NFL DFS Picks & Strategy, Week 7 Main Slate
The Daily Plug is our weekly NFL DFS picks write-up that highlights the top plays from our Occupy Model. The Plug then provides actionable information for each slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly what types of contests to play -- all depending on the type of player you are.
Occupy Fantasy’s Chris Rooney has written up a guide to the slate using the Occupy Model, betting line movements, and news updates. Be sure to read all the way through to the end!
Follow Chris on Twitter @cdr02989 for updates through lock.
Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes. For NFL Inactives, visit this link to the NFL.com page - updates roughly 90 minutes before kickoff for each game.
Consider the Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!
Want analysis for every player in Week 7? Check out the Occupy Model. Want help building lineups? Our partner, DFS Magic, is offering an optimizer FREE for all Occupy members through the end of October.
BETTING ODDS
Biggest Favorites:
Bills, -17.5
49ers, -10.5
Packers, -4.5
Jaguars, -4.5
Highest Game Totals:
LAR@ATL, 54
ARI@NYG, 50.5
PHI@DAL, 49.5 (Yahoo! Only)
BAL@SEA, 48.5
Highest Implied Team Totals:
Bills, 29.5
Rams, 28.5
Giants, 26.75
Cowboys, 26 (Yahoo! Only)
Packers, 26
Falcons, 25.5
Seahawks, 25.5
Lowest Team Totals:
Dolphins, 12
Redskins, 14.75
Saints, 16.25
Chargers, 19.5
Bengals, 19.75
Betting odds and percentage information from SportsInteraction. Use our link to get a 100% bonus up to $200!
GAMES TO STACK
Each week, we’ll point out three games to stack based on the Occupy Model, betting line information such as game totals, implied team totals, line movements, and more.
LAR@ATL, ARI@NYG, MIN@DET
With the highest game total on the slate at 54 points, the Rams and Falcons game is going to be a popular one to stack. The Falcons are third in average yards per pass attempt (Y/A) allowed to opponents, at 8.47 Y/A on the season. Jared Goff is set up nicely to bounce back from his 78 yard performance last week. Expect Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Brandin Cooks to all be viable, as the Falcons rank 30th or worse by DVOA against all WR positions per Football Outsiders. On the other side, Matt Ryan has thrown for over 300 yards every single week this year. The Rams themselves are just 20th by DVOA against the pass, which means Ryan should have success with his usual weapons - Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper. Devonta Freeman is back to workhorse status for the Falcons, while Todd Gurley II is expected to be back in general in Week 7.
Another week, another Cardinals stack! Arizona heads to the Meadowlands to take on the Giants, who are getting Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram back in time for this matchup. Daniel Jones is the top ranked QB in our Model for Week 7, while Kyler Murray is 4th. With the second highest game total on the slate (50.5 points), this spot makes sense. David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Golden Tate all make sense as higher end options to add into your game stack pool here.
While the Ravens/Seahawks and Colts/Texans games offer plenty of upside, the Vikings and Lions stand out to us as an interesting option to round out game stacks in Week 7.
If our rule of thumb is to roster players who can eclipse a 25 fantasy point total in our lineups (and it should be in tournaments), then this matchup is full of them. Kirk Cousins has had 27 or more pass attempts in 4 out of 6 games, averages 8.9 Y/A, and has elite weapons in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs to utilize. While this remains one of the run heaviest offenses in the NFL, it’s not as bad for passing as we might perceive. Dalvin Cook, however, is obviously a great option in this spot regardless. Matthew Stafford is the value play at QB in this game, while Kerryon Johnson is the 5th best RB on DraftKings (6th on FanDuel) for us in Week 7. Kenny Golladay projects for 9.8 targets for us in the Occupy Model, while Marvin Jones Jr sticks out as a nice buy-low candidate after last week’s dud performance.
BEST PLAYS BY POSITION
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Situation statistics sourced from Pro-Football-Reference.com’s Play Index Finder. DVOA data from FootballOutsiders.com. Air yards data pulled from AirYards.com. All salaries from contest providers. While we like the player pool selected above, we reserve the right to roster other players should news and trends closer to lock push us in that direction. Pay attention to our stream schedule for discussion of those thoughts!