PGA DFS Picks: The PGA Daily Plug for the 2021 American Express
The PGA Daily Plug highlights the top PGA DFS picks for the 2021 American Express contests on FanDuel & DraftKings, then provides strategies on how to build lineups for all contest types.
The PGA DFS picks and advice below is provided by Niromada, a staple in the Occupy PGA Discord channel and perennial top 75 PGA DFS player according to RotoGrinders rankings. Join our Discord channel by becoming a Twitch subscriber.
Note: Niromada will provide picks from his personal player pool -- and they may differ from the rankings in our Occupy Model -- but Niromada is tuned into the golf scene and can provide context that isn't taken into account by the model. We must also remember that the model is built exclusively for high-risk contests, so Niromada can also help us decipher the best plays for low-risk contests the model may overlook.
For full high-risk rankings on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo!, dive into the PGA Occupy Model.
- Updates will be made here in blue after the Plug is posted Tuesday afternoon.
- The Wednesday Update
- Pinnacle Steam Moves
- Here is the summary of the line moves at Pinnacle Sports so far. The percentage next to the name means the percent that the odds have gotten smaller since the Pinnacle opened their odds on Tuesday morning US time until now. Where now is roughly midday in the US on Wednesday. One note on the Pinnacle lines. Unless it is a major, Pinnacle only prices up the top 50-60 players in the field. So that is why we never see "Pinnacle moves" on the bottom of the field.
- Cameron Davis 25%
- Keegan Bradley 25%
- Abraham Ancer 16%
- Si Woo Kim 16%
- Sepp Straka 16%
- Scottie Scheffler 4%
- Pinnacle Misprice List
- What if we let the Pinnacle Odds to Win market price the field on DK this week instead of the DK Pricing Algo? The below chart reflects the biggest values according to Pinnacle's current odds. For example, in the DK price rankings, Scottie Scheffler is the 8th most expensive golfer in the field, but he has the 3rd highest odds at Pinnacle, so there is a 63% value on Scheffler according to Pinnacle.
- Scottie Scheffler 63%
- Patrick Reed 60%
- Patrick Cantlay 50%
- Cameron Davis 36%
- Cameron Champ 31%
- Cameron Tringale 31%
- Si Woo Kim 30%
- Abraham Ancer 27%
- Keegan Bradley 23%
- Sam Burns 21%
- Francesco Molinari 20%
- Talor Gooch 19%
- Sepp Straka 17%
- Matt Jones 16%
- A smaller set of moves so far. Not sure if there is a big theme, but Davis, Bradley and Ancer are all known more their total ball striking prowess than they are for their short games.
- For the Pinnacle Misprice List, we should remember that Rahm's WD after the prices had been established on the DFS platforms automatically bumps up a few of those at the top. Cantlay is a good example of someone is #1 in the odds market but #2 on the DFS sites only because of Rahm's WD.
- The ownership of Scheffler and Cantlay is really starting to creep up and my "feel" estimate for those two is higher than what is in the model. We'll need to keep monitoring. If they both get closer to that 30% mark, I'll likely be under-weight on them in high risk and over-weight on them in low risk.
- We're no longer in Hawaii, but still on the West Coast so the tee times are a little later on Thursday. I'll try and post some final updates in the Discord channel before things start on Thursday.
Notable Betting Odds:
Patrick Cantlay (+1200)
Patrick Reed (+1400)
Tony Finau (+1600)
Scott Scheffler (+1600)
Brooks Koepka (+2000)
Sung-Jae Im (+2000)
Abraham Ancer (+2200)
Matthew Wolff (+2200)
Cameron Champ (+3300)
Russell Henley (+3300)
Charles Howell III (+3300)
Kevin Na (+3300)
Use the PGA Model to look at line movements. With such massive odds disparities, line movement numbers are relative to opening odds for each golfer. Not all similar number moves are the same.
There are no weather edges for Showdown or Classic contests this week.
Courses: The Stadium Course and The Nicklaus Tournament Course (Palm Springs, California)
Length: Stadium is 7,100+ and Nicklaus Tournament is 7,200+
Par: Both courses are Par 72 (four Par 5’s each)
Grass Type: Fairways, Rough and Greens are all Bermuda
The first thing to note is that this will not be your standard Amex event due to Covid. Instead of a three course rotation, three day pro-am and a cut after 54 holes, there will just be the two courses used, a standard 36-hole cut and no amateur playing partners. Without amateurs, tournament officials should be able to set up the courses more like a regular week on tour. Each player will play the Stadium and the Nicklaus courses once before the cut, and then the 36 holes on the weekend will take place on the Stadium course. Although the results haven’t really shown it, the Stadium Course does over-index for driving distance and (slightly less) for putting according the Data Golf course fit tool. It’s also a Pete Dye design, so correlating form on other Dye courses should not be over-looked given how uniquely he designed courses. I’ll also be looking for players who have already played and are generally good ball strikers. My preferences in order: driving distance (and total driving), approach play, Pete Dye course history, putting and recent play.
PGA has a lot of data available for you to consider. This week, the following stats are important. This changes week to week based on course characteristics in PGA DFS.
Putting Variance* - custom Occupy Fantasy analysis built into the Occupy Model
PGA DFS Picks - Top Golfers:
These are the top golfers in my player pool for the 2021 American Express:
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