NFL DFS Picks & Strategy, Week 12 Main Slate
This is the Sunday Main Slate NFL Daily Plug! Occupy Fantasy’s Chris Rooney has written up a guide to the slate using the Occupy Model, betting line movements, and news updates. Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes.
The NFL DFS Plug is posted for Main Slates, and is fully updated by 8:00pm on Fridays.
Follow Occupy Fantasy on Twitter for updates through lock.
Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes. For NFL Inactives, visit this link to the NFL.com page - updates roughly 90 minutes before kickoff for each game.
Consider the Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!
Cleveland Browns, -7
Miami Dolphins, -6.5
Los Angeles Rams, -6.5
New Orleans Saints, -6
New York Giants, -5.5
Buffalo Bills, -5.5
Highest Game Totals:
Highest Implied Team Totals:
Kansas City Chiefs, 29.5
Buffalo Bills, 28.5
Las Vegas Raiders, 28.25
Cleveland Browns, 28
Indianapolis Colts, 27
Minnesota Vikings, 26.5
Lowest Implied Team Totals:
New York Jets, 18.25
Denver Broncos, 18.5
San Francisco 49ers, 18.75
Cincinnati Bengals, 19
Jacksonville Jaguars, 21
GAMES TO STACK
Each week, we’ll point out the games to stack based on the Occupy Model, betting line information such as game totals, implied team totals, line movements, and more.
Teddy Bridgewater is ready to return for the Panthers, which is good news! This game’s total sits at 50.5 points, suggesting Bridgewater and Kirk Cousins are each capable of providing plenty of firepower for DFS tournament lineups.
DJ Moore has a 47% share of Carolina’s air yards in their last 3 games. He’s seen less targets than each of Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel in that time frame, but this suggests that he has higher value opportunities when the ball is thrown his way.
All three WRs have target shares over 20%, so they are all viable in tournaments. Should note - Anderson is the only one of the 3 without a touchdown to his name in recent weeks.
Mike Davis’ stranglehold on the RB touches for the Panthers has taken a hit - Rodney Smith has seen about 20% of the carries for the Panthers in the last couple of weeks. Davis should be considered less of a priority as a result.
For the Vikings, Dalvin Cook is the best raw play at RB on the entire slate. The Panthers are 22nd by DVOA defending the run in 2020. Cook obviously costs a ton salary cap wise for a reason - that reason is he projects for a slate-high 34.4 weighted opportunities to touch the football in the Occupy RB Model. Use him liberally inside and outside of stacks as a result.
At WR, Adam Thielen will be OUT on Sunday. He’s turned up on the COVID-19 restricted list. This will only bolster the strength of Justin Jefferson come Sunday. Jefferson’s 336 air yards in the last 3 weeks is top 10 in the NFL - and represents 47% of Minnesota’s team total.
We will have an opportunity to roster a cheap Minnesota WR in these game stacks. The problem? Good luck sussing out which one to use.
Chad Beebe and Olabisi Johnson have seen 12 and 11 targets total for the entire season. Beebe has run more routes overall, but most of them have come in the slot, suggesting he has rotated in more on 3 WR sets for the Vikings.
It’s plausible that 2nd year man Bisi Johnson is the direct backup for one of Thielen/Jefferson, and therefore stands to benefit the most from Thielen’s absence.
Kyle Rudolph will have some tournament appeal at TE, as well - Irv Smith Jr. has been ruled out with a groin injury.
The Bills’ 29 point implied team total is one of the highest of the weekend. Josh Allen will be without one of his top WRs in John Brown, so that clears the path for Gabriel Davis to play a nearly every down role as a cheap WR.
The usual suspects - Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley - will have plenty of appeal. Diggs leads the way without question, thanks to his 36% share of Allen’s air yards, and astronomical 31% target share. Beasley’s 17% share of team targets in recent weeks should rise without Brown in the fold, too.
Both Zack Moss and Devin Singletary play a ton for the Bills. Moss is the one to prioritize in tournaments for the touchdown upside, though. Not only has he seen more total touches in recent weeks, he also has 8 red zone carries in Buffalo’s last 3 games, with 3 rushing TDs to show for it. Singletary has seen just 2 red zone carries and 1 target - for a grand total of -1 yards. He’s the clear second fiddle now in this backfield.
TEs don’t really factor into the mix for the Bills too much. Second year man Dawson Knox has played the most out of any other TEs for Buffalo in recent weeks - he’s a touchdown dependent, cheap play at best.
The Chargers simply have to see their future as bright with Justin Herbert at the helm. Only Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins rank ahead of him in completion percentage over expectation (NextGenStats), and he has a top 8 QB rating, ranked just one slot ahead of Buffalo’s Allen, in fact.
Keenan Allen will continue to be the best play on the Chargers if his 31% target share holds up. Allen runs a route on virtually all of Herbert’s dropbacks. Mike Williams is the second best WR to play - despite seeing less targets than each of Allen and Hunter Henry, Williams leads the Chargers in air yards in the last 3 weeks.
Hunter Henry’s 17% target share shows us he has one of the highest floors at the TE position - he’s seen 6+ targets in each of the last 3 weeks for LA.
Before moving on, a word on Jalen Guyton. This man has the emptiest role in the NFL. Despite running the second most routes of all Charger pass catchers, Guyton has just 9 targets over the last 3 weeks. If you like playing #bad WRs in your tournament lineups? Guyton is your guy.
We’ll have to see what news comes over the weekend at RB for the Chargers. Austin Ekeler could return from IR, so if that materializes, he’ll be the priority. Kalen Ballage is questionable to play with an ankle/calf injury. Joshua Kelley could end up the healthiest (and only active one) of the bunch come Sunday morning.
There are so many juicy high total games on deck this Sunday. This last one just might be our favorite of the bunch to stack:
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Situation statistics sourced from Stathead.com. DVOA data from FootballOutsiders.com. Air Yards data cited from AirYards.com. All salaries from contest providers. While we like the player pool selected above, we reserve the right to roster other players should news and trends closer to lock push us in that direction. Pay attention to our stream schedule for discussion of those thoughts!