PGA DFS Picks: The PGA Daily Plug for the Zurich Classic
The PGA Daily Plug highlights the top PGA DFS picks for the Zurich Classic contests on FanDuel & DraftKings, then provides strategies on how to build lineups for all contest types.
The PGA DFS picks and advice below is provided by Niromada, a staple in the Occupy PGA Discord channel and perennial top 75 PGA DFS player according to RotoGrinders rankings. Join our Discord channel by becoming a Twitch subscriber.
NEW! Niromada won $100,000 on DraftKings for the WGC Match Play event in late March. Listen to our interview with him here as he discusses a lot of DFS strategies.
Note: Niromada will provide picks from his personal player pool -- and they may differ from the rankings in our Occupy Model -- but Niromada is tuned into the golf scene and can provide context that isn't taken into account by the model. We must also remember that the model is built exclusively for high-risk contests, so Niromada can also help us decipher the best plays for low-risk contests the model may overlook.
For full high-risk rankings on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo!, dive into the PGA Occupy Model.
- Updates will be made here in blue after the Plug is posted Tuesday afternoon.
- The Wednesday Update
- Pinnacle Steam Moves
- Here is the summary of the line moves at Pinnacle Sports so far. The percentage next to the name means the percent that the odds have gotten smaller since the Pinnacle opened their odds on Tuesday morning US time until now. Where now is roughly midday in the US on Wednesday. Pinnacle did price up the entire field this week.
- Kokrak-Perez 27%
- Homa-Gooch 22%
- NeSmith-Seiffert 18%
- Im-Ben An 8%
- Hovland- Ventura 5%
- Kirk-Todd 1%
- Rahm-Palmer 1%
- Pinnacle Misprice List
- What if we let the Pinnacle Odds to Win market price the field on DK this week instead of the DK Pricing Algo? The below chart reflects the biggest values according to Pinnacle's current odds. For example, in the DK price rankings, Frittelli-Streelman are the 34th most expensive golfers in the field, but they have the 23rd lowest odds at Pinnacle, so there is a 32% value on Frittelli-Streelman according to Pinnacle.
- Frittelli-Streelman 32%
- Castro-Tringale 25%
- Ghim-Suh 22%
- Kokrak-Perez 20%
- Kirk-Todd 19%
- Thompson-Gordon 15%
- Romero-Vegas 14%
- Holmes-Garrigus 14%
- Bradley-Steele 12%
- Hoffman-Watney 11%
- Laird-Taylor 11%
- If I had to guess, I would think this is one of the most lightly wagered of the regular PGA Tour events. I'm not surprised that the market appears to be fairly quiet this week.
- It should be noted that this is also a somewhat light week for content / algorithms / models across DFS. There could be some small edges with using the Plug + Pinnacle data.
- Interesting that every line move so far has been on a team that has two full time PGA Tour players on it.
- Nothing super noteable has come up in the press conferences so far, but if anything does or if there are additional line moves later tonight, I'll get them posted in the Discord channel before things start on Thursday.
- Pinnacle Steam Moves
Notable Betting Odds:
Use the PGA Model to look at line movements. With such massive odds disparities, line movement numbers are relative to opening odds for each golfer. Not all similar number moves are the same.
There should be 10+mph winds throughout the early part of the tournament, with winds increasing above 15mpb Friday afternoon.
Course: TPC Louisiana (Avondale, LA)
Par: Par 72
Grass Type: Bermuda for the fairways, rough and greens (overseeded with rye).
Another week, another Pete Dye course. TPC Louisiana has been hosting this event since 2005, so we have a decent amount of information at our fingertips. We have a fairly open course with manageable rough and without heavy tree cover. It’s primarily defended by water (in play on about half the holes) and over 100 bunkers that are scattered throughout the property. We’ve had players of all types win here over the years, so without a very specific profile to lean on, I’ll be looking for teams that have solid recent form. If forced to choose attributes I would want approach play, distance and then strokes gained around the green.
PGA has a lot of data available for you to consider. This week, the following stats are important. This changes week to week based on course characteristics in PGA DFS.
Greens in Regulation
Around the Green
Putting Variance* - custom Occupy Fantasy analysis built into the Occupy Model
The performance of the picks from last week is below. The plus/minus number in parenthesis is the amount above or below the player scored when compared to their pre-tournament expected fantasy points based on their DK salary number (Note that these totals will always be wonky / overly negative when the course plays difficult due to the lack of fantasy scoring for birdies etc. – and when the course plays extremely easy, the +/- scores will always be overly positive. This all evens itself out over a long timeframe.):
Matt Kuchar (+16). Finished T-18th and gained strokes tee to green across the four days.
Patton Kizzire (-17). More well owned than I thought and missed the cut with poor opening round.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+25). Got better each day and finished T-4th with some great putting.
Si Woo Kim (+20). Hit the ball really well to finish T-33rd. Would have been better with a warm putter.
Sergio Garcia (-38). Cruising along until dumping three balls in the water on Friday to miss the cut.
Russell Henley (+25). Snuck into the Top 10 on Sunday and led the field in strokes gained approach.
Others I liked more than the field: Grace (+7), Streelman (+17), NeSmith (+15), English (-36), Simpson (-4).
2021 Running Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +256 fantasy points over expected. +31 at Heritage.🔥
2021 Running Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: -17 fantasy points over expected. -1 at Heritage.
Final 2020 Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +621 fantasy points over expected.🔥
Final 2020 Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +356 fantasy points over expected.🔥
PGA DFS Picks - Top Golfers:
These are the top golfers in my player pool for the Zurich Classic:
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