Yahoo Bankroll Challenge, Week 38: NFL Week 3
For more information on the Yahoo Bankroll Challenge and to read the recap from each week, click here.
We bounced back in Week 3! After a disappointing Week 2 where my bankroll returned to its pre-Week 1 level, all of my lineups cashed in some format in Week 3 for a net profit of $239. Now, heading into Week 4 -- and where my historical ROI starts to skyrocket -- my bankroll is at the highest its been in this challenge.
Here’s where we sit after NFL Week 3:
NFL Week 2 balance: $474.27
NFL Week 3 balance: $713.02
NFL Week 2 YSRP balance: 1,671
NFL Week 3 YSRP balance: 1,879
Here are some of the strategies I used this week with advice on how to implement them on other DFS sites:
Strategy #1: Having a contingency plan for late games
The biggest decision for NFL DFS contests in Week 3 was handling the Dalvin Cook/Alexander Mattison situation. On FanDuel and Yahoo specifically, where he was extremely underpriced if Cook sat, Mattison was near must-play status. But, the Vikings didn’t play until the 4pm window, and we wouldn’t get official confirmation on Cook’s status until after the 1pm games kicked off.
However, with the type of injury Cook sustained, his lack of practice, and the national reporting on Sunday morning, I felt pretty confident that he would miss Sunday’s game. So, I made the easy decision to roster Mattison in all three of my Yahoo lineups.
But, I absolutely needed to have a contingency plan in the event that Cook’s status improved and he was active. His availability would ruin the entire Minnesota backfield’s fantasy outlook, so I would need to swap off Mattison.
There weren’t amazing options at 4pm, but I felt good enough with Kenyan Drake at the same price that if it came down to it, I could make a direct 1 for 1 swap if we got Cook news before 4pm.
It’s a balance of risk/reward. Rostering Kenyan Drake was considerably worse than if I chose not to roster Mattison/Drake before 1pm, and instead entered a completely different lineup to avoid the Minnesota situation. However, given the information we had before lock, I felt that the chances Cook missed vastly outweighed the loss of potential points if I had to swap over to Drake.
Every decision we make in NFL DFS (and life) has a range of outcomes. On Sunday, I felt most of the outcomes when rostering Mattison were overwhelmingly positive.
How to implement this on FanDuel or DraftKings: Have a plan in place for potential swaps -- especially in smaller contests -- for the late games. For one, you need to be aware if you can even make the swaps given time constraints, games ending and starting at the same time, etc. In some cases (like FD in Week 3), it's not a simple 1 for 1 swap. On DK, you can't even global swap for a player that's more expensive even if he fits in every lineup. So not only knowing what you're going to do with a swap, you also need to know logistically how you're going to make the swap.
NFL Week 3’s Pivotal Moment
3x1 stacking Matthew Stafford and the Rams game was wildly profitable -- that lineup alone returned more than $170. Like Weeks 1 and 2, I was able to identify the best Yahoo plays (something I believe I will consistently be able to do), but this week, one of the stacks truly exploded, giving me a top 10 percentile ROI.
Unfortunately, I’m still not in the bankroll spot where I can start hammering 150-max contests. I’m eyeing the $1 150-max ($4K to 1st) in particular. My goal is to keep playing 3 main lineups, then once I hit the $1K bankroll mark, add in $150 in allocation to that 150-max each week. There are still 13 weeks left in the calendar year, so there’s plenty of time to kick this challenge into high gear. Once that 150-max transition occurs, we’re just 1-2 wins away from completing the challenge.
For any questions about the bankroll challenge, hit up Brian on Twitter. For more information on bankroll management, contest selection, and long-term DFS strategy, read our flagship e-book, The Ultimate Guide.