYSIS BELOW STILL APPLIES

Expensive Plays:

Carson Wentz
Carson Wentz can breathe a sigh of relief heading into this matchup with the Giants, as he’ll welcome his tackle Lane Johnson back into the lineup against a defense that generates much less pressure than Wentz’s last two opponents. Pittsburgh (44 percent) and Baltimore (33 percent) are the top two defenses in pressures generated, while the Giants rank middle of the pack at 26 percent.

It’s also helpful that speedster DeSean Jackson will return after missing the last three games.

Especially with no other stud options in this game, Wentz is a top option in our model for both FanDuel and DraftKings, and he’s the preferred MVP option in all contest types on FD. The only question is how should we roster the likely most popular player in high-risk contests, especially on DraftKings -- read our high-risk strategy below. 

Want to read the rest?

The full NFL Thursday Plug is available for members only. Get the rest of Showdown Millionaire Brian Jester's plays, our top low-owned players, our Contest Selection section that gives you the most profitable contest types for this game, AND our premium podcast with Showdown extraordinaire Colin Drew of Daily Roto.

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