PGA DFS Picks: The PGA Daily Plug for the 2021 ZOZO Championship
The PGA Daily Plug highlights the top PGA DFS picks for the 2021 ZOZO Championship contests on FanDuel & DraftKings, then provides strategies on how to build lineups for all contest types.
The PGA DFS picks and advice below is provided by Niromada, a staple in the Occupy PGA Discord channel and perennial top 75 PGA DFS player according to RotoGrinders rankings (he's actually #2 now since the new season just started, don't inflate his ego). Join our Discord channel by becoming a Twitch subscriber.
NEW! Niromada won $100,000 on DraftKings for the WGC Match Play event in late March. Listen to our interview with him here as he discusses a lot of DFS strategies.
Note: Niromada will provide picks from his personal player pool -- and they may differ from the rankings in our Occupy Model -- but Niromada is tuned into the golf scene and can provide context that isn't taken into account by the model. We must also remember that the model is built exclusively for high-risk contests, so Niromada can also help us decipher the best plays for low-risk contests the model may overlook.
For full high-risk rankings on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo!, dive into the PGA Occupy Model.
- Updates will be made here in blue after the Plug is posted Wednesday morning.
- 4:30pm EST -- Pinnacle has taken down the outrights market for this event, so we can't report on any major line moves. Here are the biggest mispricings based on their opening odds, though:
- Jhonattan Vegas 71%
Charley Hoffman 43%
Chris Kirk 40%
Luke List 33%
Keegan Bradley 25%
Doug Ghim 25%
Scott Vincent 24%
Alex Noren 22%
Adam Schenk 21%
Brandon Hagy 19%
Ryosuke Kinoshita 18%
Matt Jones 17%
Harry Higgs 16%
Maverick McNealy 15%
Wyndham Clark 15%
Kyle Stanley 15%
Sebastian Munoz 15%
- Jhonattan Vegas 71%
Notable Betting Odds:
Xander Schauffele (+600)
Collin Morikawa (+700)
Hideki Matsuyama (+1100)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1600)
Will Zalatoris (+1800)
Keegan Bradley (+2200)
Joaquin Niemann (+2200)
Rickie Fowler (+2500)
Si Woo Kim (+2800)
Cameron Tringale (+2800)
Jhonattan Vegas (+2800)
Emiliano Grillo (+3300)
Maverick McNealy (+3300)
Alexander Noren (+3300)
Erik van Rooyen (+3300)
Use the PGA Model to look at line movements. With such massive odds disparities, line movement numbers are relative to opening odds for each golfer. Not all similar number moves are the same.
Playing in Japan, no major weather issues to report (or take advantage of) for Classic or Showdown contests.
Course: Narashino Country Club (Chiba, Japan)
Par: Par 70 (but with five par 3’s and three par 5’s)
Grass Type: Fairways: Zoysia | Rough: Zoysia | Greens: Bent.
Likely winning score: -15 to -19
Course attributes: This event was played here once before in ’19, so we do have some ideas on what to target. It’s a tree-lined test with several doglegs. The rough is not overly penal but causes issues on approach to small greens that have quite a bit of undulation to them.
Player attributes we want: Accuracy slightly preferred over distance off the tee | strokes gained approach | total ball striking stats | players who have a demonstrated history of playing well in Asia get an extra check in the positive column this week.
PGA has a lot of data available for you to consider. This week, the following stats are important. This changes week to week based on course characteristics in PGA DFS.
Putting Variance* - custom Occupy Fantasy analysis built into the Occupy Model
The performance of the picks from last week is below. The plus/minus number in parenthesis is the amount above or below the player scored when compared to their pre-tournament expected fantasy points based on their DK salary number (Note that these totals will always be wonky / overly negative when the course plays difficult due to the lack of fantasy scoring for birdies etc. – and when the course plays extremely easy, the +/- scores will always be overly positive. This all evens itself out over a long timeframe.):
Louis Oosthuizen (+8)
Paul Casey (+23)
Hudson Swafford (+37)
Scottie Scheffler (+17)
Collin Morikawa (+54)
Others I liked more than the field: Garcia (+30), McNealy (+25), McIlroy (+72) and Wise (+60).
2021 Running Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +532 fantasy points over expected. +139 at CJ Cup.🔥
2021 Running Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +157 fantasy points over expected. +187 at CJ Cup.🔥
Final 2020 Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +621 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2020 Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +356 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
PGA DFS Picks - Top Golfers:
These are the top golfers in my player pool for the 2021 ZOZO Championship:
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