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tony finau pga dfs picks lineup advice draftkings fanduel 2022 farmers insurance open
Tony Finau

PGA DFS Picks: The PGA Daily Plug for the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open

The PGA Daily Plug highlights the top PGA DFS picks for the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open contests on FanDuel & DraftKings, then provides strategies on how to build lineups for all contest types.

The PGA DFS picks and advice below is provided by Niromada, a staple in the Occupy PGA Discord channel and perennial top 75 PGA DFS player according to RotoGrinders rankings (he's actually #9 now since the new season just started, don't inflate his ego). Join our Discord channel by becoming a YouTube subscriber.

DON'T MISS! Niromada won $100,000 on DraftKings for the WGC Match Play event last year. Listen to our interview with him here as he discusses a lot of DFS strategies

Note: Niromada will provide picks from his personal player pool -- and they may differ from the rankings in our Occupy Model -- but Niromada is tuned into the golf scene and can provide context that isn't taken into account by the model. We must also remember that the model is built exclusively for high-risk contests, so Niromada can also help us decipher the best plays for low-risk contests the model may overlook. 

For full high-risk rankings on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo!, dive into the PGA Occupy Model.

UPDATES:

  • Updates will be made here in blue after the Plug is posted Wednesday morning.
  • The TUESDAY Update
    • Pinnacle Steam Moves
      • Here is the summary of the line moves at Pinnacle Sports so far. The percentage next to the name means the percent that the odds have gotten smaller since the time that Pinnacle opened their market on Monday evening US time until now. Where now is roughly midday in the US on Tuesday.
      • Bryson DeChambeau 26%
        Dylan Frittelli 25%
        Matthew Wolff 25%
        Cameron Davis 18%
        Francesco Molinari 17%
        Cameron Young 14%
        Tony Finau 13%
        Jon Rahm 9%
        Dustin Johnson 7%
        Hideki Matsuyama 6%
        Max Homa 3%
    • Pinnacle Misprice List
      • What if we let the Pinnacle Odds to Win market price the field on DK this week instead of the DK Pricing Algorithm? The below chart reflects the biggest values according to Pinnacle's current odds. For example, in the DK price rankings, Bryson DeChambeau is the 7th most expensive golfer in the field, but he has the 3rd lowest odds at Pinnacle, so there is a 57% value on Bryson according to Pinnacle.
      • Bryson DeChambeau 57%
        Tony Finau 36%
        Francesco Molinari 35%
        Joseph Bramlett 33%
        Lanto Griffin 29%
        Taylor Moore 28%
        Patton Kizzire 27%
        Scott Stallings 26%
        Scottie Scheffler 20%
        Marc Leishman 20%
        Xander Schauffele 20%
        Pat Perez 19%
        Emiliano Grillo 18%
        Harry Higgs 18%
        Henrik Norlander 18%
        Sepp Straka 17%
        Stephan Jaeger 15%
        Cameron Davis 14%
    • There are not a ton of moves so far. That makes sense given the condensed time frame of the tournament this week.
    • The move on Bryson is noteworthy as we don’t often see moves that big at the top of the odds board.
    • Molinari, Matsuyama and Homa are the only three on the steam moves list that are not known for their distance.
    • I’ll try and post some final line moves in the morning in the PGA Discord Channel

Notable Betting Odds:

Biggest Favorites:
Jon Rahm (+700)
Justin Thomas (+1200)
Xander Schauffele (+1600)
Bryson DeChambeau (+1800)
Hideki Matsuyama (+1800)
Dustin Johnson (+1800)
Daniel Berger (+2000)
Sung-Jae Im (+2200)
Sam Burns (+2500)
Tony Finau (+2500)
Scott Scheffler (+2500)
Will Zalatoris (+2800)

Betting Odds from SugarHouse New Jersey. In ColoradoNew JerseyIllinois or Indiana, or Virginia? Click our link and use promo code 250MATCH to get 100% deposit bonus up to $250!

Use the PGA Model to look at line movements at our partnered sportsbook. With such massive odds disparities, line movement numbers are relative to opening odds for each golfer. Not all similar number moves are the same.

Weather:

Despite the location, there shouldn't be any wind concerns or advantages for this week's event outside of perhaps Friday for Showdown contests.

Course Info:

Course: Torrey Pines South Course (San Diego, CA) | 54 holes played here if you make the cut
Length: 7,700+
Par: Par 72

Course: Torrey Pines North Course (San Diego, CA) | 18 holes played here
Length: 7,200+
Par: Par 72

Grass Type: Fairways: Bermuda| Rough: Kikuyu| Greens: Poa Annua (South) and Bentgrass (North)
Likely winning score: -8 to -13

Course attributes: Wind Forecast - Wed and Thurs look calm for the pre-cut action.  Friday could see wind affect scoring. | Everyone will play 18 at the South Course and 18 at the North Course.  All 36 holes after the cut at the South Course.  | Tourney is trying a new schedule of running Wednesday to Saturday to avoid the Sunday NFL games | The South Course is long and challenging.  It has hosted multiple US Opens.  You cannot fake it here.  | Length is the most preferred attribute with course experience and positive putting on poa a close second | Rough is thick around the narrow fairways and the greens.

Player attributes we want: Long bombers | Total driving (distance + accuracy) | Did I mention being long helps here? | Positive course history | Positive putting splits on poa | Positive history on West Coast events with poa greens | All things being equal, this is a week to overlook the short game deficiencies on the better ball strikers.

Key Stats:

PGA has a lot of data available for you to consider. This week, the following stats are important. This changes week to week based on course characteristics in PGA DFS. 

Ball Striking
Birdies Made
Approach
Driving Distance
3-Putts Avoided
Putting Variance* -
custom Occupy Fantasy analysis built into the Occupy Model

Weekly Transparency:

We'll use this section to track my top plays throughout the season. Here are the results from the last Plug:

Davis Riley (+33)
Taylor Moore (+20)
Adam Svensson (+41)
Seamus Power (+33)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+21)
Michael Thompson (-7)

Others I liked more than the field: Hardy (+18), McCumber (+8), Snedeker (+56), Rahm (-3) and SW Kim (+43).

The plus/minus number is the amount above or below the player scored when compared to their pre-tournament expected fantasy points based on their DK salary number.  Note that these totals will always be wonky / overly negative when the course plays difficult due to the lack of fantasy scoring for birdies etc. – and when the course plays extremely easy, the +/- scores will always be overly positive.  This all evens itself out over a long timeframe.

2022 Running Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +412 fantasy points over expected. +141 at Am Ex. 🔥
2022 Running Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +377 fantasy points over expected. +122 at Am Ex. 🔥

2021 Running Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +564 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
2021 Running Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +167 fantasy points over expected. 🔥

Final 2020 Plus/Minus Total for Plug Writeups: +621 fantasy points over expected. 🔥
Final 2020 Plus/Minus Total for Others I Like: +356 fantasy points over expected. 🔥

PGA DFS Picks - Top Golfers:

These are the top golfers in my player pool for the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open:

Want to read the rest?

The full PGA DFS Daily Plug is available for members only. Get Niromada's top plays and lineup strategies to give you actionable PGA daily fantasy advice.

Want to read a full PGA DFS Daily Plug before you become a member? Check out the Plug from the Memorial Tournament here.

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