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brooks koepka pga dfs picks lineup advice draftkings fanduel us open 2024 pinehurst
Brooks Koepka

PGA DFS Picks: The PGA Daily Plug for the 2024 U.S. Open

The PGA Daily Plug highlights the top PGA DFS picks for the 2024 U.S. Open contests on FanDuel & DraftKings, then provides strategies on how to build lineups for all contest types.

The PGA DFS picks and advice below is provided by Niromada, a staple in the Occupy PGA Discord channel and perennial top 75 PGA DFS player according to RotoGrinders rankings. Join our Discord channel by becoming a YouTube subscriber.

Note: Niromada will provide picks from his personal player pool -- and they may differ from the rankings in our Occupy Model -- but Niromada is tuned into the golf scene and can provide context that isn't taken into account by the model. We must also remember that the model is built exclusively for high-risk contests, so Niromada can also help us decipher the best plays for low-risk contests the model may overlook. 

Also be sure to check out:

UPDATES:

  • Updates will be made here in blue after the Plug is posted Wednesday morning. 
  • The Wednesday Update
    • Pinnacle Steam Moves
      • Here is the summary of the line moves at Pinnacle Sports so far. The percentage next to the name means the percent that the odds have gotten smaller since the time that Pinnacle opened their market on Monday evening US time until now. Where now is roughly midday in the US on Wednesday.
      • It should be noted that to streamline the data and make more sense of these moves, I am no longer including someone in this list if their odds to win were higher than 200-1 before the line move.
      • Russell Henley 44%
        Sungjae Im 33%
        Sahith Theegala 29%
        Xander Schauffele 29%
        Hideki Matsuyama 23%
        Cameron Young 22%
        Dean Burmester 19%
        Corey Conners 14%
        Sepp Straka 12%
        Rory McIlroy 11%
        Min Woo Lee 11%
        Ludvig Aberg 9%
        Denny McCarthy 9%
        Tommy Fleetwood 8%
        Christiaan Bezuidenhout 8%
        Davis Thompson 7%
        Justin Thomas 5%
        Cameron Smith 5%
        Collin Morikawa 4%
        Adam Scott 3%
        Scottie Scheffler 3%
    • Pinnacle Misprice List
      • What if we let the Pinnacle Odds to Win market price the field on DK this week instead of the DK Pricing Algorithm? The below chart reflects the biggest values according to Pinnacle's current odds. For example, in the DK price rankings, Collin Morikawa is the 9th most expensive golfer in the field, but he has the 4th lowest odds at Pinnacle, so there is a 56% value on Morikawa according to Pinnacle.
      • Collin Morikawa 56%
        Russell Henley 50%
        Sepp Straka 50%
        Hideki Matsuyama 47%
        Christiaan Bezuidenhout 43%
        Sungjae Im 41%
        Sahith Theegala 39%
        Davis Thompson 37%
        Nick Dunlap 35%
        Mac Meissner 34%
        Xander Schauffele 33%
        Viktor Hovland 29%
        Byeong Hun An 28%
        Dean Burmester 28%
        Min Woo Lee 26%
        Keegan Bradley 20%
        Tommy Fleetwood 20%
        Adam Hadwin 19%
        Mackenzie Hughes 18%
        Billy Horschel 17%
        Martin Kaymer 16%
        Cameron Smith 15%
        David Puig 15%
        Adrian Meronk 15%
    • Weather forecast: No changes here. Very calm Thursday and Friday with no tee time edges. Wind picks up a little on the weekend, but it’s not much.
    • The ownership update shows us that, as expected, Scheffler is moving on up. He’s now at 35% projected and I think he’ll be closer to 40% when contests lock. Scheffler, Schauffele and Morikawa are the 3 that probably get over 25%. I don’t think anyone else can get there. Make sure you are choosing deliberate strategies with your Scheffler ownership that is reflective of what you want AND what type of contest you are entering. The smaller the contest, the more I will be playing Scottie and getting different elsewhere.
    • Current Trifecta Plays: Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, Scottie Scheffler and Billy Horschel.
    • We will post final line moves in the Discord channel before the end of the night. Good luck this week!

