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UFL DAILY PLUG - SHOWDOWN DFS PICKS & ADVICE FOR DRAFTKINGS

UFL DFS PicksThe special edition UFL Championship Daily Plug is intended to give you some tips, picks, and lineup advice for Sunday's contests for DFS and sports betting purposes. The highlights:

    • Player rankings and UFL DFS picks for various contest types
    • Overall slate thoughts
    • Specific lineup constructions for different contest sizes
    • Bankroll and contest recommendations

BEFORE READING:

UPDATES WILL BE IN BLUE AFTER THE PLUG IS PUBLISHED.

Betting Odds:

Spread, Total
BIR -3.5, 42

Team Totals (move)
BIR 22.75 (+0.25)
SA 19.25 (-0.25)

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Injuries/Inactives To Watch:

SA WR Landen Akers (suspended) is inactive, which opens up WR4 reps for other Brahmas like Calvin Turner and Kade Warner.
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RB Pooka Williams Jr. and WR Tavonn Salter are inactive for San Antonio.
WR Isaiah Zuber and RB Larry Rountree III are inactive for Birmingham.

Slate Preview: 

UFL Showdown DFS Picks & Player Rankings:

Below are our preferred plays for different contest types and roster spots. Plays are listed in order of preference. 

Definitions:
Low-Risk: Contests where roughly half the field doubles their entry fee (e.g. H2Hs, Double Ups, etc.)
Small-Field High-Risk: Contests with exponential payouts and/or where a smaller portion of the field gets paid with less than 500 entrants (e.g. Multipliers, Leagues, smaller GPPs)
Large-Field High-Risk: Contests with exponential payouts and/or where a smaller portion of the field gets paid with more than 500 entrants (e.g. Multipliers, Leagues, smaller GPPs)

Low-Risk CPT:

BIR QB Adrian Martinez, SA QB Chase Garbers, BIR DST, SA DST

Low-Risk FLEX:
SA WR Jontre Kirklin, SA RB John Lovett, BIR RB CJ Marable, BIR TE Jace Sternberger

Small-Field High-Risk CPT

SA WR Jontre Kirklin, SA RB John Lovett, BIR RB CJ Marable, BIR WR Deon Cain, BIR TE Jace Sternberger

Small-Field High-Owned FLEX:

All of the above plus: SA WR Justin Smith, SA RB Anthony McFarland, BIR RB Ricky Person Jr., BIR K Chris Blewitt, SA K Ryan Santoso, BIR WR Gary Jennings

Small-Field Low-Owned FLEX:

BIR WR Marlon Williams, SA WR Marquez Stevenson, BIR WR Amari Rodgers, BIR WR Kevin Austin Jr.

Large-Field High-Risk CPT:

SA WR Jontre Kirklin, SA WR Justin Smith, SA RB Anthony McFarland, BIR WR Deon Cain, BIR TE Jace Sternberger, BIR WR Marlon Williams, SA WR Marquez Stevenson

Large-Field High-Risk Trash Plays: 

SA WR Calvin Turner, BIR TE Jordan Thomas, SA TE Alize Mack, BIR WR Binjimen Victor, SA WR K.D. Cannon, SA RB Morgan Ellison, BIR TE Marcus Baugh, SA WR Kade Warner

Slate Thoughts:

