PGA DFS Picks: The PGA Daily Plug for the 2023 Sanderson Farms Championship
The PGA Daily Plug highlights the top PGA DFS picks for the 2023 Sanderson Farms Championship contests on FanDuel & DraftKings, then provides strategies on how to build lineups for all contest types.
The PGA DFS picks and advice below is provided by Niromada, a staple in the Occupy PGA Discord channel and perennial top 75 PGA DFS player according to RotoGrinders rankings. Join our Discord channel by becoming a YouTube subscriber.
DON'T MISS! Listen to our interview with Niromada here where he discusses integral DFS strategies.
Note: Niromada will provide picks from his personal player pool -- and they may differ from the rankings in our Occupy Model -- but Niromada is tuned into the golf scene and can provide context that isn't taken into account by the model. We must also remember that the model is built exclusively for high-risk contests, so Niromada can also help us decipher the best plays for low-risk contests the model may overlook.
For full high-risk rankings on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo! -- for both Classic and Showdown contests -- dive into the PGA Occupy Model.
UPDATES:
- Updates will be made here in blue after the Plug is posted Wednesday morning.
Notable Betting Odds:
Biggest Favorites:
Ludvig Aberg (+1200)
Stephan Jaeger (+1800)
Eric Cole (+2000)
Emiliano Grillo (+2200)
Beau Hossler (+2500)
Adam Svensson (+2800)
Keith Mitchell (+3000)
Doug Ghim (+3300)
Ben Griffin (+3300)
Lucas Herbert (+3300)
Mark Hubbard (+3300)
Kyoung-Hoon Lee (+3300)
Seong-hyeon Kim (+3300)
Hayden Buckley (+4000)
Garrick Higgo (+4000)
Lee Hodges (+4000)
Nicholas Lindheim (+4000)
Davis Riley (+4000)
Alex Smalley (+4000)
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Weather:
It might be a little gusty on Saturday, but conditions look to be quite calm otherwise, so no edge for Classic contests.
Course Info:
Course: Country Club of Jackson (Jackson, MS)
Length: 7,400+
Par: Par 72
Grass Type: Fairways: Bermuda | Rough: Bermuda and Zoysia | Greens: Bermuda.
Likely winning score: -16 to -20
Course attributes: This is a Donald Ross-eque course with pushed up greens and run off areas. It is loosely tree-lined and lined from front to back with Bermuda grass | Outside of the green complexes, the course is mostly flat and does not have too many doglegs.
Player attributes we want: Driving distance and strokes gained approach are tied for me as the number one attributes that I am chasing this week | I will also prioritize those with good Bermuda stats as well those who have solid local connections | Last for me will be birdie percentage and short game | You will likely need to be near -20 to win this one.
Key Stats:
PGA has a lot of data available for you to consider. This week, the following stats are important. This changes week to week based on course characteristics in PGA DFS.
Ball Striking
Birdies Gained
Approach, 100-150 yards and 250+
Driving Distance
Putting Variance* - custom Occupy Fantasy analysis built into the Occupy Model
Weekly Transparency:
We'll use this section to track my top plays throughout the season. The performance of previous picks are below:
The plus/minus number is the amount above or below the player scored when compared to their pre-tournament expected fantasy points based on their DK salary number. Note that these totals will always be wonky / overly negative when the course plays difficult due to the lack of fantasy scoring for birdies etc. – and when the course plays extremely easy, the +/- scores will always be overly positive. This all evens itself out over a long timeframe.
Zac Blair (+21)
CT Pan (-25)
Sahith Theegala (+63)
Andrew Putnam (-47)
Sam Stevens (+15)
Alex Noren (-47)
Others I liked more than the field: Suh (+2), D Thompson (+15), Ryder (+25), Smotherman (-15) and Montgomery (-40).
2023 Running Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: 227 fantasy points under expected. (-20 at The Fortinet)
2023 Running Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +253 fantasy points over expected. (-13 at The Fortinet).
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Historical Plug performance:
Final 2022 Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +359 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2022 Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +342 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2021 Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeup: +564 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2021 Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +167 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2020 Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +621 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2020 Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +356 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
PGA DFS Picks - Top Golfers:
These are the top golfers in my player pool for the 2023 Sanderson Farms Championship:
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Want to read the rest? The full PGA DFS Daily Plug is available for members only. Get Niromada's top plays and lineup strategies to give you actionable PGA daily fantasy advice. Want to read a full PGA DFS Daily Plug before you become a member? Check out the Plug from the Memorial Tournament here. Six reasons why you should become a member of Occupy Fantasy. Members get access to ALL SPORTS, so SIGN UP NOW. |
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