NFL DFS Super Bowl Picks & Strategy for FanDuel & DraftKings
The Daily Plug is our weekly NFL write-up that highlights the top plays from our Occupy Model. The Plug then provides actionable information for each slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly what types of contests to play -- all depending on the type of player you are. Be sure to read all the way through to the end!
Consider the Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!
Want analysis for every player for the Super Bowl? Check out the Occupy Model.
Julian Edelman, NE WR
It’s a high total Super Bowl (currently 57.5), which means we should look to pass-catchers in our MVP/Captain spot on FanDuel/DraftKings, especially in high-risk contests. According to our Occupy Model, Julian Edelman is the top play by our OF Index metric, topping both QBs and every RB in the game. For any other single game slate, we would ignore prop lines as a way to measure player projections. But in the Super Bowl, betting limits are raised and hundreds of thousands of dollars are wagered on player props.
In this game, Edelman has the highest reception (and receiving yards) prop, and it’s already been bet up since lines opened. He’ll be one of the most popular players on the slate (60 percent-plus projected), making him an ideal target in low-risk contests.
Tom Brady, NE QB & Jared Goff, LAR QB
The highest owned player on the slate will likely be Tom Brady (70 percent or more), and he projects higher in every major statistical category in both our model and player prop evaluations than Jared Goff. He’s one of the higher floor/higher ceiling plays worthy of consideration in any contest type. In low-risk lineups, he’s likely the safest MVP option.
Jared Goff is more high-risk, as he’s shown a low floor both in the playoffs and on the road this season. He ranks a few points below Brady in OF Index in our model, yet the two are nearly the same price (they’re actually identical on FanDuel). Don’t feel the need to squeeze Goff into your low-risk lineup, and you’ll probably want him in fewer than 50 percent of your high-risk lineup allocation.
Brandin Cooks, LAR WR
We’ve mentioned Cooks indoor/outdoor splits many times before, and while they’re not as pronounced as someone like T.Y. Hilton, Cooks still catches slightly more passes and scores touchdowns at a much higher rate when he’s playing inside of a dome. He’s the best bet of the Rams’ WRs to have a big game, as neither our model nor our Props Guide have faith in Robert Woods or Josh Reynolds. Cooks, while not safe at all for low-risk, has the game-breaking ability to be the perfect high-risk captain in a likely shootout.
Todd Gurley, LAR RB
Ask 100 people, you’ll likely get 100 different answers on how the Rams’ backfield workload will be split in the Super Bowl. This uncertainty is highlighted in both projected ownership (Gurley, the league leader in TDs, will barely surpass 50 percent) and opening prop lines (Gurley opened at 14.5 rushing attempts with C.J. Anderson at 10.5 -- these have converged a bit since). What is Gurley’s floor? We saw it last week with 4 carries. BUT -- and this is a huge but -- if he’s healthy and regains his pre-injury workload, no one has higher upside on the slate. That’s what we want in high-risk contests -- suppressed ownership on a crazy high upside guy.
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