Notable Betting Odds:

Biggest Favorites:
Scottie Scheffler (+300)
Xander Schauffele (+900)
Rory McIlroy (+1200)
Viktor Hovland (+1600)
Collin Morikawa (+1600)
Bryson DeChambeau (+2000)
Ludvig Aberg (+2000)
Brooks Koepka (+2200)
Tommy Fleetwood (+3500)
Cameron Smith (+4000)
Justin Thomas (+4000)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+4500)
Hideki Matsuyama (+4500)

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Weather:

Wind Forecast

We have a pair of really calm, dry days on Thursday and Friday with a bit more wind on the weekend, but not much wind overall. It seems unlikely to cause a major wave advantage for DFS.

Course Info:

Course: Pinehurst Number 2, Pinehurst Resort (Pinehurst, North Carolina)
Length: 7,500+
Par: Par 70

Grass Type: Fairways - Bermuda | Rough – Sand and Wiregrass | Greens - Bermuda
Likely winning score: +1 to -4

Course attributes: #2 is a Donald Ross classic that was refurbished by Coore and Crenshaw in 2011 | We are going to have a firm, fast golf course without much traditional rough. Most all the fairways are bordered by native sand and wiregrass waste areas. Good lies and horrific ones will be left to the whims of the golf gods | The greens are dome-ish with plenty of areas that repel offline shots. The greens themselves are sizeable, but the available landing areas for good shots are restricted | The areas around the green are mostly shaved down leading to tightly mown collection areas, bunkers or the native sand and wiregrass waste areas | This course asks different questions on each hole which should, in theory, allow a variety in the styles of players that can succeed here.

Player attributes we want: There is a wide range of opinions on the type of player we want this week and that is what happens when we arrive at a non-traditional golf course for a US Open | Generally speaking, I will be targeting approach play specialists, especially those who excel from 150 yards and above as well as short game savants who will be better suited to handling the huge undulations that are present in the green complexes | Distance always matters and it will matter this week, but a firm, fast course with wide fairways and without rough bordering the fairways that is a half shot penalty allows for more types of players to contend | Distance control and narrow dispersions with your irons will be very important as you must limit the amount of times you have to grind out difficult up and downs for par | Grinders and tough examination lovers always get bumps from me at US Opens. That will especially be the case this week as even par might be the winning score unless Scheffler laps the field.

Key Stats:

PGA has a lot of data available for you to consider. This week, the following stats are important. This changes week to week based on course characteristics in PGA DFS. 

Ball Striking
Birdies Gained
Approach, especially from 150+ yards
Strokes Gained Off The Tee / Total Driving
Strokes Gained Around the Green / Scrambling
History on Sandy Venues and/or Courses with Tight Lies Around the Green
Approach Putting
Putting Variance* - custom Occupy Fantasy analysis built into the Occupy Model

Weekly Transparency:

We'll use this section to track my top plays throughout the season. The performance of previous picks are below:

The plus/minus number is the amount above or below the player scored when compared to their pre-tournament expected fantasy points based on their DK salary number.  Note that these totals will always be wonky / overly negative when the course plays difficult due to the lack of fantasy scoring for birdies etc. – and when the course plays extremely easy, the +/- scores will always be overly positive.  This all evens itself out over a long timeframe.

Collin Morikawa (+16)
Tony Finau (+16)
Ludvig Aberg (-1)
Corey Conners (+2)
Keegan Bradley (-4)
Austin Eckroat (+3)

Others I liked more than the field: Detry (-2), W Clark (-46), Straka (+18), Henley (-7) and Hovland (-14).

2024 Running Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +197 fantasy points over expected. +32 at The Memorial.
2024 Running Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +567 fantasy points over expected. -51 at The Memorial.

Historical Plug performance:

Final 2023 Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +301 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2023 Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +808 fantasy points over expected. 🔥

Final 2022 Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +359 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2022 Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like:  +342 fantasy points over expected. 🔥

Final 2021 Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeup: +564 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2021 Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +167 fantasy points over expected. 🔥

Final 2020 Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +621 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2020 Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +356 fantasy points over expected. 🔥

PGA DFS Picks - Top Golfers:

These are the top golfers in my player pool for the 2024 U.S. Open:

Want to read the rest?

The full PGA DFS Daily Plug is available for members only. Get Niromada's top plays and lineup strategies to give you actionable PGA daily fantasy advice.

Want to read a full PGA DFS Daily Plug before you become a member? Check out the Plug from the Memorial Tournament here.

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