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NFL DFS Picks & Strategy, Week 4 Main Slate

NFL DFS Picks
DET RB Jamaal Williams

This is the Sunday Main Slate NFL Daily Plug! Occupy Fantasy’s Chris Rooney has written up a guide to the slate using the Occupy Model, betting line movements, and news updates. Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes.

NFL DFS Plug is posted for Main Slates, and is fully updated by 10:00pm on Fridays. 

Follow Occupy Fantasy on Twitter for updates through lock. Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes. 

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UPDATES:

Sunday, 9:30am: 30+ mph winds expected in Baltimore. We updated our game stacks section below.
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Saturday 4pm EST: DET WR DJ Chark is OUT. Josh Reynolds will be the WR1. 

BETTING ODDS

Biggest Favorites:
Green Bay Packers, -9.5
Philadelphia Eagles, -6.5
Los Angeles Chargers, -5.5

Highest Game Totals:
BUF@BAL, 51
CLE@ATL, 47.5
SEA@DET, 47.5
DEN@LV, 45.5
JAX@PHI, 45.5

Highest Implied Team Totals:
Buffalo Bills, 27
Philadelphia Eagles, 26
Detroit Lions, 25.5
Los Angeles Chargers, 25.25
Green Bay Packers, 24.75

Lowest Implied Team Totals:
New England Patriots, 15.25
Chicago Bears, 18.25
New York Jets, 19
Washington Commanders, 19.25
Jacksonville Jaguars, 19.5

NFL DFS Strategy Guide

 

Read Our Free Strategy Guide

WEEK 4 WEATHER SPOTS

JAX@PHI: Since it's anticipated to be very windy in the city of Brotherly Love, this game's total has dropped by at least 3 points since it opened. Rain is also in the forecast. This game's total has now dropped 6 points due to weather. Betting markets are confirming the downside risk.
BUF@BAL: 20+ mph winds are typically bad news for aerial assaults. Monitor the forecast in Baltimore going into Sunday. Now expecting 30+ mph winds, and the total has dropped 3+ points at sportsbooks. Betting markets are confirming the downside risk.

INJURIES TO WATCH

Mac Jones: out on Sunday night, Green Bay’s defense gets to tee off against Brian Hoyer.
D’Andre Swift & Amon-Ra St. Brown: out for DET, means Jamaal Williams starts at RB, and Chark/Raymond (both questionable) start at WR if active. Chark is OUT. 
Hunter Renfrow: Will be OUT again for LV, locking in Adams & Hollins as the main WRs once again.

Cardinals WRs: AJ Green is out, Marquise Brown, Greg Dortch & Rondale Moore are each questionable. Moore returning may make Dortch unplayable.
Christian McCaffrey: may not be able to go after missing practices, monitor.
David Montgomery: out after not practicing, Khalil Herbert will start at RB.

NFL DFS Picks - Best Plays By Position

Below are our preferred plays for different contest types and roster spots. Plays are listed in order of preference. 

Definitions:
Low-Risk: Contests where roughly half the field doubles their entry fee (e.g. H2Hs, Double Ups, etc.)
Small-Field High-Risk: Contests with exponential payouts and/or where a smaller portion of the field gets paid with less than 500 entrants (e.g. Multipliers, Leagues, smaller GPPs)
Large-Field High-Risk: Contests with exponential payouts and/or where a smaller portion of the field gets paid with more than 500 entrants (e.g. Multipliers, Leagues, smaller GPPs)

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Quarterbacks

Low-Risk: BUF Josh Allen, PHI Jalen Hurts, BAL Lamar Jackson, ATL Marcus Mariota

High-Risk: DEN Russell Wilson, LAC Justin Herbert, ARI Kyler Murray, JAX Trevor Lawrence, LV Derek Carr, SEA Geno Smith, DET Jared Goff, CLE Jacoby Brissett

In low-risk contests, we're always going to favor dual threat QBs, particularly when they are in high total games (Allen/Jackson) or when they're large favorites (Hurts). Mid-range price QBs like Mariota, Geno Smith and Derek Carr will also be popular this week.

Our favorite game stacks this week are BUF/BAL and LV/DEN, so each of those QBs are our favorite high-risk options at the position as a result. Every other QB in our high-risk pool has the upside to succeed, but there's warts in the profile (DET's Goff has a great matchup, but no Amon-Ra this week, for example).

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Situation statistics sourced from Stathead.com. DVOA data from FootballOutsiders.com. All salaries from contest providers. While we like the player pools selected above, we reserve the right to roster other players should news and trends closer to lock push us in that direction. Pay attention to our stream schedule and social accounts for discussion of those thoughts!