NFL DFS Picks & Strategy, Divisional Round
This is the Divisional Round NFL Daily Plug! Our staff has written up a guide to the slate using the Occupy Model, betting line movements, and news updates. Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes.
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UPDATES:
BETTING ODDS
Biggest Favorites:
Kansas City Chiefs, -9.5
Philadelphia Eagles, -8
Highest Totals:
JAX@KC, 53.5
CIN@BUF, 48.5
NYG@PHI, 48.5
Highest Team Totals:
Kansas City Chiefs, 30.5
Philadelphia Eagles, 28.25
Buffalo Bills, 27.25
Lowest Team Totals:
New York Giants, 20.25
Cincinnati Bengals, 21.25
Dallas Cowboys, 21.5
NFL DFS Strategy Guide
INJURIES TO WATCH
Mecole Hardman: Out for KC (pelvis), leaves JuJu Smith-Schuster, MVS and Toney/Watson as WRs for this week.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Out for KC (ankle), leaves Pacheco & McKinnon as KC RBs.
Bengals OL: starting LT Jonah Williams and RT Alex Cappa are out against Buffalo.
Cowboys OL: starting LT Jason Peters is out against San Francisco.
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Jamal Agnew: JAX’s WR4 is questionable with a shoulder injury.
Isaiah McKenzie: should return this week after getting full practices in every day.
NFL DFS Picks - Best Plays By Position
Below are our preferred plays for different contest types and roster spots. Plays are listed in order of preference.
Definitions:
Low-Risk: Contests where roughly half the field doubles their entry fee (e.g. H2Hs, Double Ups, etc.)
Small-Field High-Risk: Contests with exponential payouts and/or where a smaller portion of the field gets paid with less than 500 entrants (e.g. Multipliers, Leagues, smaller GPPs)
Large-Field High-Risk: Contests with exponential payouts and/or where a smaller portion of the field gets paid with more than 500 entrants (e.g. Multipliers, Leagues, smaller GPPs)
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Slate Breakdown Video
Quarterbacks
Low-Risk: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen
High-Risk: Joe Burrow, Daniel Jones, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, Trevor Lawrence
In low-risk contests, we’re always going to favor dual threat QBs, particularly when they are in high total games or when they’re large favorites (Jalen Hurts meets both criteria this week). In high-risk, we like stacking offenses with more passing upside than their peers.
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Situation statistics sourced from Stathead.com. DVOA data from FootballOutsiders.com. All salaries from contest providers. While we like the player pools selected above, we reserve the right to roster other players should news and trends closer to lock push us in that direction. Pay attention to our stream schedule and social accounts for discussion of those thoughts!