NFL DFS Picks & Strategy, Week 14 Main Slate
Note: the Main Slate Plug is typically updated for the upcoming week by 8:00pm eastern on Fridays.
The Daily Plug is our weekly NFL DFS picks write-up that highlights the top plays from our Occupy Model. The Plug then provides actionable information for each slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly what types of contests to play -- all depending on the type of player you are.
Occupy Fantasy’s Chris Rooney has written up a guide to the slate using the Occupy Model, betting line movements, and news updates. Be sure to read all the way through to the end!
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Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes. For NFL Inactives, visit this link to the NFL.com page - updates roughly 90 minutes before kickoff for each game.
Consider the Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!
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Highest Implied Team Totals:
Lowest Implied Team Totals:
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GAMES TO STACK
Each week, we’ll point out three games to stack based on the Occupy Model, betting line information such as game totals, implied team totals, line movements, and more.
PIT@ARI, IND@TB, MIA@NYJ
For those who can’t believe this section doesn’t feature KC@NE, or CAR@ATL - understand we have a heavily researched and back tested Model that we trust, and that also sent our CEO to the WFFC live final presented by FanDuel next weekend!
While there are other games to stack, these are the three the Occupy Model leads us to for Week 14.
Devlin Hodges and the Steelers travel to Arizona, where they look to keep their AFC playoff hopes alive against the Cardinals. Arizona has been a mouth-watering opponent to see on the calendar for offenses this season - teams average 307.5 passing yards per game, and 118.8 rushing yards per game against them. So while this game has a low 43 point total, the modest salaries on the Pittsburgh side and Arizona’s inept defensive performance puts it on our radar.
James Washington, Diontae Johnson (on our underperforming list) and Vance McDonald are the best pass catching options to pair with Hodges, while rookie Benny Snell has seen 16+ carries (but only 1 target per game) in each of the last two weeks. On the Arizona side, Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk offer the most upside, as Pittsburgh is just 32nd by DVOA defending slot WRs.
It’s now 4 straight weeks of 6+ targets and no touchdowns for Mike Evans of the Buccaneers. He’s atop our underperforming WRs list for that reason this week. Given how friendly the Tampa Bay offense is to high scoring fantasy purposes, we always love stacking their games. The Colts are decimated by injury, with Eric Ebron, TY Hilton and Chester Rogers all out. This means Jacoby Brissett will have a much tighter allocation of passes to Zach Pascal (underperforming WR), Jack Doyle, and freshly healthy Parris Campbell. Marlon Mack returns to action in Week 14, but as we’ve told you all season, running on the Bucs is no easy feat. In addition to Evans, Chris Godwin remains a top option in that offense, and is the “leverage” play this week at likely lower ownership.
If it seems like a Dolphins game stack ends up being one of the best lineups over and over again season - it’s because its true! This week, the Jets get another crack at Miami, which means Sam Darnold, Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder are all strong passing game options. With Le’Veon Bell, Demaryius Thomas and Ryan Griffin all questionable, we will have to monitor statuses up until lock on the New York side. Miami’s pass game offense flows through DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki in recent weeks - they have 67 of the 154 total targets since Week 10 combined. At RB, Patrick Laird steps into the anticipated starter’s role in the backfield with Ballage on IR - he’s 5th in our Model on DraftKings (15th FanDuel) with a 24.5 weighted opportunity score.
BEST PLAYS BY POSITION
Lamar Jackson, Christian McCaffrey, and Michael Thomas remain playable in all formats. Ok? More compelling spots for analysis below:
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Situation statistics sourced from Pro-Football-Reference.com’s Play Index Finder. DVOA data from FootballOutsiders.com. Air yards data pulled from AirYards.com. All salaries from contest providers. While we like the player pool selected above, we reserve the right to roster other players should news and trends closer to lock push us in that direction. Pay attention to our stream schedule for discussion of those thoughts!