NFL DFS Picks & Strategy, Week 2 Main Slate
This is the Sunday Main Slate NFL Daily Plug! Occupy Fantasy’s Chris Rooney has written up a guide to the slate using the Occupy Model, betting line movements, and news updates. Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes.
NFL DFS Plug is posted for Main Slates, and is fully updated by 8:00pm on Fridays.
Follow Occupy Fantasy on Twitter for updates through lock.
Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes. For NFL Inactives, visit this link to the NFL.com page - updates roughly 90 minutes before kickoff for each game.
Consider the Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, -9.5
Kansas City Chiefs, -8.5
Tennessee Titans, -7.5
Pittsburgh Steelers, -7.5
San Francisco, -7
Highest Game Totals:
Highest Implied Team Totals:
Dallas Cowboys, 29.25
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 28.75
Baltimore Ravens, 28.5
Kansas City Chiefs, 28
Green Bay Packers, 27.75
Lowest Implied Team Totals:
Denver Broncos, 16.5
New York Jets, 17.25
Miami Dolphins, 17.5
Jacksonville Jaguars, 18.25
Carolina Panthers, 19.25
GAMES TO STACK
Each week, we’ll point out three games to stack based on the Occupy Model, betting line information such as game totals, implied team totals, line movements, and more.
The Ravens fly south to take on the Texans in Week 2, and they’re flying high after their 38-6 drubbing of the Browns in Week 1. After Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs threw the ball all over the yard against these Texans in Week 1, expect big things from Baltimore’s aerial assault - Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin, and Mark Andrews all have top 10 matchups by Football Outsiders’ DVOA this week, and they led Baltimore in routes run per QB dropback last time out. Expect Willie Snead to be involved to a lesser degree, but still be viable in tournaments. Mark Ingram and JK Dobbins dominated the opportunities at RB for Baltimore in the first half, so expect them to be the best bets in the backfield with the Ravens. Might want to consider avoiding the RBs here, however - the Texans are the 3rd best rushing defense in the NFL by DVOA at this early juncture.
For Houston, the rushing matchup is surprisingly strong. David Johnson gets to tote the rock behind the 5th best run blocking line in the NFL through one week of action, and Baltimore did allow 138 yards on just 27 carries last time out. DeShaun Watson loves Will Fuller, which shouldn’t come as a surprise. His 10 targets in Week 1 doubled the highest total for any other Texan WR against the Chiefs. Fuller’s matchup with Marcus Peters will be a fun one to watch, and it’s one we think he can win. If Houston is playing from behind yet again in Week 2, Fuller is the best bet to compile stats on pure volume. Randall Cobb and Jordan Akins are the other players who ran a high percentage of routes on Watson’s dropbacks, so consider them in your game stacks if building multiple lineups.
The good chalk stack of the week? Falcons and Cowboys down at Jerry World. This game has the highest total on the slate at 54 points, and features a Falcons offense that box score scouts will be high on after their shootout with Seattle last weekend.
Atlanta’s pass defense was torched by Russell Wilson in Week 1, so it should be no surprise that each of Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb have strong projected matchups. Ezekiel Elliott should feast, and even new TE1 Dalton Schultz warrants at least some consideration - the Falcons did concede a TD to SEA TE Greg Olsen last week, and rank 26th by DVOA against the position now as a result.
For the Falcons, each of Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and even Russell Gage saw 12 targets, good for ~22% share of Ryan’s targets in their high volume passing attack. Ridley and Jones run more downfield routes, while Gage looks to be more of a slot specialist based on the raw air yard totals through one week. Todd Gurley’s usage was impressive, and he’s clearly the top dog on his new squad - his matchup here is difficult, as the Cowboys rank 10th by DVOA through one week of action. Don’t sleep on Hayden Hurst at TE, either - he ran a route on 80% of Ryan’s dropbacks.
Last but certainly not least, one of our favorite game stacks of the week:
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Situation statistics sourced from Stathead.com. DVOA data from FootballOutsiders.com. Air yards data pulled from AirYards.com. All salaries from contest providers. While we like the player pool selected above, we reserve the right to roster other players should news and trends closer to lock push us in that direction. Pay attention to our stream schedule for discussion of those thoughts!