  • After 11 weeks of spring football action, the spring season comes to a close this Father's Day. The Birmingham Stallions and the San Antonio Brahmas will play for the inaugural UFL Championship Sunday at 5:00pm EST.
  • This is a tough low-risk slate. We have two offenses who split work in their backfields, so running our typical "lock up all the scoring" low-risk lineups is not a viable strategy on this slate.
  • There's some risk that Birmingham plays two quarterbacks in this game, which makes the Adrian Martinez decision the most important part of this slate. Martinez has a high ceiling given his rushing upside, but if he's benched for Corral, Martinez heavy portfolios will have a tough time reaching the promised land. We expect Chase Garbers to get all the snaps for San Antonio.
  • If you do play Corral in any tournament lineups, it's worth considering Brahmas DST in that lineup - thesis here being Corral likely plays enough to be worth his salary in situations where Martinez has struggled and/or turned the ball over.
  • All of this uncertainty at QB and RB leads us to believe the best strategy in this game is the same strategy that has led to victory time and time again on football showdown slates: WR/TE CPT lineups in large field tournaments.
  • Since 2018, WR/TE CPTs have accounted for just under 48% (!) of all winning lineups in primetime, large-field NFL showdown contests on DraftKings. RBs have accounted for just under 28% of winning CPTs.
  • We have the rare chance to a.) differentiate from QB CPT heavy builds by the field and b.) play DraftKings football showdown more optimally with lower owned WR/TE and RB CPT plays as a result.
  • If you've just recently discovered UFL, be aware of the one major rule change for fantasy scoring: kickers do not kick extra points. There are only 1, 2 and 3 point offensive conversions. This lowers the scoring expectation for kickers tremendously.
  • Our projections lean San Antonio heavy, so you'll be naturally different if you choose to ride with "3-3" and "4-2" San Antonio constructions on this slate.
  • We expect most people playing this slate won entries to the $40K UFL Championship Special, which qualifies as a large field, high-risk contest. Simply put, stick to the general strategies for that contest type that we've written below, with any player pool related exceptions we've highlighted in that strategy section.

Low Risk Strategy:

DraftKings:

In general: Attempt to lock up all of the scoring on the slate by rostering both QBs, both teams’ starting RBs, and filling in with kickers or defenses (preferably from the favored team). CPT a QB or value play (in order to fit more high-floor players in your FLEX spots). 

For this slate: Not the best low-risk slate with two split backfields. Prioritize Martinez/Garbers CPT lineups, or use the D/STs to fit an additional stud at flex. Reminder: no kicker extra points in UFL, so the defenses have more scoring opportunities than the kickers, who can only score via field goal.

Small-Field High Risk Strategy:

DraftKings:

In general: Start your lineup with a CPT who isn’t projected for more than 20% CPT ownership. Fill 4 of your FLEX spots with high-floor, high-owned low-risk options. The final FLEX spot should be a <20% owned player. Do not worry about leaving salary on the table to be unique.

For this slate: Leave more salary over than usual, give a boost to DSTs, and don’t be afraid to favor mid range skill position players over QBs. Top CPT options include Martinez, Garbers, Kirklin, Lovett, Marable, McFarland, Cain and Sternberger.

Large-Field High Risk / Mass Multi-Entry Strategy:

DraftKings:

In general: Follow the guidelines outlined in the NFL Showdown Strategy Guide to ensure proper correlation and relatively unique lineups. Max of $49,500 total salary, using less for chalkier lineups and/or higher risk/reward tolerance.

For this slate: Pretty much use the same strategy as DK small-field except lower your max salary threshold. On slates like this, it is fine to leave up to 5-6k in salary on the table. Leave more salary over than usual, give a boost to DSTs, and don’t be afraid to favor mid range skill position players over QBs. Top CPT options include the small field CPTs above, but strongly consider the cheaper, high upside options like Smith, Williams and Stevenson at pass catcher in this contest type. You can fit more high floor studs at flex with these plays in your CPT spot.

Bankroll Allocation:

Use 1-2% of your bankroll. With tricky low-risk slates and a lot of skill position FLEX options to choose from, this slate is a bit tricky. Keep allocation on the tighter side tonight.

Contest Selection:

Satellites to target: 

Small bankrolls -- NFL $15M Best Ball Millionaire, 7-12 WNBA Friday Frenzy
Larger bankrolls -- all of the above plus NFL Best Ball $4M Monster Millionaire

Reminders:

Read our Showdown Guide, co-authored by the Run the Sims' Justin Freeman, that details everything you need to know for NFL Showdown slates. 

You can read more about risk tolerance and contest selection in our Ultimate Guide to Becoming a Profitable DFS Player.