NFL DFS Picks & Strategy, Week 6 Main Slate
This is the Sunday Main Slate NFL Daily Plug! Occupy Fantasy’s Chris Rooney has written up a guide to the slate using the Occupy Model, betting line movements, and news updates. Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes.
The NFL DFS Plug is posted for Main Slates, and is fully updated by 8:00pm on Fridays.
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Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes. For NFL Inactives, visit this link to the NFL.com page - updates roughly 90 minutes before kickoff for each game.
Consider the Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!
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BETTING ODDS
Biggest Favorites:
New England Patriots, -10
Miami Dolphins, -9.5
Indianapolis Colts, -8
Baltimore Ravens, -7.5
Minnesota Vikings, -4.5
Highest Game Totals:
GB@TB, 56.5
DET@JAX, 54
ATL@MIN, 54
HOU@TEN, 52.5
CLE@PIT, 51
Highest Implied Team Totals:
Minnesota Vikings, 29.25
Green Bay Packers, 28.75
Detroit Lions, 28.5
Miami Dolphins, 28.25
Tennessee Titans, 28
Lowest Implied Team Totals:
Denver Broncos, 17.75
New York Jets, 18.75
Cincinnati Bengals, 19.5
WAS Football Team, 19.75
Philadelphia Eagles, 20.25
GAMES TO STACK
Each week, we’ll point out three games to stack based on the Occupy Model, betting line information such as game totals, implied team totals, line movements, and more.
GB@TB
The Packers head to Florida to take on Tom Brady’s Bucs. It’s just the third time Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady have ever laced it up against each other’s teams, so this one ought to have lots of eyeballs on it.
Rodgers benefits from GB’s top ranked pass blocking offensive line, which he’s going to need in order to connect with his favorite weapon, Davante Adams. We also have Marquez Valdes-Scantling lined up in a juicy spot - the Bucs are 31st by Football Outsiders’ DVOA defending WR2s in 2020. Robert Tonyan is probably due to see a little less opportunity with this offense back at full strength - we only have him projected for 3 targets.
Aaron Jones has the highest weighted opportunity score (39.5) in the red zone this season (14 rushes, 9 targets). While it's a tough matchup with a Bucs’ defense that allows just 58 rushing yards per game thus far, Jones’ workload is safe enough to warrant exposure in high-risk lineups.
Tom Brady has yet to really have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at full strength at the same time this season; this week, Godwin’s return to the lineup should boost the GOAT’s performance. Green Bay’s biggest weakness thus far has been defending the traditional WR2 position (32nd by DVOA), so whoever lines up there (the “Z” spot) has a tasty opportunity. Scotty Miller projects to be the one to benefit from that - he’s not on the final injury report for the game.
Will either of Rob Gronkowski or Cameron Brate find their way into the optimal TB stack? It’s possible - Brate in particular is targeted on a high percentage of his routes (38.9%), and has played more with OJ Howard out for the year - 46% of snaps and 6 targets were both season highs for him in Week 5.
ATL@MIN
In Minnesota, neither of the starting TEs are targeted fairly often. Irv Smith and Kyle Rudolph have flip-flopped in routes run all year, but Irv appears to have stepped slightly ahead in Week 5 (31 routes run vs 24 for Rudolph).
When Kirk Cousins takes the opening snap for this Vikings offense on Sunday, he’ll have the highest implied team total in betting markets (29.25 points) on his side. He’ll also have one of the most popular Week 6 RBs alongside him in Alexander Mattison.
Adam Thielen’s 0.82 WOPR ranking over the last 3 weeks is the highest in the entire NFL; even though we can’t guarantee a high volume of pass attempts in general with the Vikings, we’re pretty certain that nearly all of the high value targets are going to Thielen and Justin Jefferson exclusively based on usage. That’s perfect for game stacks, since we only have a few players to work into lineups in DFS.
On the Falcons side, the post Dan Quinn era begins with the WRs returning to full strength. Julio Jones is expected to start, as he was removed from the injury report on Friday. He’ll play second fiddle to the new alpha, Calvin Ridley if he’s able to play full snaps.
Matt Ryan has failed to eclipse 300 yards passing in 4 straight weeks, and has just 1 passing touchdown in his last 3 games. Expect regression to be on his side, and therefore hit Todd Gurley, who has scored 4 touchdowns in that three game stretch. That said, Gurley has the red zone role on lockdown for these Falcons - he has 22 of the 26 total RB carries in that part of the field.
Our third and final game stack we love this week might just be the best one of the bunch:
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Situation statistics sourced from Stathead.com. DVOA data from FootballOutsiders.com. Air Yards data cited from AirYards.com. All salaries from contest providers. While we like the player pool selected above, we reserve the right to roster other players should news and trends closer to lock push us in that direction. Pay attention to our stream schedule for discussion of those thoughts!