Yahoo Bankroll Challenge, Week 42: NFL Week 7
For more information on the Yahoo Bankroll Challenge and to read the recap from each week, click here.
In Week 7, one of my three lineups performed above expectations and finished in the top 5-10 percent of most contests. However, my other two lineups blanked.
As a result, I essentially broke even for the week.
I discussed in last week’s Next Steps that I didn’t have the bankroll to 150-max, so I stuck with the three lineup approach once again.
The clock is ticking...
Here’s where we sit after NFL Week 7:
NFL Week 6 balance: $303.19
NFL Week 7 balance: $293.44
NFL Week 6 YSRP balance: 2,762
NFL Week 7 YSRP balance: 3,054
Here are some of the strategies I used this week with advice on how to implement them on other DFS sites:
Strategy #1: Chalk stud WRs outside of cheap game stacks
After getting destroyed by Cooper Kupp on FanDuel and DraftKings this past weekend, I just had to dig into some data to see how often chalk stud WRs like Kupp were making optimal lineups this season.
We detailed the findings during this week’s Million Dollar Mission, if you want to check it out.
I’m always hesitant to play those popular, expensive WRs because of the inherent variance in the position, but it’s hard to argue the floor/ceiling combination of guys like Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp.
When playing small-field high-risk contests -- like I’m mostly playing on Yahoo -- you don’t need to be perfect to win, and playing stud WRs can solidify the floor of your lineup while taking shots elsewhere.
For instance, I stacked the Raiders-Eagles game in one lineup. The four man stack of Carr, Jacobs, Edwards, and Goedert combined for just 35 percent of the salary cap and were rostered at just 10 percent on average. No one played this game stack in my contests, so there’s no need to get different or cute or unique outside of it -- just play the best plays. Especially in a year where RB is usually devoid of high volume plays, there’s no point in saving salary or ownership if I’m not going to play guys with 10 point floors and 40 point ceilings.
And I did with Kupp and Adams, helping to nearly 4X my return on this lineup’s entry fees.
How to implement this on FanDuel or DraftKings: Especially in small field contests, don't shy away from popular stud WRs if you can fit them into your lineup construction.
NFL Week 7's Pivotal Moment
My 3x1 Raiders stack was jumping up my contest leaderboards during the 4pm window, and Josh Jacobs was a big part with his 14.3 points before halftime. Unfortunately, he was injured late in the second quarter and immediately ruled out for the game, instantly converting my 3x1 stack to a 2x1 stack.
Despite breaking even this week, I still feel incredibly confident in my 3-max process, especially compared to my 150-max process the week before. However, time is running out with just 8-9 weeks left in the challenge.
It’s eerily reminiscent of my poker tournament days, where you would have a dwindling stack as blinds were increasing and the bubble was approaching. In order to have a shot to go deep in the tournament, you have to play aggressively, even when the risk is busting. This analogy only applies in the lens of a bankroll challenge like this one, obviously, as you’d never want to go all in with your normal DFS bankroll.
So at what point do I go all in? We’re getting close if the bankroll doesn’t multiply soon!
Week 8 Yahoo Tournament Takes Podcast with Kirkdiese of RotoGrinders coming soon
For any questions about the bankroll challenge, hit up Brian on Twitter. For more information on bankroll management, contest selection, and long-term DFS strategy, read our flagship e-book, The Ultimate Guide.