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eric cole chris gotterup pga dfs picks lineup advice draftkings fanduel 2024 cognizant classic
Eric Cole

PGA DFS Picks: The PGA Daily Plug for the 2024 Cognizant Classic

The PGA Daily Plug highlights the top PGA DFS picks for the 2024 Cognizant Classic contests on FanDuel & DraftKings, then provides strategies on how to build lineups for all contest types.

The PGA DFS picks and advice below is provided by Niromada, a staple in the Occupy PGA Discord channel and perennial top 75 PGA DFS player according to RotoGrinders rankings. Join our Discord channel by becoming a YouTube subscriber.

Note: Niromada will provide picks from his personal player pool -- and they may differ from the rankings in our Occupy Model -- but Niromada is tuned into the golf scene and can provide context that isn't taken into account by the model. We must also remember that the model is built exclusively for high-risk contests, so Niromada can also help us decipher the best plays for low-risk contests the model may overlook. 

Also be sure to check out:

UPDATES:

  • Updates will be made here in blue after the Plug is posted Wednesday morning. 
  • The Wednesday Update
    • Pinnacle Steam Moves
      • Here is the summary of the line moves at Pinnacle Sports so far. The percentage next to the name means the percent that the odds have gotten smaller since the time that Pinnacle opened their market on Monday evening US time until now. Where now is roughly midday in the US on Wednesday.
      • It should be noted that to streamline the data and make more sense of these moves, I am no longer including someone in this list if their odds to win were higher than 200-1 before the line move.
      • Andrew Novak 26%
        Taylor Montgomery 16%
        Rasmus Hojgaard 14%
        Denny McCarthy 14%
        Shane Lowry 12%
        Vincent Norrman 12%
        C.T. Pan 12%
        Maverick McNealy 10%
        Brandon Wu 9%
        Lee Hodges 8%
        Sepp Straka 8%
        J.T. Poston 8%
        Keith Mitchell 8%
        Sungjae Im 7%
        Christiaan Bezuidenhout 6%
        Chris Kirk 6%
        Matt Fitzpatrick 5%
        Rickie Fowler 5%
        Chesson Hadley 5%
        Eric Cole 5%
        Tom Kim 5%
        Adam Svensson 4%
        Seonghyeon Kim 3%
        Sam Ryder 2%
        Rory McIlroy 2%
        Corey Conners 2%
        Chris Gotterup 2%
        Tom Hoge 2%
        Byeong Hun An 1%
        Brendon Todd 1%
    • Pinnacle Misprice List
      • What if we let the Pinnacle Odds to Win market price the field on DK this week instead of the DK Pricing Algorithm? The below chart reflects the biggest values according to Pinnacle's current odds. For example, in the DK price rankings, Byeong Hun An is the 10th most expensive golfer in the field, but he has the 5th lowest odds at Pinnacle, so there is a 50% value on Ben An according to Pinnacle.
      • Byeong Hun An 50%
        Eric Cole 50%
        Andrew Novak 44%
        Doug Ghim 38%
        Parker Coody 37%
        Adam Svensson 36%
        Sepp Straka 26%
        Davis Thompson 24%
        Greyson Sigg 24%
        Christiaan Bezuidenhout 23%
        Akshay Bhatia 23%
        Corey Conners 21%
        Jacob Bridgeman 21%
        Vincent Norrman 19%
        Matthew NeSmith 19%
        Ben Silverman 18%
        Lee Hodges 18%
        Erik Van Rooyen 18%
        Maverick McNealy 18%
        Nate Lashley 17%
        Brandon Wu 17%
        Sam Ryder 17%
        Shane Lowry 17%
    • Weather forecast: No big changes here. The best conditions for the first two days are Thursday morning, but Friday afternoon should also be a bit windier than Friday morning. And Thursday afternoon will be a bit windier than Thursday morning. Feels like a wash to me with no big advantage. Given the location and the forecast, I would do some stacking both ways if you are entering multiple lineups in case a true advantage develops. 
    • McIlroy will be pushing 40%+ in large field and 60%+ in small field contests. Simialr to Finau last week, whatever you decide to do about that, make it a conscious decision. I don't think Rory is an absolute smash, so I will probably play him in low risk and play him some in small field high risk while being under the field on him in large field high risk contests.
    • Currently there are NINE trifecta plays: Rasmus Hojgaard, Brandon Wu, Sepp Straka, Sungjae Im, Matt Fitzpatrick, Chesson Hadley, Eric Cole, Adam Svensson and Rory McIlroy. Interesting to see our two contrarian pay up options of Im and Fitzpatrick get the trifecta label.
    • I Will try and get any final line moves posted in the Discord channel before lock. Good Luck this week!

