PGA DFS Picks: The PGA Daily Plug for the 2023 Valero Texas Open
The PGA Daily Plug highlights the top PGA DFS picks for the 2023 Valero Texas Open contests on FanDuel & DraftKings, then provides strategies on how to build lineups for all contest types.
The PGA DFS picks and advice below is provided by Niromada, a staple in the Occupy PGA Discord channel and perennial top 75 PGA DFS player according to RotoGrinders rankings. Join our Discord channel by becoming a YouTube subscriber.
DON'T MISS! Listen to our interview with Niromada here where he discusses integral DFS strategies.
Note: Niromada will provide picks from his personal player pool -- and they may differ from the rankings in our Occupy Model -- but Niromada is tuned into the golf scene and can provide context that isn't taken into account by the model. We must also remember that the model is built exclusively for high-risk contests, so Niromada can also help us decipher the best plays for low-risk contests the model may overlook.
For full high-risk rankings on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo! -- for both Classic and Showdown contests -- dive into the PGA Occupy Model.
UPDATES:
- Updates will be made here in blue after the Plug is posted Wednesday morning.
Notable Betting Odds:
Biggest Favorites:
Tyrrell Hatton (+1200)
Corey Conners (+1800)
Rickie Fowler (+1800)
Si Woo Kim (+2000)
Davis Riley (+2200)
Matt Kuchar (+2500)
Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)
Taylor Montgomery (+2500)
Chris Kirk (+2800)
Alexander Noren (+3300)
J.J. Spaun (+3300)
Thomas Detry (+4000)
Ryan Fox (+4000)
Matt Wallace (+4000)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+4500)
Ben Griffin (+4500)
Nick Taylor (+4500)
Brendon Todd (+4500)
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Weather:
Gusty winds on Thursday/Friday before a calmer weekend. Current forecast has a wave advantage for the Thursday AM / Friday PM golfers in Classic contests, so stay tuned here - we'll check back in on this in the Wednesday Update.
Course Info:
Course: The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio (San Antonio, TX)
Length: 7,400+
Par: Par 72
Grass Type: Fairways: Ryegrass & Fescue | Rough: Ryegrass & Fescue | Greens: Bermuda Overseed with Poa
Likely winning score: -13 to -18
Course attributes: Defined fairways with trees and rocky, hazard areas on both sides of many holes | Greens are elevated and draw raves from players for their putting purity | A solid all around test that is enhanced when the wind blows | Plenty of big bunkers surround the greens and some of the fairways.
Player attributes we want: Strokes gained approach is our number one metric this week | Next on my list are players who thrive in the wind | Ties to Texas are preferred | Although generally considered a ball strikers test due to the bunkering and fairways lined by trees and hazard areas; strong putters have occasionally thrived here – most likely due to purity of the greens. Both profiles are targetable this week.
Key Stats:
PGA has a lot of data available for you to consider. This week, the following stats are important. This changes week to week based on course characteristics in PGA DFS.
Ball Striking
Birdies Made / Bogeys Avoided
Approach
Around the Green
Performance in Windy Conditions
Driving Accuracy / Good Drives
Putting Variance* - custom Occupy Fantasy analysis built into the Occupy Model
Weekly Transparency:
We'll use this section to track my top plays throughout the season. The performance of previous picks are below:
The plus/minus number is the amount above or below the player scored when compared to their pre-tournament expected fantasy points based on their DK salary number. Note that these totals will always be wonky / overly negative when the course plays difficult due to the lack of fantasy scoring for birdies etc. – and when the course plays extremely easy, the +/- scores will always be overly positive. This all evens itself out over a long timeframe.
No official plays from The Match Play last week.
2023 Running Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: -62 fantasy points under expected. No Match Play Tracking.
2023 Running Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +275 fantasy points over expected. No Match Play Tracking. 🔥
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Historical Plug performance:
Final 2022 Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +359 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2022 Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +342 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2021 Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeup: +564 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2021 Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +167 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2020 Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +621 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2020 Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +356 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
PGA DFS Picks - Top Golfers:
These are the top golfers in my player pool for the 2023 Valero Texas Open:
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