PGA DFS Picks: The PGA Daily Plug for the CJ Cup
The PGA Daily Plug highlights the top PGA DFS picks for the CJ Cup contests on FanDuel & DraftKings, then provides strategies on how to build lineups for all contest types.
The PGA DFS picks and advice below is provided by Niromada, a staple in the Occupy PGA Discord channel and perennial top 75 PGA DFS player according to RotoGrinders rankings. Join our Discord channel by becoming a Twitch subscriber.
Note: Niromada will provide picks from his personal player pool -- and they may differ from the rankings in our Occupy Model -- but Niromada is tuned into the golf scene and can provide context that isn't taken into account by the model. We must also remember that the model is built exclusively for high-risk contests, so Niromada can also help us decipher the best plays for low-risk contests the model may overlook.
Even though it's NFL season, we have to show love to our PGA DFS Daily Plug writer Niromada!
He built lineups last week using our @dfs_Magic_ lineup builder and his Plug picks then dominated the field on FanDuel🛠️
🥈2nd place finish for $7,500
📊TEN lineups in the top 100 pic.twitter.com/UNCsbajRwo
— Occupy Fantasy (@OccupyFantasy) October 5, 2020
For full high-risk rankings on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo!, dive into the PGA Occupy Model.
- Updates will be made here in blue after the Plug is posted Tuesday afternoon.
- The Wednesday Update
- Here is the summary of the line moves at Pinnacle Sports so far. The percentage next to the name means the percent that the odds have gotten smaller since the Pinnacle opened their odds on Tuesday morning US time until now. Where now is roughly midday in the US on Wednesday.
- One note on the Pinnacle lines. Unless it is a major, Pinnacle only prices up the top 50-60 players in the field. So that is why we never see "Pinnacle moves" on the bottom of the field.
- Joaquin Niemann 17%
- Matthew Wolff 9%
- Brooks Koepka 8%
- Collin Morikawa 6%
- Sungjae Im 3%
- When DJ withdrew from the event, it looks like the rest of the Top 10 had their odds reduced. I am being subjective here, but I did not count any of the line moves in the Top 10 of less than 5% as actual line moves. Hence, you only see Wolff/Koepka/Morikawa listed and Niemann and Im are obviously outside of the Top 10 favorites.
- For transparency, the rest of those Top 10 percentage reductions: Rahm 1% / Thomas 2% / McIlroy 4% / Schauffele 4% / Cantlay 3% / Hatton 2%
- A pretty quiet week so far in the the line moves department. Niemann the biggest move by far. One thing that should be noted is that the event does not start until almost 1 pm ET on Thursday. So, in a week with a new course, positive covid tests and not a ton of information, there might not be any bigger moves until Thursday (if there are additional moves at all).
- Definitely use the Tournament Matchups page on Pinnacle along with the OF Index to help make your harder lineup decisions when comparing one player to another.
- I'll post any of the later moves in the Discord channel later tonight and tomorrow morning, so be sure to check back!
Notable Betting Odds:
Jon Rahm (+800)
Justin Thomas (+900)
Xander Schauffele (+1000)
Rory McIlroy (+1100)
Patrick Cantlay (+1200)
Matthew Wolff (+1600)
Tyrrell Hatton (+2000)
Brooks Koepka (+2000)
Collin Morikawa (+2000)
Use the PGA Model to look at line movements. With such massive odds disparities, line movement numbers are relative to opening odds for each golfer. Not all similar number moves are the same.
There is slightly less wind in the afternoon on Friday, so use it as a tiebreaker for Round 2 Showdown contests. The difference isn't significant enough to take into account for classic contests.
We stay in Vegas but head over to the rarely seen Shadow Creek Golf Course. Outside of hosting “The Match” between Tiger and Phil in 2018, this exclusive gem hosts no tournaments and is never seen on tv. That means no course history and the course breakdown is based on player quotes and information that was presented before the Tiger-Phil tussle two years ago. Bottom line is that Steve Wynn paid Tom Fazio a boatload of money to create a beautiful, testing course that you’d more likely find in the Carolina mountains than in the flat Vegas desert where the course is located. It’s lush, full of mature trees and water and has plenty of elevation changes. My expectation is that the course will play somewhat difficult and is going to favor the ball striking set. Lots of unknowns with the course this week, so we want to favor ball striking and general value plays.
PGA has a lot of data available for you to consider. This week, the following stats are important. This changes week to week based on course characteristics in PGA DFS.
Greens in Regulation
Putting Variance* - custom Occupy Fantasy analysis built into the Occupy Model
PGA DFS Picks - Top Golfers:
These are the top golfers in my player pool for the CJ Cup:
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