Notable Betting Odds:

Biggest Favorites:
Rory McIlroy (+750)
Russell Henley (+2000)
Cameron Young (+2000)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200)
JT Poston (+2200)
Tom Kim (+2200)
Eric Cole (+2500)
Byeong-Hun An (+2800)
Sung-Jae Im (+2800)
Corey Conners (+3300)
Shane Lowry (+3300)
Denny McCarthy (+3300)
Min Woo Lee (+3300)
Keith Mitchell (+3300)
Daniel Berger (+4000)
Stephan Jaeger (+4000)
Chris Kirk (+4000)
Matthieu Pavon (+4000)
Sepp Straka (+4000)
Adam Svensson (+4000)

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Weather:

Wind Forecast

Relatively calm considering the location (except for Friday), but we need to keep an eye on this one as it currently looks like the Thursday morning starters might have a bit of an advantage in Classic contests.

Course Info:

Course: Champions Course PGA National (Palm Beach Gardens, FL)
Length: 7,100+
Par: Par 71
Grass Type: Fairways: Bermuda | Rough: Bermuda | Greens: Bermuda
Likely winning score: -9 to -14

Course attributes: This is a technical test with plenty of water hazards and bunkers| Routinely one of the tougher non-major events| We should expect plenty of tucked pin locations | Bermuda greens + deeper rough around the greens | “Bear Trap” (holes 15-17) is annually the toughest 3 hole stretch on Tour.

Player attributes we want: Total ball striking machines| Positive strokes gained off the tee and on approach | Positive putting history on Bermuda greens | The ability to thrive on tough courses | Previous success at breezy, coastal venues (or Open Championships) is a big bonus this week.

Key Stats:

PGA has a lot of data available for you to consider. This week, the following stats are important. This changes week to week based on course characteristics in PGA DFS. 

Ball Striking
Birdies Gained
Approach, 125-200 Yards
Par 3 Performance
Greens in Regulation
Bogeys Avoided
Putting Variance* - custom Occupy Fantasy analysis built into the Occupy Model

Weekly Transparency:

We'll use this section to track my top plays throughout the season. The performance of previous picks are below:

The plus/minus number is the amount above or below the player scored when compared to their pre-tournament expected fantasy points based on their DK salary number.  Note that these totals will always be wonky / overly negative when the course plays difficult due to the lack of fantasy scoring for birdies etc. – and when the course plays extremely easy, the +/- scores will always be overly positive.  This all evens itself out over a long timeframe.

Taylor Pendrith (-50)
Michael Kim (-30)
Chris Gotterup (WD)* (Still just eviscerated the bankroll with his pre-round 2 WD)
Sam Stevens (-21)
Kevin Dougherty (+47)
Ryan Fox (-46)

Others I liked more than the field: Valimaki (+79), Hubbard (+7), Rai (+13), Xiong (-16) and Campos (+49).

2024 Running Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: ++432 fantasy points over expected. -102 at The Mexico Open. 🔥

2024 Running Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +589 fantasy points over expected. +132 at The Mexico Open. 🔥

Historical Plug performance:

Final 2023 Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +301 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2023 Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +808 fantasy points over expected. 🔥

Final 2022 Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +359 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2022 Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like:  +342 fantasy points over expected. 🔥

Final 2021 Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeup: +564 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2021 Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +167 fantasy points over expected. 🔥

Final 2020 Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +621 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2020 Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +356 fantasy points over expected. 🔥

PGA DFS Picks - Top Golfers:

These are the top golfers in my player pool for the 2024 Cognizant Classic:

Want to read the rest?

The full PGA DFS Daily Plug is available for members only. Get Niromada's top plays and lineup strategies to give you actionable PGA daily fantasy advice.

Want to read a full PGA DFS Daily Plug before you become a member? Check out the Plug from the Memorial Tournament here.

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