NFL DFS Picks & Strategy, Week 7 Main Slate
This is the Sunday Main Slate NFL Daily Plug! Occupy Fantasy’s Chris Rooney has written up a guide to the slate using the Occupy Model, betting line movements, and news updates. Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes.
The NFL DFS Plug is posted for Main Slates, and is fully updated by 8:00pm on Fridays.
Follow Occupy Fantasy on Twitter for updates through lock.
Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes. For NFL Inactives, visit this link to the NFL.com page - updates roughly 90 minutes before kickoff for each game.
Consider the Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!
Buffalo Bills, -11.5
Kansas City Chiefs, -9
New Orleans Saints, -8
Los Angeles Chargers, -7.5
Green Bay Packers, -3.5
Highest Game Totals:
Highest Implied Team Totals:
Green Bay Packers, 30
New Orleans Saints, 29.75
Seattle Seahawks, 29.5
Buffalo Bills, 28.5
Atlanta Falcons, 28.5
Lowest Implied Team Totals:
New York Jets, 17
Denver Broncos, 18.25
Jacksonville Jaguars, 20.5
San Francisco 49ers, 21.5
Carolina Panthers, 21.75
GAMES TO STACK
Each week, we’ll point out three games to stack based on the Occupy Model, betting line information such as game totals, implied team totals, line movements, and more.
The Packers failed us miserably last Sunday. As DFS players, however, we need to have short memories and only look ahead. On the other side, the Texans have been involved in several attractive game stack environments lately - this week should prove no different.
Aaron Rodgers will look to Davante Adams and underperforming WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling the most to get the offense rolling through the air. Bob Tonyan (that’s TUN-yan, folks) isn’t too far behind, either. Since Green Bay has the highest implied team total on the slate, we should be very interested in the passing game weapons. Each has a top 10 matchup by DVOA this week.
Friday brought some uncomfortable news, as Aaron Jones was a late addition to the injury report with a “mild” calf strain. He’s considered a true game time decision. Behind him, Jamaal Williams has earned the most playing time, with rookie AJ Dillon a distant third. We can’t reliably forecast what Matt LaFleur will do without Jones on Sunday - remember this is the same man who split touches between Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis in Tennessee.
If Jones is active, we love GB stacks that include him at RB. If he’s out, our preference would be Jamaal Williams in his place, however double-stacking the WRs might be the preferential path. Stay tuned.
UPDATE: Jones has been ruled OUT. Jamaal Williams is the primary RB for GB and now the best overall value on the slate.
Deshaun Watson will look to carve up GB’s 25th ranked DVOA pass defense, and he has the weapons to make it happen. Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks have rounded into form, each reaching for their ceiling outcomes in recent weeks. It looks like Darren Fells will have another opportunity to be the leader at the TE position, as Jordan Akins is still dealing with a concussion.
David Johnson is still getting the vast majority of playing time even with Duke Johnson back in action, so don't ignore him either. GB’s 25th ranked rush defense is an exploitable weakness, as well. We project 24.5 weighted opportunities for him this week in our Model.
To the powers that be at FanDuel and DraftKings - thank you, thank you, thank you! The 55.5 point total game remains on the main slate this week, despite being flexed into the primetime slot Sunday evening. For the first time in a good long while, our main slate sweat will extend deep into the night.
While Russell Wilson is getting a lot of love because hEs NeVeR gOtTeN aN mVp vOtE bEfOrE (anyone else tired of this narrative yet?), Kyler Murray has been playing at an elite level as well.
The Seahawks offense seems to flow through DK Metcalf - he has a 50% share of Wilson’s air yards in their last 3 games. Tyler Lockett’s work has dipped as a result, but he’s still good for the second most targets and air yards on the roster. Lockett’s a more intriguing DraftKings play due to PPR upside. Greg Olsen’s 14 targets in Seattle’s last 3 weeks is double that of any other option behind him. When they dial up the running game, expect Chris Carson to get virtually all the work.
Arizona is looking to flip the script in the NFC West this week. The undefeated Seahawks are coming into their house as a 3 point favorite. A win by the Cardinals is going to have all the talking heads buzzing about Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and company as a result. Can they pull off a win?
Kyler Murray has actually been far more involved in the running game than anyone anticipated in 2020, which has been the main reason Kenyan Drake has had less chances to score on the ground. He’s facing a Seattle defense that is stout against the run, but very leaky against the pass. That spells trouble for a Seattle secondary that has to try and slow down DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald as a result. The TEs on the Cardinals have been an absolute disaster for fantasy players thus far, so probably aren’t worth rostering this week (guaranteed Daniels TD now).
The late game hammer is really attractive. But the game we like even more?
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Situation statistics sourced from Stathead.com. DVOA data from FootballOutsiders.com. Air Yards data cited from AirYards.com. All salaries from contest providers. While we like the player pool selected above, we reserve the right to roster other players should news and trends closer to lock push us in that direction. Pay attention to our stream schedule for discussion of those thoughts!