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NFL DFS Picks & Strategy, Week 14 Main Slate

NFL DFS Picks
This is the Sunday Main Slate NFL Daily Plug! Occupy Fantasy’s
Chris Rooney has written up a guide to the slate using the Occupy Model, betting line movements, and news updates. Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes.

NFL DFS Plug is posted for Main Slates, and is fully updated by 10:00pm on Fridays. 

Follow Occupy Fantasy on Twitter for updates through lock. Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes. 

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UPDATES: 
--
CLE QB Joe Flacco is expected to start.
CLE WR Amari Cooper is active and expected to start.
JAX QB Trevor Lawrence is active and expected to start.
SEA QB Geno Smith is a true game time decision, we expect Drew Lock to start.
NO TE Taysom Hill and WR Rashid Shaheed are out.

BETTING ODDS

Biggest Favorites:
San Francisco, -13.5

Baltimore, -8
New Orleans, -6

Highest Game Totals:
BUF@KC 49.5
SEA@SF 46
IND@CIN 44

Highest Implied Team Totals:
San Francisco, 29.75
Kansas City, 25.5
Buffalo, 24
Baltimore, 23.75

Lowest Implied Team Totals:
NY Jets, 15
Jacksonville, 15.25
LA Rams, 15.75

NFL DFS Strategy Guide

NFL DFS Strategy Guide

INJURIES TO WATCH

CLE QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (concussion) cleared the protocol, but has not been named the starter. Monitor.
JAX QB Trevor Lawrence (ankle) is a game-time decision and questionable. Monitor.
NO QB Derek Carr (concussion) is expected to play.
SEA QB Geno Smith (groin) is questionable, monitor.
--
DEN RB Samaje Perine (knee) is questionable after a DNP Friday.
IND RB Jonathan Taylor (thumb) remains out for the Colts. Moss will start again.
JAX RB Travis Etienne Jr. (ribs) is questionable, but expected to play.
KC RB Isiah Pacheco (shoulder) is out, HC Reid said Clyde Edwards-Helaire will start.
NYJ RB Breece Hall (ankle) is questionable, monitor.
SEA RBs Zach Charbonnet (knee) and Kenneth Walker III (oblique) are questionable.
SF RB Elijah Mitchell (knee) is doubtful, expect Jordan Mason to back up CMC.
--
CIN WR Tyler Boyd (ankle) is questionable after hurting himself on Thursday.
CLE WR Amari Cooper (concussion) is questionable; practiced Friday. Monitor.
HOU WR Noah Brown (knee) is questionable, monitor.
LAC WR Josh Palmer (knee) remains out in Week 14.
NO WR Rashid Shaheed (thigh) is questionable after DNPs all week. Monitor.
--
BUF TE Dawson Knox (wrist) listed questionable, but practiced all week and should return.
CAR TE Hayden Hurst (concussion) is out.
HOU TE Dalton Schultz (hamstring) is out.
LAR TE Tyler Higbee (neck) is doubtful, aka out this week.

NFL DFS Picks - Best Plays By Position

Below are our preferred plays for different contest types and roster spots. Plays are listed in order of preference. 

Definitions:
Low-Risk: Contests where roughly half the field doubles their entry fee (e.g. H2Hs, Double Ups, etc.)
Small-Field High-Risk: Contests with exponential payouts and/or where a smaller portion of the field gets paid with less than 500 entrants (e.g. Multipliers, Leagues, smaller GPPs)
Large-Field High-Risk: Contests with exponential payouts and/or where a smaller portion of the field gets paid with more than 500 entrants (e.g. Multipliers, Leagues, smaller GPPs)
---

Quarterbacks

Low-Risk: SF Brock Purdy, BUF Josh Allen, CHI Justin Fields

High-Risk: BAL Lamar Jackson, CIN Jake Browning, KC Patrick Mahomes

In low-risk contests, we're always going to favor dual threat QBs, particularly when they are in high total games, or when they're large favorites. This week, CHI’s Justin Fields is the closest fit to this macro with his rushing upside. SF’s Purdy and BUF’s Allen are the next best options to consider.

Our favorite stacks this week are SF, BUF@KC, BAL, CIN and CHI.

With SF, do not feel obligated to use a bring back in high-risk contests. The double-digit spread suggests SEA players are unlikely to be worth the price of admission.

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Situation statistics sourced from Stathead.com. All salaries from contest providers. While we like the player pools selected above, we reserve the right to roster other players should news and trends closer to lock push us in that direction. Pay attention to our stream schedule and social accounts for discussion of those thoughts!