PGA DFS Picks: The PGA Daily Plug for the 3M Open
The PGA Daily Plug highlights the top PGA DFS picks for the Open contests on FanDuel & DraftKings, then provides strategies on how to build lineups for all contest types.
The PGA DFS picks and advice below is provided by Niromada, a staple in the Occupy PGA Discord channel and perennial top 75 PGA DFS player according to RotoGrinders rankings. Join our Discord channel by becoming a Twitch subscriber.
NEW! Niromada won $100,000 on DraftKings for the WGC Match Play event in late March. Listen to our interview with him here as he discusses a lot of DFS strategies.
Note: Niromada will provide picks from his personal player pool -- and they may differ from the rankings in our Occupy Model -- but Niromada is tuned into the golf scene and can provide context that isn't taken into account by the model. We must also remember that the model is built exclusively for high-risk contests, so Niromada can also help us decipher the best plays for low-risk contests the model may overlook.
For full high-risk rankings on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo!, dive into the PGA Occupy Model.
- Updates will be made here in blue after the Plug is posted Tuesday afternoon.
- The Wednesday Update
- Pinnacle Steam Moves
- Here is the summary of the line moves at Pinnacle Sports so far. The percentage next to the name means the percent that the odds have gotten smaller since the Pinnacle opened their odds on Tuesday morning US time until now. Where now is roughly midday in the US on Wednesday. Pinnacle did price up the entire field this week.
- Steve Stricker 45%
Tom Hoge 36%
Ryan Armour 35%
Dylan Frittelli 29%
John Pak 26%
Brendon Todd 24%
Cameron Champ 20%
Luke List 17%
Jason Dufner 14%
Erik Van Rooyen 14%
Dustin Johnson 13%
Joel Dahmen 12%
Hank Lebioda 12%
Jhonattan Vegas 12%
Troy Merritt 12%
Stewart Cink 8%
Chez Reavie 8%
Bubba Watson 5%
Matthew Wolff 4%
Keegan Bradley 2%
- Pinnacle Misprice List
- What if we let the Pinnacle Odds to Win market price the field on DK this week instead of the DK Pricing Algo? The below chart reflects the biggest values according to Pinnacle's current odds. For example, in the DK price rankings, Brendon Todd is the 41st most expensive golfer in the field, but he has the 12th lowest odds at Pinnacle, so there is a 71% value on The Toddfather according to Pinnacle.
- Brendon Todd 71%
Steve Stricker 48%
Hank Lebioda 41%
Kyle Stanley 32%
Jason Dufner 30%
Cameron Tringale 29%
Doug Ghim 27%
Robert Macintyre 27%
Patrick Reed 25%
Luke List 25%
Satoshi Kodaira 24%
Jhonattan Vegas 24%
Ryan Armour 24%
Keegan Bradley 23%
Tom Hoge 23%
Wes Roach 21%
Rafael Campos 20%
Maverick McNealy 18%
Brice Garnett 17%
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 17%
Chez Reavie 16%
David Hearn 16%
Nick Watney 15%
- Pinnacle has spoken. Look at the top of the line moves and value list. Stricker, Todd, Armour, Hoge etc. All shorter, accurate types who can get real hot with the putter. While this is not universal (see Champ and List), it still account for the majority of the moves and values.
- It would have been easier to save money this week if there had not been a move on EVR.
- The move on DJ stands out because he was already the favorite before the move and he was the only one who has really moved at the top of the market.
- I'll try to hop into the Discord tonight and post any late line moves that I see.
- Pinnacle Steam Moves
Notable Betting Odds:
Dustin Johnson (+750)
Louis Oosthuizen (+1100)
Tony Finau (+1400)
Patrick Reed (+1400)
Cameron Tringale (+2500)
Sergio Garcia (+2800)
Emiliano Grillo (+2800)
Matthew Wolff (+3000)
Keegan Bradley (+3300)
Robert MacIntyre (+3300)
Bubba Watson (+3500)
Use the PGA Model to look at line movements. With such massive odds disparities, line movement numbers are relative to opening odds for each golfer. Not all similar number moves are the same.
Friday afternoon looks to have slightly higher winds (10-15 mph) -- if that forecast holds, there will be a slight edge for Friday Showdown contests for morning golfers.
Course: TPC Twin Cities (Blaine, MN)
Par: Par 71
Grass Type: Fairways and greens are bentgrass while the rough is bluegrass and fescue.
We’re back to another event on the Midwestern birdie fest portion of the PGA Tour season. While this is only the third time that TPC Twin Cities has hosted this event, the two winning scores from Wolff in ’19 (-21) and Thompson in ’20 (-19) show that this course will be taken apart by the pros this week. We’ve had polar opposite styles with Wolff and Thompson winning, so there are clearly a variety of styles that can win this week. There is plenty of water on the course, but otherwise the course does not require a defining set of characteristics to best play it. I’ll be looking for approach play, distance and then putting in that order.
PGA has a lot of data available for you to consider. This week, the following stats are important. This changes week to week based on course characteristics in PGA DFS.
Putting Variance* - custom Occupy Fantasy analysis built into the Occupy Model
The performance of the picks from last week is below. The plus/minus number in parenthesis is the amount above or below the player scored when compared to their pre-tournament expected fantasy points based on their DK salary number (Note that these totals will always be wonky / overly negative when the course plays difficult due to the lack of fantasy scoring for birdies etc. – and when the course plays extremely easy, the +/- scores will always be overly positive. This all evens itself out over a long timeframe.):
Branden Grace (-19). Grace missed his first cut since the Players back in March and the benign conditions did him no favors. He was sitting on the cut line at +1 when he made a quadruple bogey 8 at the 9th and ended his chances.
Collin Morikawa (+49). Always nice to have the winner. Morikawa put on a suffocating display of his talent over the weekend as he played his last 30 holes in 8 under par with no bogeys. How good is he going to be when he actually hits his prime? Lordy!
Patrick Reed (-45). We have no strokes gained data, but Reed hit 70% of his greens in regulation and my eyeballs told me that it was his usually stand out short game which let him down. Easily my most expensive missed cut on the week.
Lucas Herbert (-23). I really enjoyed Herbert’s post round comments after his early tee time in Round 1 where he complained about not being able to wake up and struggling to get into the round. Hopefully he caught up on his sleep over the weekend since he didn’t have to golf.
Shane Lowry (+14). Lowry finished 12th and put on a good showing in his title defense. He said that it was his best ball striking of the year and his 75% GIR figure would agree. Anything resembling a normal putting week for him, and he would have been right there.
Jordan Spieth (+37). Jordy is going to look back and regret those bogeys on 17 and 18 during Saturday’s round as they kept him out of the last group on Sunday and ruined an otherwise vintage Spieth links performance across the four days.
Others I liked more than the field: Koepka (+7), Harman (+31), Day (-33), Garcia (+19) and Rai (+14).
2021 Running Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +87 fantasy points over expected. +13 at The Open.
2021 Running Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: -431 fantasy points over expected. +38 at The Open.
Final 2020 Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +621 fantasy points over expected.
Final 2020 Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +356 fantasy points over expected.
PGA DFS Picks - Top Golfers:
These are the top golfers in my player pool for the 3M Open:
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