PGA DFS Picks: The PGA Daily Plug for the 2022 Genesis Scottish Open
The PGA Daily Plug highlights the top PGA DFS picks for the 2022 Genesis Scottish Open contests on FanDuel & DraftKings, then provides strategies on how to build lineups for all contest types.
The PGA DFS picks and advice below is provided by Niromada, a staple in the Occupy PGA Discord channel and perennial top 75 PGA DFS player according to RotoGrinders rankings. Join our Discord channel by becoming a YouTube subscriber.
DON'T MISS! Niromada won $100,000 on DraftKings for the WGC Match Play event last year. Listen to our interview with him here as he discusses a lot of DFS strategies.
Note: Niromada will provide picks from his personal player pool -- and they may differ from the rankings in our Occupy Model -- but Niromada is tuned into the golf scene and can provide context that isn't taken into account by the model. We must also remember that the model is built exclusively for high-risk contests, so Niromada can also help us decipher the best plays for low-risk contests the model may overlook.
For full high-risk rankings on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo!, dive into the PGA Occupy Model.
- Updates will be made here in blue after the Plug is posted Wednesday morning.
Notable Betting Odds:
Jon Rahm (+900)
Scottie Scheffler (+1100)
Justin Thomas (+1100)
Xander Schauffele (+1600)
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1800)
Patrick Cantlay (+2500)
Will Zalatoris (+2500)
Cameron Smith (+2800)
Sam Burns (+3000)
Collin Morikawa (+3000)
Jordan Spieth (+3000)
Viktor Hovland (+3300)
Hideki Matsuyama (+3300)
Ryan Fox (+4000)
Billy Horschel (+4000)
Joaquin Niemann (+4000)
Sung-Jae Im (+4000)
Use the PGA Model to look at line movements at our partnered sportsbook. With such massive odds disparities, line movement numbers are relative to opening odds for each golfer. Not all similar number moves are the same.
Outside of Thursday, there should be sustained 10mph+ winds throughout the event. While there doesn't appear to be a wave edge for Showdown or Classic contests, it does increase the importance of players who thrive in windier conditions.
Course: The Renaissance Club (North Berwick, Scotland)
Par: Par 71
Grass Type: Fairways: Fescue| Rough: Fescue| Greens: Fescue
Likely winning score: -17 to -21
Course attributes: Wind Forecast | Light winds on Thursday give way to heavier winds on Friday, especially in the afternoon. Will need to monitor this one until lock. | Not a true links course, but a links style course. | The course only has two defenses, the wind and the undulations on the greens. | Wind will be a factor this week, but, as of now, does not look to be heavy enough to keep the birdies off the leaderboards | Given the lack of hazards off the tee, distance will be especially helpful this week | The pot bunkers around the greens and the slope on the greens means that we’re also looking for someone with a nice short game feel.
Player attributes we want: A bomber who can putt the lights out would be our perfect profile this week, but we know those types are in short supply | Driving distance and approach play will be my top two attributes this week | The ability to handle the wind and a proven track record at coastal venues is next for me with putting and short game prowess | Additionally, I will be giving extra bumps to the links specialists this week even though we’re not on a true links course.
PGA has a lot of data available for you to consider. This week, the following stats are important. This changes week to week based on course characteristics in PGA DFS.
Par 5 Performance
Putting Variance* - custom Occupy Fantasy analysis built into the Occupy Model
We'll use this section to track my top plays throughout the season. Note that we are still awaiting official +/- results from the Honda Classic to add to the tracking. The performance of last week's picks are below:
Ryan Armour (-30)
Chris Gotterup (+69)
Hyden Buckley (+38)
Brendon Todd (+12)
Martin Laird (+38)
Chez Reavie (-31)
Others I liked more than the field: Lashley (-17), Hardy (+27), Pendrith (WD), Rodgers (+34) and Lingmerth (-13).
The plus/minus number is the amount above or below the player scored when compared to their pre-tournament expected fantasy points based on their DK salary number. Note that these totals will always be wonky / overly negative when the course plays difficult due to the lack of fantasy scoring for birdies etc. – and when the course plays extremely easy, the +/- scores will always be overly positive. This all evens itself out over a long timeframe.
2022 Running Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +270 fantasy points over expected. +96 at JDC.
2022 Running Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +62 fantasy points over expected. +31 at JDC.
Final 2021 Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +564 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2021 Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +167 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2020 Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +621 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2020 Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +356 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
PGA DFS Picks - Top Golfers:
These are the top golfers in my player pool for the 2022 Genesis Scottish Open:
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