NFL Daily Plug – Main Slate

NFL DFS Picks & Strategy, Super Bowl LV

This is the Super Bowl LV NFL DFS Plug! Occupy Fantasy is the only place you can get NFL DFS lineup advice for FanDuel and DraftKings Super Bowl contests from a Super Bowl DFS Millionaire - Brian Jester, aka “courtjesters” on DraftKings.

Brian and Occupy NFL DFS contributor Chris Rooney have written up a guide to the slate using the Occupy Model, betting line movements, Occupy’s prop plays, and news updates. Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE if anything changes after it’s published. 

Follow Occupy Fantasy on Twitter for updates through lock.

Want analysis for every player in the Super Bowl? Check out the Occupy Model. Want help building lineups? Use our Lineup Builder to optimally create up to 150 lineups.

BETTING ODDS

Favorite:
Chiefs -3

Team Totals:
Chiefs, 29.5
Buccaneers, 26.5

SUPER BOWL PROPS

A special offer this season - all Occupy Fantasy Twitch subscribers will receive a copy of our Super Bowl LV Prop Guide. Once you subscribe on Twitch, you’ll receive access to our Discord channel, where the guide is posted in the Super Bowl channel.

This guide was +9 units last year, +20 units in 2019, and has not had a losing Super Bowl since its inception in 2012.

Listen to our Super Bowl Props podcast here. 

INJURIES

 For the Chiefs, WR Sammy Watkins and RB Le’Veon Bell are QUESTIONABLE -- both missed the conference championship game but are expected to play Sunday. Left tackle Eric Fisher is OUT. 

On the Bucs side, WR Antonio Brown is DOUBTFUL but there is optimism he can suit up for the big game. TE Cameron Brate was downgraded late in the week with a back issue, but he is expected to play. 

EXPENSIVE PLAYS

Patrick Mahomes

The most expensive player on both sites for the Super Bowl single game slate, Patrick Mahomes is going to carry the most ownership by a wide margin -- we project 80 percent overall ownership on DraftKings (21 percent of that at CPT) and 82 percent overall on FanDuel (45 percent of that at MVP). Yet despite similar roster popularity between FanDuel and DraftKings, our strategy to deploy Mahomes couldn’t be more different depending on the site we’re playing. 

Let’s start with DraftKings. Ever since the single game format was introduced, Mahomes has played in 22 primetime Showdown slates. But because of his pricing and the DK scoring, he’s only appeared in the optimal lineup 59 percent of the time at FLEX and 18 percent of the time at CPT: 

In the 3 seasons #DraftKings has offered Showdown contests, we've had a large sample of Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady main slate games.

Will the field *over* estimate how often they end up in the first place lineup in large field tournaments? Check it out: pic.twitter.com/A64uxEFtYM

— Chris Rooney (@cdr02989) February 1, 2021

Yes, those optimal lineup figures are close to his projected ownership for this matchup, but we also have to realize that most of his optimal performances were against lesser opponents that didn’t feature fantasy studs like Tom Brady, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin to eat up optimal lineup potential. 

For DraftKings high-risk contests, we recommend excluding Mahomes from your CPT pool while limiting yourself to 60 percent FLEX exposure (up to 80 percent if you’re playing smaller contests). There are tons of options in this game -- not to mention the variety of ways that Mahomes can fail -- that allow us to get slightly different than the field by playing less Mahomes.

Now on FanDuel, it’s the opposite -- we actually get an MVP/FLEX discount from a usual Mahomes game where he typically approaches 60 percent at MVP and 90 percent overall. The 0.5PPR scoring and lack of a salary multiplier indicates that there is a very likely chance that Mahomes ends up in the optimal lineup. Make Mahomes your most-exposed MVP while considering him in nearly 100 percent of your FanDuel lineups in either the MVP or FLEX spots. 

And if you’re playing low-risk contests in the Super Bowl (congrats on being a grinder, btw), start your lineup with Mahomes at CPT/MVP.