PGA DFS Picks: The PGA Daily Plug for the U.S. Open
The PGA Daily Plug highlights the top PGA DFS picks for the U.S. Open contests on FanDuel & DraftKings, then provides strategies on how to build lineups for all contest types.
The PGA DFS picks and advice below is provided by Niromada, a staple in the Occupy PGA Discord channel and perennial top 75 PGA DFS player according to RotoGrinders rankings. Join our Discord channel by becoming a Twitch subscriber.
Note: Niromada will provide picks from his personal player pool -- and they may differ from the rankings in our Occupy Model -- but Niromada is tuned into the golf scene and can provide context that isn't taken into account by the model. We must also remember that the model is built exclusively for high-risk contests, so Niromada can also help us decipher the best plays for low-risk contests the model may overlook.
For full high-risk rankings on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo!, dive into the PGA Occupy Model.
- Updates will be made here in blue after the Plug is posted Tuesday afternoon.
- WEDNESDAY UPDATE:
- Here is the summary of the line moves at Pinnacle Sports so far. The percentage next to the name means the percent that the odds have gotten smaller since the Pinnacle opened their odds on Tuesday morning US time until now. Where now is roughly midday in the US on Wednesday.
- One note on the Pinnacle lines. Unless it is a major, Pinnacle only prices up the top 50-60 players in the field. So that is why we never see "Pinnacle moves" on the bottom of the field. (Note that it IS a major this week and Pinnacle has priced up the entire field. We should still pay more attention to the percentage moves at the front of the market, but the moves towards the bottom could give us some great lower exposure / lower ownership plays.)
- Patrick Reed 23%
- Sebastian Munoz 23%
- Xander Schauffele 19%
- Tyrrell Hatton 17%
- Hideki Matsuyama 14%
- Jason Kokrak 10%
- Corey Conners 10%
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 10%
- Brian Harman 10%
- Jon Rahm 9%
- Collin Morikawa 8%
- Matthew Fitzpatrick 7%
- Louis Oosthuizen 7%
- Webb Simpson 6%
- Daniel Berger 4%
- 1) Good confirmation on Xander, Reed, and Rahm from the Plug. Also great to see that 6 of the Top 10 in the OF Model have taken money at Pinnacle. Note that Fleetwood and Jason Day have also taken some money, just not enough to be shorter than their opening odds.
- 2) The market on Pinnacle has spoken. The finishing score of 278.5 (-1.5 to par) is now -240 to the over and it was -108 on Monday. It's going to be very hard out there. Also, look at the theme of the players who were steamed. Distance is certainly helpful this week and is still a priority for me, but Webb/Morikawa/Xander/Reed/Hatton/Fitpatrick/Harman etc are professional golfers because of their accuracy. Not because of their distance.
- 3) If you plan on sweating the golf hole by hole or minute by minute, know that Pinnacle's line on the projected cut is +6.5 at -131 to the over. So, the cut should be somewhere around +6 to +8.
- 4) I'll post any of the later moves in the Discord channel later tonight and tomorrow morning, so be sure to check back!
Notable Betting Odds:
Dustin Johnson (+750)
Jon Rahm (+850)
Justin Thomas (+1200)
Xander Schauffele (+1400)
Rory McIlroy (+1600)
Collin Morikawa (+1600)
Webb Simpson (+2200)
Bryson DeChambeau (+2500)
Daniel Berger (+2800)
Patrick Reed (+2800)
Patrick Cantlay (+3300)
Tony Finau (+3300)
Tommy Fleetwood (+3300)
Tyrrell Hatton (+3300)
Hideki Matsuyama (+3300)
Jason Day (+3500)
Use the PGA Model to look at line movements. With such massive odds disparities, line movement numbers are relative to opening odds for each golfer. Not all similar number moves are the same.
There is currently no weather edge for morning or afternoon golfers on Thursday or Friday.
US Open week arrives as we land at the West Course at Winged Foot Golf Club in Mamaroneck, NY. This is a classic US Open venue. A revered course designer (Tillinghast) on a long course with narrow fairways, deep rough and fast greens. Despite the 7,400+ yards on a par 70, Winged Foot’s defining characteristics are the green complexes and not the length. The complexes are well bunkered and the greens themselves are multi-level, pitched and slanted in all directions. They will also be exceptionally fast. This will place an added emphasis on getting the ball in the fairway. Putting from distance or trying to hack it out of the rough is going to lead to bogies. Give me the best total drivers of the golf ball and the accurate short game types. My player pool will have a barbell look to it as I have lots of players at the extremes of distance/driving and accuracy/short game.
PGA has a lot of data available for you to consider. This week, the following stats are important. This changes week to week based on course characteristics in PGA DFS.
Putting Variance* - custom Occupy Fantasy analysis built into the Occupy Model
PGA DFS Picks - Top Golfers:
These are the top golfers in my player pool for the U.S. Open:
Want to read the rest?
The full PGA DFS Daily Plug is available for members only. Get Niromada's top plays and lineup strategies to give you actionable PGA daily fantasy advice.
Want to read a full PGA DFS Daily Plug before you become a member? Check out the Plug from the Memorial Tournament here.
Six reasons why you should become a member of Occupy Fantasy.
Members get access to ALL SPORTS, so SIGN UP NOW.
Sports Betting disclaimers
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER, or visit 800Gambler.org.
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-9-WITH-IT. Playable only in Indiana. Must be 21+.
MUST BE 21+ • PLAY IN COLORADO ONLY • GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-522-4700
MUST BE 21+ • PLAY IN ILLINOIS ONLY • GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER