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NFL Daily Plug: Wild Card Saturday

NFL DFS Picks

This is the Wild Card Saturday NFL Daily Plug! 

Follow Occupy Fantasy on Twitter for updates through lock.

Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE throughout Saturday if anything changes. For NFL Inactives, visit this link to the NFL.com page - updates roughly 90 minutes before kickoff for each game.

Consider the Plug an in-depth road map for the Saturday 3-game and Showdown slates. Let’s get to it!

Want analysis for every player on the slate? Check out the Occupy Model. Want help building lineups? Our Lineup Builder is available now for as little as $4 a week!

Betting Odds:

Biggest Favorites:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, -7.5
Buffalo Bills, -6.5

Highest Game Totals:
IND@BUF, 51.5

Highest Implied Team Total:
Buffalo Bills, 29
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 26.25

Lowest Implied Team Total:
Los Angeles Rams, 18.75
Washington Football Team, 19.5

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Games To Stack

All of them! While that sounds silly, it's an important note for short slates to understand. 

Correlation is most likely to help you climb leaderboards in these DFS environments. Stacking a minimum of 2 players (QB and a skill player) with at least one of their opponents should be the baseline of all your tournament lineups.

Your baseline should be to start with QB-WR1 stacks for all teams, using the opposing WR1 if possible. For example, let’s say you want to stack the Colts and the Bills  this week. You should start by thinking about the kinds of lineups you can build around Philip Rivers and T.Y. Hilton together (or Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs on the other side).

Now, let’s dive into the games!

COLTS @ BILLS

Injuries
Cole Beasley is unlikely to play due to a knee injury. He was a DNP twice this week in practice. He is listed Questionable. UPDATE: Bills are expected to have both Diggs and Beasley available. We still feel Diggs is way more likely to see closer to his usual workload. 
Stefon Diggs is listed as Questionable with an oblique injury but expected to play.
DeForest Buckner (Colts DT) is listed Questionable with an ankle injury but expected to play.
Rock Ya-Sin (Colts CB) is OUT with a concussion. Colts down 1 starting CB.
Will Holden (Colts T) is OUT with an ankle injury.

Colts Notes

    • Philip Rivers projects for just 10% ownership in our Model this Saturday. The Bills project to bring the least amount of pressure on the QB of all defenses on Saturday.
    • The Colts like to bring Jacoby Brissett in for QB rush situations, which is aggravating near the goal line - but Rivers is a strong low owned GPP play, given that this game has the highest implied total of the day.
    • The Colts three-headed backfield is now a two-headed backfield - Jordan Wilkins has zero touches in the last 3 weeks. He’s no longer a factor.
    • Jonathan Taylor has a 72% share of the carries in the last 3 weeks (64 of 88), and his red zone role has solidified in that stretch, with 14 carries and 2 targets (for 4 TDs), compared to just 4 carries and 2 targets for Nyheim Hines.
    • Nyheim Hines is your man for a trailing game script, especially on PPR sites like DraftKings. Hines maintained a ~16% target share in the last 3 weeks, which gives him a safe projection of about 5 targets this Saturday. 
    • If you’ve read our Plugs all season, you know we love targeting guys with strong air yard and target shares in recent weeks. After being unstackable all season, we finally have some concentrated volume to lean on with the Colts. 
    • T.Y. Hilton suddenly owns a 41% share of IND’s air yards in the last 3 weeks, and a 22% target share (AirYards.com). BUF was the 23rd DVOA defense against WR1s in 2020 (Football Outsiders). He’s also on our “yooper” list this week, as one of only 2 underperformers on the Saturday slate. Behind him, Zach Pascal and Michael Pittman Jr. are the next most involved WRs in the offense. Pascal lined up in the slot on ~71% of his routes this year (PFF), so expect the Colts to continue with him there, and Hilton/Pittman on the outside.
    • At TE, Jack Doyle has leapt back up to TE1 status. His targets and air yards double those of Trey Burton, and Mo Alie-Cox is a distant third.

Bills Notes 

    • Josh Allen is the chalk QB in all contest types Saturday. He projects for over 50% ownership on FanDuel and DraftKings, and has the highest implied team total of the entire weekend on his side. 
    • In low-risk contests and smaller field tournaments (Saturday only), there’s a lot of merit to just eating the chalk with Allen and differentiating elsewhere.
    • Zack Moss and Devin Singletary are splitting reps. Moss has the clear ground game edge - he has a 48% share of the carries in recent weeks, while Singletary’s is 31%.
    • Neither of them sees a ton of targets, but Singletary sees more. 
    • Moss has 7 carries and a TD in the red zone in the last 3 weeks; Singletary has 4 carries and 2 targets. 
    • Both RBs project for modest ownership in our Model, and are interesting high-risk pivots off the BUF passing game.
    • WR on this slate starts with the Stefon Diggs decision. He’s the highest ranked WR in our Model, he projects for the most targets, and he projects for the highest ownership. Diggs owns roughly a 30% share of the air yards and targets from Allen in recent weeks. Diggs is glued to the outside (~70% of his routes), which is exactly where you want him to be with Allen under center. 
    • Allen/Diggs will be the highest owned stack. The only real reason not to run it is a game theory bet it won’t actually be the highest scoring stack.
    • John Brown ran over 90% of his routes lined up out wide (PFF). He’s clearly back to full strength, as he appears to have gotten a significant run with the first string in Week 17, his first game back. Expect him to play a full complement of snaps now that it is playoff time.
    • The most likely scenario is that Cole Beasley is inactive, every other WR is active. If we’re wrong about that - Beasley is the clear slot WR in this offense, and the three WR set will simply be Diggs/Brown/Beasley for virtually the entire game, and should be the only WRs to consider on the Bills in most contest types.
    • If we’re right, expect Isaiah McKenzie to pick up the slack for most of the voided slot route reps. Gabriel Davis ran a route on about 40-50% of dropbacks consistently when Buffalo was at full strength, with roughly a third of his routes in the slot. It’s clear Buffalo will try to get him on the field at times when called for, which makes him a strong high-risk, large field play no matter what.
    • Dawson Knox runs a route on 63% of dropbacks in recent weeks, and has a ~14% target share in the last 3 weeks of play. He’s the only TE to consider on the Bills really.

      Single Game/Showdown Low-Risk Player Pool

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Situation statistics sourced from Pro-Football-Reference.com’s Play Index Finder. DVOA data from FootballOutsiders.com. Air yards data pulled from AirYards.com. All salaries from contest providers. While we like the player pool selected above, we reserve the right to roster other players should news and trends closer to lock push us in that direction. Pay attention to our stream schedule for discussion of those thoughts!